Winston Peters’ win in Northland yesterday was based on turnout that was significantly higher than turnout for any other recent by election. And occurred in no small part because of some adept handling of messaging of support by Andrew Little.
Is anyone else experiencing a bit of political shellshock?
Well, it’s pretty much a done deal now. Winston’s going to win Northland. But who’s the biggest loser?
The first polls in the Northland by-election are grim reading for National. It looks likely that Winston will win and National will lose their Parliamentary majority. Have the Tories snatched defeat from the jaws of victory?
I’ve been getting tired of the fantasy elections that some political commentators seem to enjoy playing. Currently the fantasises is in Northland, with the same old tiresome lines. It is a pity that most of those playing this game don’t ever seem to think about the behaviours of real voters, real candidates, and real parties.
NZ First leader Winston Peters is to stand in the Northland by-election. A three way race between NZ First, Labour and National will make for an interesting campaign and factors outside of National’s control may determine the result.
Sometime in the next few days, Winston Peters will announce whether or not he will stand in the Northland by-election. He should run unchallenged by the left and Labour and the Greens should endorse him for the greater good.
Claire Trevett in the NZ Herald has an article on her chosen top MP tweeters, now that Judith Collins has vacated her (alleged) position as “Minister of Twitter” Not quite my list of top tweeters… and yours?
bspout at Local Bodies was well up on the Greens list, but as the Greens only got 10%, he didn’t get into parliament. But as he says, with Labour navel gazing and NZ First lacking experience, the greens are currently the only effective opposition at present.
Perhaps it is time for activists to have two parties. The one that specialises in electorates and the one that focuses on party vote. Because it is becoming evident that Labour is unlikely to ever manage to make the transition to being a MMP party. Their MPs clearly don’t care for the party or the brand.
Jackal has compiled a number of the reasons why NZ First and particularly Winston Peters are unlikely to form a coalition or even to support National and John Key. Probably the way that National through their sockpuppets Act, David Farrar, and Whaleoil attacked with spurious charges in 2008. That he came back must have been a shock…
Landline polls are a traditional gripe for lefties. But this election polls look seriously out of whack with reality. Is National at 55%, 50%, 48% or 46%? But it’s always far too large for a party at National’s current stage in the political cycle. Just unbelievable and highly unlikely.
The choice for NZ voters is becoming clearer in the last days of the 2014 election. The irony is that after John Key’s scaremongering, our options are a three-headed coalition of natural allies versus a five-or-six headed hydra of extremists and sworn enemies.
Labour are going to lead the next Government. So what’s a Tory voter to do to keep the damge to a minimum? If the possibility of Hone Harawira and Laila Harre being Ministers in the Cunliffe administration is keeping you up at night, then Te Reo Putake has the answer.
Last night the opening party political addresses were broadcast on TV One, simultaneous with an All Blacks match and a live-tweeted crowd viewing of Labyrinth. So if you missed out (and don’t follow my every thought on Twitter), here’s my reaction! [Update: more links to videos!]
I think I know someone who 5 weeks out from an election who thinks he has just had a few percent tacked on to his parties votes. After all remember the “cup of tea” in Epsom last election. And he may have read some parts of the book?
Dave Kennedy (bsprout) looks at the increasingly parlous current state of the smaller parties. He is also looking forward to the Green party campaign launch this weekend in Auckland. Updated with Green campaign launch details.
On the right there’s one big party who have the lion’s share of the vote, and a smattering of odd little parties at the kids’ table fighting for scraps and key electorates. It’s one of the reasons National continues to poll so highly: if you’re a rightwing voter, you don’t have any other viable options.
It’s been an interesting few days in the battle for Te Tai Tokerau. Never mind the bollocks, people. The question for Labour isn’t should we stand aside for Hone in the north or Mana/IP anywhere else. The question is ‘do we need ’em?’. The answer is looking more and more like no.
It is a shorter day today. More organisational.
Leading up to Winston Peters speech later today where he is promising about 9 policy announcements.
Campaign slogan “It’s common sense”
Updated: 14:46
At the Alexandra Park racecourse for the NZ First conference.Just listened to Paddy Gower in his interview with Winston Peters. The interesting bit was the questioning about Winston standing in East Coast Bays if Steven Joyce/John Key make a deal with the conservatives and Murray McCully stands aside. That will be interesting, and I suspect under those circumstances that he’d get a lot of votes.
It looks like I’ll be able to head to the NZ First conference at Alexandra Park racecourse on the weekend as media. This election the position of NZ First party members is probably going to be crucial for any coalition that forms. In this rather long post I explain my (and other peoples) thinking on possible coalition results for National after the election. They aren’t good because they really depend on a political group that National has been denigrating for quite a while.
At Rob Salmond’s briefing to Labour’s Congress over the weekend, he made a point about National’s performance in recent campaigns, which was later picked up in David Cunliffe’s speech.
National has dropped six percent each time. For those interested, here is the data that sits beneath this claim.
It is no wonder that John Key is worried when 3 months out from an election they are sitting on less than 50%, with dead and dying coalition partners.
Allow me to fly in the face of an accepted truth in NZ politics by saying this: there is absolutely nothing undemocratic about the MMP “coat-tail” rules.
Yesterday Rob Salmond commented on Labour’s two likeliest options for coalition partners after the 2014 election, and had some interesting things to say […]
I think the pundits misjudge Peters. I think he wants a major, polity-based legacy in the 2014-2017 term, as well as baubles. Only the left can offer this. With the left, Peters can be The Man who Saved the Power Companies. National cannot compete with that. Which gives everyone on the left, including the Greens, some leverage. So count me out of the consensus that Winston in Cabinet means no Greens in Cabinet. I see a feasible three-way deal on the horizon.
The first rule of politics is learn how to count. And, as much as we would all like to see Labour and the Greens govern by themselves, 13 and 32 don’t add up to 50
That’ll be why, when the Greens came to Labour with a plan to campaign together, Labour said no.
Last night, via One News, the public became aware that the Greens had proposed a pre-election coalition with Labour, but Labour had rejected it. While the Greens’ offer is nothing unusual internationally, New Zealand’s comparatively fair electoral system doesn’t provide Labour much incentive to accept it. Which, I think, makes Labour’s rejection of the proposal much less noteworthy.
From an environmental economics perspective, mining is a wealth transfer, shifting public wealth (minerals) into private profits of mining companies. Along the way, it creates jobs, but it is basically spending capital. When the resources run out or become unprofitable to extract the jobs disappear and a regional economy geared solely to resource extraction withers and dies. NZ First wants to change that.
Three years ago National announced a full term election date and ruled out going into coalition with NZ First. Fast forward to now and we are having an early election and Key is not ruling out going into coalition with Peters. Get the sense that National is becoming desperate?
Whenever the media report on polls, they get accused of all manner of biases by the blinkered commentariat. Most of it is nonsense, of course. But some criticism of the polling methods themselves may have more merit that Rob Salmond first thought. While he is not yelling “fire” at this stage, he does think there may be smoke. Something that he did not think that three years ago.
John Key has made a major strategic mistake with his early announcement of the parties National could go into government with. In framing the 2014 campaign as a contest between two blocs he has given away National’s trump card for gaining Winston’s support – support the largest party. Opportunity time for a positive alternative from Labour/Greens.
I’ve been thinking about what next years’ election is going to be like. Not like 2011 that’s for sure. Labour was in the doldrums and ran a largely negative campaign. Let’s assume that Labour has learnt its lesson about running an effective campaign and ticks all the boxes. The secret weapon that Labour and the Greens have eschewed for as many elections as I can remember is actually working together.
Te Reo Putake speculates on exactly what plan that National and John Key have to distort the MMP review and Iain Lee Galloway’s private members bill so that it allows them to stay in power. Most probably by gifting Crazy Colin and the Conservatives with several chances to get several partners into parliament while discarding the husks of their former coalition partners.
Central Auckland, gated city candidates get cosy about their grass verges. The west has a crisis in affordable rents & homelessness. Labour & Nats housing policies bow to the middle class home ownership agenda. Greens & Mana look to state & council housing.
John Key tries to smear the winner of Labour’s democratic leadership contest as “far left”, while his government continues in its anti-democratic, plutocratic ways: sale of Meridian to avoid referendum; Joyce’s Broadband pricing “arm twisting”.
