Official Election results are out. Carmel Sepuloni takes Waitakere back for Labour by 11 votes, and National loses one seat to the Greens. MMP wins by a mile. Well done Carmel – I’m really glad she stays in Parliament. I don’t think a recount will change anything – I scrutineered the official count last election and the people doing it were very very careful.
Party reform is high on the agenda of the ALP conference, being held in Sydney this weekend. The conference is being carried live on Sky. Party reform is also high on the agenda of the NZLP – President Moira Coatsworth announced that Labour would conduct an organisational review after the election in her speech to Labour’s Conference in May. It was a prescient move.
Have just received an email from Labour’s President Moira Coatsworth. Phil Goff and Annette King to resign Labour’s leadership effective December 13. Moira is urging all Party members to make their views known to their MPs about the new leadership.The caucus will make the decision but members will have their say. Good.
One can understand why John Key is ‘speed dating” to form a one-seat majority in Parliament. His honeymoon is likely to be a lot shorter in the next term of government. It is quite different for Labour. The caucus would be wise not to rush to decide who leads Labour into the next election.
I agree with Anthony Hubbard in today’s SST “Turning the spin around” – not yet on-line. The most outrageous piece of spin in the election was Chief Ombudsman Beverley Wakem’s justification for allowing the Treasury to refuse to release documents relating to asset sales as requested by TV1, the Greens and Labour. Hubbard calls it a cop-out and a cave-in – he’s right.
While the police are executing a search warrant at the Herald on Sunday at John Key’s request, perhaps they might be able to spare the time to follow up Section 174 of the Crimes Act re Michael Laws on Radio Live advocating shooting their journalists. It carries a ten-year prison sentence. Doesn’t need a fishing expedition either.
Key’s poodle blogs are barking about Labour’s state house attack ad. Key told us again tonight on TV3 he too was “brought up in a state house.” What it taught him though is that “it was a great marketing ploy.” What a fraud.
Key has now officially The National Party Preservation Society to try to kill off MMP. As I predicted in June, Farrar has now come out in support, attacking political scientist John Johansson for saying Key’s decision to speak out against MMP smells of partisan greed and hubris. It does; it was the tactic all along.
Economist Dr Rhema Vaithianathan from Auckland University will discuss Privatisation New Zealand Style, looking at the economic logic and evidence on privatisation of utilities and ask whether it will alleviate New Zealand’s current economic problems. St John’s Church, cnr Willis and Dixon, Wellington, Monday 14th Nov 5:30pm. All welcome. Register at Fabian Society www.fabians.org.nz.
In 2005 Labour wrote to State House tenants with a warning “Don’t let National sell your house.” We were criticised for scaring people. Now Tamaki residents have got the real letters. And the boot. Same old National.
Brent Sheather assesses the case for asset sales in today’s Herald. He cuts through the crap and concludes “selling the SOEs doesn’t look all that clever, particularly from the perspective of young people and those other sectors of society who won’t be able to participate in the offers in any material way. This is likely to be at least half the population.” He looks at who really benefits, and it’s the fortunate few once again.
Bill Rosenberg from the NZCTU and Massey’s School of Banking Studies David Tripe will speak tomorrow at St John’s Church in Wellington at 5:30pm on the credit down grade and the banks. All welcome, register at www.fabians.org.nz. Bernard Hickey in today’s Herald was also interesting about the banks’ profits.
On Backbenches last night Nikki Kaye showed as an angry finger-wagger who thinks the most important issue facing the country is to keep wages down for young people. Kaye looked like a politician under pressure, and showed why she avoids debate with the impressive Jacinda Ardern. Forward-looking and articulate, Ardern had the best lines of the night. Auckland Central could be a very interesting contest.
Over 100 meat workers have now been locked out for 10 days at the Canterbury Meat Packers works in Rangitikei. They are told they must sign an agreement that cuts pay by 25% and loses conditions in order to return to work. Some migrant workers face deportation if they lose their jobs. It’s a disgrace; they all need our support. Here’s how you can help.
National’s “Future Fund” asset-sale money will be spent on modernising schools we are told. Is the future they have in mind like Conservative Education Minister Michael Gove’s so-called “free schools” now being set up in Britain? It would be no surprise if our public assets were sold down by National to pay for private interests to get a stake in the school system here. We shouldn’t be under any illusions that the agenda is just short-term.
Labour’s savings policy is taking care of future generations by making KiwiSaver universal and compulsory for all wage and salary earners, by re-starting contributions to the New Zealand Super Fund, and by gradually increasing the age of eligibility for New Zealand Super from 65 to 67 over a 22 year period. Labour is taking the decisions that are right for tomorrow, rather than the easy option today.
Paddy Gower at TV3 reveals Lord Ashcroft, billionaire Tory donor and International Democratic Union treasurer, has come to talk to Key again. Just discussed politics generally, said Key. Politics yes, generally no. Ashcroft’s interests are now devoted to polling and blog communication, and he is very interested in our election. Having seen Cameron miss out on a majority, he’ll want to help Key to one here.
The meeting of European Finance Ministers set for Wednesday that was supposed to put in place the framework for the Euro support has been cancelled. Certainty appears ever more elusive. The downside scenario to Treasury’s PREFU begins to look like the most realistic option. It is time our media took off the rose-tinted spectacles and asked some hard questions of the government in the run-up to the election.
Thierry Dusautoir thoroughly deserved the player of the year at the IRB awards last night. And how well he took it – with praise for the All Blacks, addressed to Richie McCaw, and with words from the heart spoken to his team. We all saw on Sunday what a player he was, and he showed us all last night what a leader he was. Grace in defeat does not diminish anyone. Grace in victory is important too – we could have done better.
The first leaders debate took place on Native Affairs tonight. Key and Goff were interviewed by Julian Wilcox. Key was lacklustre – if New Zealanders were finding it tough to make ends meet it was all down to global circumstance, nothing to do with him. Goff by contrast was impressive – blew that argument apart with the observation that it was the choices Key’s government made inside New Zealand that mattered. One could see why Key does not like being face to face with an incisive interviewer. [Eddie: Video now up]
David Cameron has cancelled his planned trip to Japan and New Zealand. He is facing a backbench revolt over European Union membership at the same time as he is trying to intervene in the crucial financial summit trying to sort out problems in the Euro zone on Wednesday. Oh well, one less photo op for John Key – perhaps its just as well as Britain’s future isn’t getting brighter.
Mission accomplished. Meanwhile Cameron comes to urge Key to keep our troops in Afghanistan.
National’s election billboards focus on National’s “Brighter Future” plan. They’re not a plan, more like a wish-list for the tooth fairy. Bill board No 1 says “End the deficit sooner”. Sooner than what? This year’s budget? Not likely according to Brian Gaynor in today’s Herald. Pollyanna John promised a brighter future in 2008 – that hasn’t happened and the rerun may be wearing very thin.
The Broadcasting Standards Authority has decided that Key’s hour-long promotional programme on RadioLive was not an election programme.
It will now be very interesting to see what the Electoral Commission decides in relation to advertising complaints.
Key’s staff spun to media that his Radio Live show was ok if he didn’t discuss politics, saying the station had received advice from the Electoral Commission that “political content’ could breach rules. That didn’t sound right to me, so I asked the Commission what they actually said.
Three Labour MPs gave their valedictories last night; Lynn Pillay, Pete Hodgson, and Jim Anderton in that order. Jim’s career path in political employment was a bit roundabout, Lynn’s the shortest (she’ll kill me for that!), and Pete’s spell the longest. Most valedictories speak of past achievement. Unusually, Pete Hodgson focussed more on the future, so his valedictory became manifesto and challenge. Poverty and sustainability were the main themes – read more here.
Republicans have accused President Obama of waging class war by calling for tax increases on the rich. Warren Buffet goes straight to the result and declares the rich have won. There may be more battles to come however – Buffet is in favour of higher taxes on the rich in the interests of fairness. He should have been on the Tax Working Group.
Asset sales are on the agenda before the election. Michael Fay, strangely, is leading a coalition of underbidders for the Crafar farms against a bid from China worth $300 million more. According to the Waikato Times, New Zealanders have forgotten Fay’s involvement in the toxic asset sales of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s under both Labour and National governments. That would be a pity.
One of the criticisms levelled at MMP is that it means the tail wags the dog. But if it wasn’t for the Alliance, the Greens and New Zealand first, we wouldn’t have Kiwibank, home insulation, or the Gold Card. We wouldn’t have a competitive New Zealand-owned bank, healthy homes for families who need it, and opportunities for social interaction for seniors. I say thanks to those parties and to MMP.
Professor Robert Wade of the London School of Economics and author of the acclaimed Governing the Market will speak on this topic in association with Victoria University School of Government at Lecture Theatre 2, Rutherford House, Wellington at 6pm on Thursday 22nd September. Read more for abstract. Register at www.fabians.org.nz.
The Greens launched their economic policy today – I attended on behalf of the Fabian Society. Titled “100,000 green jobs for New Zealanders, it follows their plan to bring 100,000 children out of poverty by 2014. The focus was on leveraging green priorities, using direct government investment, changing the way state-owned companies work, and shifting the drivers for green jobs in the private sector.
Denmark has ended the 10-year reign of the right supported by the anti-immigration Muslim-baiting Danish People’s party. The Social Democrats headed by their first woman PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt will move away from the right’s favoured austerity and spending cuts to more investment in education, welfare and infrastructure. Austerity isn’t working in Britain, and Denmark is worth watching for all kinds of reasons.
Respected Financial Times journalist Martin Wolf argues that the last thing we need in a world of excess saving is for creditworthy governments to cut their borrowing. He presents evidence that shows that fiscal deficits are helpful not because they return the economy to swiftly to health but because they promote the (required) painfully slow healing. If the debt diagnosis is wrong then so is the asset sales cure.
Robert Reich writes about the impact of growing inequality in the United States. He has a graphic that shows the effects over the past hundred years. As the US and Europe come closer to their Niagara fall, the logic is compelling. Edmund Burke’s saying that those who don’t know their history are destined to repeat it comes to mind.
Treasury has now adopted their masters’ political line on income statistics. The latest Treasury MEI uses average after-tax wages to argue that an average worker is better off by 2% since October 2010. In real terms the average worker’s gross wage less inflation means they are 1% worse off. The average of $50,000 a year is a long way above the median wage as indicated by the 2009 IRD distribution figures. In reality a few are hugely better off, some are ok, and most are still worse off.
Labour’s Charles Chauvel is campaigning hard in Ohariu, and would certainly bring a fresh approach and much more energy to representing the electorate. The polls are close, so close that John Key has had to come out to Ohariu’s small party launch to support Dunne. This may backfire – word is that many people in the electorate don’t like being told how to vote.
