We’re now experiencing the worst drought in the North Island in recorded history. It comes just five years after the previous severe drought and there was a lesser one in between. Let’s not beat around the bush, it’s climate change. Bill English came very close on Monday to admitting that climate change induced-droughts will make bailouts unsustainable.
So, John Key is heading back from yet another overly long ‘trade mission’ that seemed to involve little in the way of actual meetings and a lot in the way of trying on silly hats. His only act of note was somehow managing to snub our biggest export destination in the region at a sensitive time. But how well is the ‘wheeler and dealer’ doing, in his own terms?
Analysts are talking about risks of investing in Mighty River Power in the media today. Weather, electricity demand, overseas expansion. I’ll tell you what would make me think twice: everyone acknowledges the power companies over charge. Right now, the government has 400m reasons a year not to do anything about it. But that’s about to change.
National’s going to spend a million taxpayer dollars just on advertising trying to convince Kiwis to sign up to buy something we already own and just in the ‘pre-registration’ phase of the Mighty River sale. God knows what the full cost of the sale will be. They’ve wasted $26m already and seem determined to keep throwing good money after bad while ignoring Kiwis’ howls of protest.
I think the Labour reshuffle is quite clever in how it signals the portfolios that its willing to give to the Greens and encourages them to set about being lead opposition spokespeople on those topics. Sure, the reshuffle has some weird stuff in it – ChCh Earthquake spokesperson a backbencher!, 6 ex-staffers in the top 10, Mallard’s ‘demotion’ that isn’t. But there’s some smarts there too.
A look at Solid Energy’s books highlights the diseased culture of the corporate elite in this country and National’s failed bet on fossil fuels. The blistering pace that executives’ ridiculous paypackets rose at shows a culture of pocket-lining in the company. The massive expansion of liabilities in the lignite bet, which has crippled the company, was part of National’s fossil fuels strategy.
The Auditor-General’s report catalogues a dirty deal hatched between Key’s office and SkyCity execs to give SkyCity more pokies ‘in return for’ a convention centre. It shows the bidding process was a farce and reveals that the whole ‘trade-off’ of pokies for convention centre is a con hatched by SkyCity and the Nats. And there’s a deeper issue.
We knew from overseas that military-style boot camps are expensive, don’t reduce recidivism, and breed sadistic violence towards inmates. It’s not just overseas experience; these were all reasons we got rid of borstals. National knew this when they introduced boot camps but they did it anyway for the populism. Now, boot camps have failed again, can we stop this stupidity?
The Greens have revealed that National has spent $26m on asset sales so far. They haven’t even sold anything yet! They haven’t even really begun the sales process! And they’ve wasted $26m of our money. The bill’s going to get a whole lot longer if the sales actually go ahead. There’s $106m budgeted for the sales and huge unbudgeted costs like the looters’ bonus
Why are Treasury and Reserve Bank presenting clearly trumped up numbers to pretend the economy is doing better than it is? They’ve been caught out lying that the banks weren’t excessively profitable by international standards, that private electricity suppliers aren’t more expensive, and that we’re not unequal by OECD standards. Now, the Reserve Bank is telling blatant lies about the manufacturing sector.
There’s a lot of talk about the benefits of moving to a green, sustainable economy but details on what that looks like in practice in New Zealand are often frustratingly thin. Greenpeace is releasing a report – The Future is Here – that puts meat on the bones. The main thing is getting us off expensive, polluting, imported oil and on to clean, local energy.
Key and Shearer want 4 year terms. Why? Efficiency, they reckon. 3 years is ‘too short to govern’. Well, they wouldn’t be the first politicians to argue that less democracy would be more ‘efficient’. In New Zealand, we are unique among democracies in the degree to which power is held by the government. Regular opportunities to vote the bastards out is all we have.
When was the last time you heard John Key promise 170,000 new jobs? Just before the election in 2011, I reckon. Well, this last year 30,000 jobs were lost. Put that in context, it’s the 3rd largest annual job loss in history. The largest was 1988 as Douglas put the economy to the sword. The next was 2009 during the recession. And now, we’re losing 600 jobs a week during the ‘recovery’.
Oamaru lost 192 jobs on Thursday as Summit Wool Spinners closed its doors. The knock-down effect could claim hundreds more. Events like this can cripple a small town and consign the workers to long-term unemployment. Now, the Greens have revealed that long-term unemployment has quadrupled with John Key at the helm.
While Labour flounders around talking about 4 bedroom houses for $485,000 (who wants a four bedroom house, anyway), Metiria Turei cut to the quick in a question to Key: “has he never visited his own electorate and taken a look at homes such as those on Hobsonville Road, Cyril Crescent, and Mona Vale that are stand-alone family homes costing around $300,000?”
More work in prisons, fewer mail deliveries, fewer WoF checks. I won’t say these are bad policies – done right there’s some merits. But I will point out this: 2,000 job losses from fewer WoF checks, up to 3,000 jobs gone with three day a week delivery, and the very real risk of prison labour displacing free workers. So much for a relentless focus on jobs.
Some people who don’t really understand economics think it’s all about confidence – if business would be more confident, they would then invest more and hire more people. In truth, confidence is merely an indicator that the fundamentals for growth are right. So, when Joyce accuses manufacturing bosses of ‘talking down’ the economy, he’s missing the point. Probably intentionally.
Key’s government is falling apart, yet one fact remains stubbornly true: walk down the street and nearly 1 in every 2 people you see supports National, while less than 1 in 3 supports Labour (and the 1 in 8 who support the Greens don’t quite make up the difference). When tonight’s Roy Morgan came out I put down my whisky and pulled by my Roy Morgan excel doc. It’s some grim reading.
The oil and gas industry employs fewer people than have lost their jobs in manufacturing every 4 months under National. Yet, Joyce devotes […]
For the 5th year running, it’s that time of year, when the economists start promising the recovery is here. (remember ‘green shoots‘ in 2009?) Meanwhile, in the real world, there are twice as many jobless Kiwis as five years ago, and rising. If the pattern holds, later this year the economists will be lamenting the mysterious under-performance of the economy, as petrol hits a record price again.
In December, a cop had his taser taken off him and fired at him. The Police Association said the solution is for cops to be armed. Judith Collins got it right, “if that was a gun [not a Taser] we’d probably be going to a funeral, actually, for a police officer”. On Friday, an armed cop had his gun taken off him. The Police Association’s answer: cops should pull their guns earlier.
On Monday, Steven Joyce promised lots of new jobs in the wood manufacturing industry thanks to the wonders of foreign investment and a do nothing government, and called the Left anti-jobs. On Wednesday, wood manufacturer Norske Skog sacked 110 workers. What’s Joyce’s next trick, attend a funeral, tell the departed to ‘wake up’, and blame the rest of the congregation when he doesn’t?
I went to the supermarket and said “I want your best meat for $9 a kg”. They said I could have pre-cooked sausages or the cheapest mince for that. But I wanted good meat! So I went to other supermarkets and butchers. Some wouldn’t sell me anything for that much, none would supply the quality I wanted. They say I’m mad. But, when this business does it, they’re the victims.
David Shearer recently picked up National’s policy of not contributing to the Cullen Fund while the Government’s in deficit but there’s nothing about being in deficit that alters the case for investing the Cullen Fund. As long as the return exceeds the Crown’s cost of capital, it’s worthwhile. So, how much have the canned contributions cost us so far? $1.2b.
Steven Joyce pops up today in the Herald to promise more jobs. Apparently, the Chinese are going to invest in wood manufacturing here because the power’s cheap. Funny, the power’s been the same price for a while and… um… wood manufacturing has collapsed 15% under Joyce’s watch. Looks like another hollow promise from the least successful economic development minister in history.
Wellington Council has voted to spend some time looking at a new alternative to the Basin Fly-over plan. The government’s response has been to threaten the council that other transport investment in Wellington will be scrapped unless they get their concrete monstrosity built. In related news, NZTA systemically under-estimates the costs and overstates the benefits of roading projects.
So, National’s still on track to surplus in 2014/15, eh? A $66m surplus. Well, don’t be counting those chickens just yet. That projected surplus is just 0.07% of projected spending and revenue that year. That makes wafer thin look fat. And it’s not exactly like Treasury has a good record predicting 2.5 years ahead. But there’s a bigger question: is any surplus worth any price?
In Budget 2011, National made a big song and dance over the projection that ‘they’ would create 170,000 jobs in the next four years. Leaving aside the fact that they were counting jobs from the year before in their four year total, the promise basically rested on creating 57,000 jobs this year. So, what’s the latest update on that figure? … 0.
Transmission Gully is meant to cost about a billion dollars to deliver about half that in benefits, right? Well, thanks to the magic of Public Private Partnerships, National’s managed to triple that cost! If they manage to get the contract signed before the next election, they’ll lock us into annual payments of $120-$130m – totaling $3 billion over 25 years.
Last month, new Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler told Parliament that our banks aren’t excessively profitable – middle of the pack internationally. He was lying.
Paddy Gower looked fit to burst with excitement over ‘Greens and Labour fighting over Finance portfolio‘ last night. Of course, the actual quote not so exciting – just Russel Norman saying it was one portfolio that would be the subject of negotiations in the formation of a Lab/Green govt. But it does raise a valid question – who would be ministers in a Lab/Green govt?
Sure, National is still in the mid-40s and Key will back himself to crucify Shearer in the debates, but his own brand is suffering badly. He’s failed on jobs and increasingly being seen as out of touch. So, is making the news for eating a grasshopper really a smart move?
Dr Russel Norman: Does it not all boil down to the fact that whichever way you cut it, whichever statistics you care to choose, the Government has failed on jobs, unemployment has grown in New Zealand, and the number of jobs in the manufacturing sector has not grown; and is it not time he just admitted it and figured out what to do about it?
On Q+A, Russel Norman and Judith Collins were named politicians of the year. It’s as much about what they have done in this past year as where they are going. Norman has cleverly positioned himself as the voice of the Left on the economy – the economy is the issue and will continue to be so. Collins has softened her image to set herself up to replace Key.
