Graph of the day: 1 in 20 jobs gone in Chch
120 jobs per weekday lost but nothing to worry about. The market will right itself.
Eddie
Key’s own goal on poverty
A bad mistake by John Key in the House yesterday. Phil Goff asked him about the gap between rich and poor. Key cited a new report on falling inequality. But he should have read the report properly. It credits Labour policies for driving down poverty and inequality.
All hail our vampire overlords
How did the wealth of the 151 richest people grow by 10% of GDP when the economy grew only 1.5%? Mostly by revaluing existing assets. Not a lot of ‘wealth creation’ from our self-appointed Randian Heroes, just book changes. But, apparently, we owe everything to the elite and need to let them suck up more of our wealth for themselves.
Let it out
The polls show that New Zealanders, quite rightly, prefer the policies of the Left, such as capital gains tax, over National/ACT’s ‘plan’ to hock off our assets. But the majority still seem to favour returning a Key-led (and Key’s the, um, key) government, even if they won’t like what it does. What the Left needs is Goff to build personal trust with the people.
Political crisis, not debt crisis
The media are reporting the chance of the US defaulting as a ‘debt crisis’, as if the problem is too much debt and people won’t lend to them. It’s not. The US is still borrowing at half the cost we borrow at. The problem is the debt ceiling. A purely political invention that lets lawmakers cut taxes, add spending, and then refuse to allow the resultant borrowing.
Turnaround is fair play
Some are linking Labour’s polling to National’s in 2002. Well, I think it’s worth remembering the other side of the 2002 polls. Labour’s support plunged 13% in the last month of the campaign from 50%+ support to the point where a Nat-led government was a real threat. Then, there was 1996, where Labour went from polling 4th to losing by a hair.
Flavell fails on suicide
Last week, Jim Anderton said that the tidal wave of youth unemployment we’re experiencing will lead to more suicides. He’s right. The best response from the Right: slash young people’s wages and that might create a few more jobs. But Te Ururoa Flavell’s suggestion to ostracise and condemn the dead is just as bad.
US brinksmanship takes us all to the edge
The Republicans are playing chicken over the debt ceiling. The idea is to win as much as possible in spending cuts and permanently shrink the government by appearing more willing to go over the edge than the Democrats without actually going over. But does the Tea Party faction understand the game, or will they block the last minute compromise?
Growing our own Breivik
Just after Irish has discussed how little it takes to jump from the violent language of the NZ Right to the violent actions of Anders Breivik (and an ‘expert’ had said it can’t happen here), we learn of a rightwinger who planned a van-bomb attack on ACC. The striking thing is that his online rants are unremarkable within the Right’s discourse.
How empires end
The US is embroiled in the most extraordinary of crises. Unique among nations, the US has a legal debt ceiling. This artifice has allowed the Republicans to create the current ‘crisis’. For 30 years, Republicans have cut taxes and upped (defence) spending. Strategic deficits that now allow them to force a crisis by refusing the raise the debt ceiling.
Goff launches procurement policy
While Key is monkeying around in LA achieving nothing, Labour is pushing ahead with policies that will take this country forward. Last night, Phil Goff announced the party’s procurement policy at a meeting of Kiwirail Hillside workers, who have just experienced the results of government contracting that ignores wider economic impacts on the country.
Nats drop 5% in Roy Morgan, Left surges
TV1’s poll on Sunday was supposedly curtains for CGT, so what does it mean that the latest Roy Morgan has the Nats down 5% and the Left in striking range of an upset win? It means don’t draw instant conclusions linking one poll to one policy (although it must be tempting when you’ve spent $30K getting the numbers) – watch the trends.
Brownlee’s dirty little deal
I/S has revealed how Gerry Brownlee handpicked the “independent” body that is meant to monitor the use of his CERA powers. He appointed Jenny Shipley to the panel and got her $1000 a day, three times the usual pay. Brownlee said the extra was needed to get the people he wanted. But the chair says money didn’t enter into it for him.
Steven Joyce strikes out
Associate Finance Minister Steven Joyce has dealt his government’s economic credibility a serious blow by attacking Labour’s costings of its fiscal plan and getting his own numbers wrong. David Cunliffe looks to be enjoying himself as he rips Joyce apart on Red Alert, in the Herald, and in the Dom. So much for Joyce’s dreams of succeeding English as Finance Minister.
Yet more dodgy Nat numbers
If you’re a blogosphere regular, you’ll have noticed that recently every monkey with a copy of the Fountainhead and a crush on John Key has been spouting the line that the top 10% of taxpayers pay 71% of net tax. Sounds incredible, eh? That’s because it’s not credible. It’s more cheap tricks from the Nats.
The straw that broke the Randian hero’s back?
I’ve been thinking about that lawyer Casey Plunket who threatened to leave for Australia over Labour restoring the 39% top tax rate at the stratospheric threshold of $150,000. It means a couple of thousand more tax for the wealthiest Kiwis. Would anyone really move countries over that? Do we need the kind of people that would?
Were NACTs planning CGT themselves?
After two weeks of contradictory, panicked lines from National, the Right’s official critique of Labour’s CGT is “it’s a hodge-podge”. The Right, including Bill English and Don Brash, aren’t saying CGT is bad, they’re saying Labour’s CGT isn’t comprehensive enough. Why, then, don’t they campaign on a more comprehensive one? Maybe they were going to.
Reaction to Labour tax package
The media have provided us with five people examples of people who will be affected in different ways by Labour’s tax package. Ordinary families win big and they know it. The vested interests moan and reveal the pure greed that underlies their worldview. Frankly, I think Labour will win support due to both who supports and who opposes its tax policy.
CGT or asset sales? Which do you prefer?
Generally, no-one likes taxes, but Labour’s polling shows Kiwis are surprisingly receptive to capital gains tax. Head to head with National asset sales plan, the choice was clear: 55% prefer CGT vs 32% privatisation. In a contest of economic plans, Labour wins hands down. Even John Whitehead agrees. All English can do is scaremonger about the 35% debt ceiling.
Key shoots himself in foot over CGT
Capital gains is a good policy that build’s the credibility of Labour’s economic and fiscal plan. Labour’s brilliantly run pre-launch has sparked interest and discussion. The destruction of John Key’s economic credibility has been a welcome side benefit. And it is a blow, Vernon Small points out, that Key has inflicted on himself.
English to go over asset sales lie?
Labour has been chipping away at National’s case for asset sales for months. The hole in the budget has been exposed, the ‘mum and dad investors’ myth has been quashed, the efficiency argument has been broken. Now, Bill English has been caught out lying to Parliament over advice that shares would go to foreign buyers. He’ll be forced to resign.
When will Key rule out working with Brash?
ACT adman John Ansell has resigned in the fallout from the race-baiting ad he designed for ACT, which Brash proudly endorsed. The Maori Party has effectively ruled out working with ACT. Isn’t it time for John Key to do the same? He cannot avoid responsibility. ACT lives or dies at his word. If National doesn’t try to win Epsom, that is an endorsement of Brash’s racism.
Sweeping the board
The genius of Labour’s (not yet official) capital gains tax is not just the policy itself but the way it has picked the public mood. Support has been near-universal. The Left loves the fairness aspect – workers won’t be subsidising landlords anymore. The Right loves the implications for capital allocation, interest rates, and the exchange rate. The Nats look isolated and hysterical.
Key walks into Labour’s CGT trap
It has been a rare and sincere pleasure to see National walk straight into a trap carefully laid by Labour. Goff and his team haven’t even publicly confirmed their capital gains tax policy but proponents to the Left and Right are winning the pre-launch media framing for them, while Key’s contradictory ranting is undermining his credibility.
Vote for change ad competition
Vote for Change, Peter Shirtcliffe’s anti-MMP vehicle a grassroots movement discussing the need for change in the electoral system, has launched an ad competition for their movement. There’s $10,000 in prizes. I guess they raised the money from cake stalls. We encourage to submit your entries to VfC, and send them to us too!
Drunk in charge of the country?
An alert reader sent us this video of Wayne Mapp swaying, slurring and rambling his way through Question Time.
No Right Turn now has a post with some information saying that Mapp is not in the state what he appears to be in. Instead he is just being inept. We don’t know. Check it out yourself and make up your own mind.
Another right whinger
There’s an odd contradiction in right-wing ‘thought’. On the one hand, they’re Randian heroes, the wealth creators, modern day Atlases who support the world while ‘parasites’ try to take their wealth and bring them down. On the other hand, they’re victims who need subsidies and special treatment. Fed Farmers CEO Conor English embodies the contradiction.
Labour capital gains tax rumours
The buzz around the traps is that Labour will be announcing a capital gains tax next week. The journos are already calling it a bold move and John Key is ranting hysterically. That Labour’s winning the media battle is great but, more importantly, this is a much needed policy: it is fair, it is good for the economy, and it will pay for good policies.
Vote for Change stumbles at the startline
Peter Shirtcliffe’s Vote for Change is reeling. On Sunday, they had to boot out Alex Fogerty after the Young Nat’s neo-Nazi affiliations were made public. Yesterday, they lost their token Leftie, Bob Harvey, when he realised that being used by a collection of capitalist elitists and white supremacists wasn’t the legacy he wanted.
Vote for Change’s heart of darkness
Peter Shirtcliffe’s Anti-MMP Vote For Change group has just 16 members and one of them has turned out to be a neo-Nazi. Is it a case of being so short of mates they’ll accept anyone who turns up, or does this give us a truer picture of who really wants to get rid of MMP? The latter, I think.
Herald shows gap narrowing
The latest Herald poll shows Labour + Greens at 42.7%, with National + ACT at 53.1% – the gap is down to 10.4% from 16.9% in May. That confirms the trend we’re seeing in the Roy Morgans as well. Interesting to note that the gap is 17% this point before the last election. Continued progress and focus on the big issues will see victory for the Left.
Treasury: assets would end up in foreign hands
Treasury has confirmed that National’s plan to sell public assets would need foreigners to buy a lot of the shares because domestic demand would be too small for the government to make as much money as it is counting on. Forget ‘mum and dad investors’, the big buyers would be foreign sovereign wealth funds.
MMP rules, FPP/SM drools
Times that the Government had the support of the majority of voters under FPP from formation of Reform (beginning on multi-party system) in 1911: 7 out of 27 (26%)
Times that the Government has had the support of the majority of voters under MMP: 4 out of 5 (80%)
Shirtcliffe’s anti-MMP campaign launches
Peter Shirtcliffe’s latest attempt to destroy MMP has finally launched. The man who spent a million dollars in 1993 is a shadow of his former self. Now, he and his cronies are so despised he can’t front the organisation himself, he’s got some kid doing it. And FPP/SM is so despised they won’t actually campaign for it overtly.
Mana a victory for the Left
A victory for Mana or a victory for Labour? Actually, it was a win for both, and a win for the Left. The losers in Te Tai Tokerau were the true enemies of the Left – the kupapa Maori Party and National. Turia put up a weak candidate hoping to concentrate the anti-Hone vote behind Davis. Now, the Maori Party faces a three-way fight it can’t win.