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12:12 pm, December 7th, 2025 - 27 comments
Categories: chris hipkins, climate change, economy, election 2026, Environment, greens, labour, national, poverty, same old national, science, te pāti māori, winston peters -
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The prospect is tantalising. This may be the first one term National Government in my lifetime.
Usually they hang around, do some populist stuff to keep their support up, give farmers free reign and attack Unions and workers rights. This has been their modus operandii since they were formed. And backed up with some sophisticated PR work it often succeeds.
This time is different.
Christopher Luxon is not a leader. It is shown by how bad his handling of the Coalition negotiations were. The coalition agreements are full of holes and Winston Peters and David Seymour have been showing Luxon up big time ever since the agreements were signed.
Self help managerial books and natty slogans do not a leader make.
The Government has been appalling. Just think of the repeated attacks on te Tiriti, te Reo and Te Ao Māori. Or the 59 calculated changes to policy to stuff up country’s climate change response. Or the fast track regime where Government party donors have the possibility of obtaining the most extraordinary quick resource consents without the ability for the public to even have a say in what is happening. Or how so many policies seem to serve the interests of Phillip Morris shareholders rather than the interests of New Zealanders.
This is the most disastrous and disgusting Government I have ever witnessed. Worse than anything that Rob Muldoon did and worse than the first Bolger Government and Ruthenasia.
Labour is united and as determined as I have seen them. The media has tried to suggest that the party is divided and that the rather timid capital gains tax policy will cause ructions. While I and many others are concerned about the timidity of the policy (see my post Is that it?) this has not developed into dissent. While the commitment to meaningful wealth redistribution is of concern the malevolence of this current Government’s policies means that this timidity can be forgiven for now.
A centrist Labour Government compared to the current evil on display makes the alternatives clear.
And as Ad points out Labour is on something of a roll and looking pretty good. But there are four things that threaten the prospect of getting rid of this Government next year and they are things that we will have to be careful about.
They are electoral law reform, the state of Labour’s potential coalition partners, the possiblity of an economic upturn and a potential change in National’s leader.
I will deal with each of these in turn.
Electoral Law Reform
Despite opposition from 80% of submitters it appears that the Government is proceeding with its intent to get rid of election day enrollments. And you don’t have to be some sort of political genius to work out what is happening.
From previous election results where special votes strongly flowed left it is clear that increasing the ability of people to vote helps progressive parties. The more people that actually vote, the more progressive the Parliament will be.
The current bill will change this, It plans to require the rolls to be shut off two weeks before election day.
The effects are pretty stark.
In its response to an information request by the Justice Committee the Electoral Commission estimated that at the next election 40,000 fewer kiwis will have their vote count because of this change. It should be noted however that the Attorney General thought the figure could be as high as 100,000 in its opinion which clearly concluded that the proposed disenfranchisement breached the Bill of Rights. And the benefit is that the parties will know their final standing only a few days earlier than otherwise.
This is an American Republic Party overt attempt to screw the electoral scrum for political advantage. It could be worth one or two seats to the right. This is a disgraceful attempt to gain advantage. It was called out repeatedly in the submissions and the Government should be ashamed for continuing to proceed with the proposal.
To add to this the Bill also attempts to disenfranchise prisoners. Just because the Government can. It does not matter that it has been told repeatedly by the Courts that this action breaches the New Zealand Bill of Rights Act. Clearly the anticipated political advantage is more important than the fact it is yet again acting illegally.
An example of the sort of opposition that has appeared comes from this submission from the Law Association, one of the major law societies in the country. In its submission it states:
[T]wo proposals strike at the heart of New Zealand’s democratic system:– the removal of same-day enrolment and voting, replaced by a 13-day close of registration; and
– the reinstatement of a blanket ban on prisoner voting.
Both measures impose unjustifiable limits on the fundamental right to vote affirmed by s 12 of the New Zealand Bill of Rights Act 1990 (NZBORA) and protected under international law. Each risks disenfranchising significant groups of voters in ways that are arbitrary, inequitable, and corrosive of democratic legitimacy.
The Government will clearly attempt to skewer the electoral system to advantage its parties. And it will also breach fundamental human rights in the pursuit of culture war political benefit. The left will need to be very conversant of this, activists will need to engage in mass enrollments early on and the turnout strategy will be vital.
The legislation is not passed. But it is clear that the Government will push it through.
The state of Labour’s potential coalition partners
Te Pāti Māori are clearly in a bad state. Wver since the magnificence of the justified outrage it displayed during the debate of the introduction of the Treaty Principles Bill It has had a terrible term. For the former take a bow Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke.
Since then things have become worse and worse. The death of Moana Natasha Kemp and the subsequent implosion of the party has left it reeling.
Mariameno Kapa-Kingi has really raised the ante by obtaining an interim reinstatement order from the High Court. The next caucus meeting and today’s AGM should be very interesting.
The decision notes significant factual and procedural issues with Ms Kapa-Kingi’s expulsion. The main hearing scheduled next year will explore these further.
But the party is going to need a lot of repairing. And its viability as a party and its prospects for success next year are in doubt.
There is currently an overhang because of Te Pati Māori’s success in winning electoral seats last election. It is hard to see how this overhang can remain.
As for the Green Party they are still polling well and various events have not dented their support.
At this stage they will certainly be viable coalition partners. The question will be their relationship with NZ First and if this is a potential coalition breaker as it appears the presence of Te Pati Māori will be.
And in terms of potential coalition partners NZ First is busily distancing itself from the Government and it may be that they are preparing to switch allegiance. Of course Peters has previously ruled out supporting Hipkins for PM but such statements are not necessarily a final determination of the issue.
The possiblity of an economic upturn
Sure things are pretty bad right now. Unemployment has surged and National’s attacks on beneficiaries have caused a great deal of stress and dissent. They are not going to win the beneficiary vote.
But as James Carville noted its the economy stupid.
If the economy improves then National’s chances will also improve.
But it will have to talk to the Taxpayer’s Union. They are apparently in the process of declaring open war on Willis and will apparently mount a campaign calling for her to be dumped. They want Willis to increase the misery and the downturn by slashing spending.
As pointed out by occasional Standard reader Matthew Hooton Willis is now taxing, spending and borrowing more than Grant Robertson ever did. She has inflicted a great deal of pain on many and the only beneficiaries so far are landlords, tobacco companies, those who want to wreck the environment and those with multiple houses who want to sell them and not pay tax.
This table summaries things elegantly and brutally.
Stand by as the right turns on itself.
A potential change in National’s leader
I don’t think this is an option unless National’s polling drops below 30% and quickly. Time is running and a new leader will need time to bed themselves in and introduce themselves to the country.
It is clear however that there is nervousness among National’s ranks. Chris Bishop’s name being floated recently was no accident. But Luxon is safe for now because it appears that National’s factions are unable to stomach the thought of two relatively progressive leaders.
Sure a change in leadership worked for Labour and Jacinda Ardern. But National does not have an Ardern in its ranks. And there is no way it can campaign on hope or change or let’s do this.
Conclusion
To conclude, next year presents a tantalising opportunity to change government. But there are lots of issues. A well resourced right, a government rigging the electoral system in its favour, some messiness among potential support parties, a possible economic improvement and a National Party leadership change could all frustrate this.
If you want to see a change in Government get involved. Make sure your whanau are all enrolled and vote. Keep up the loud passionate opposition to this Government’s excesses. And donate time and or money to your favourite progressive party.
This could be a milestone election, one to celebrate. But we will have to work on it.
Hate to state the obvious but the media will strongly influence the election next year…….disinformation….misinformation…..outright lies on Labour policies, during Covid, presently and into the future……..
James Carville may have noted "its the economy stupid"…..but I would argue "its the media and who controls the narrative"……..
I think that only holds true if the "media" is the only source of information voters consume. And I'm not sure in a post-COVID, post Trump, post-truth world if that's the case anymore. Even right-wing traditional outlets are struggling to remain financially viable.
We just have to accept that the information is entire orders of magnitude more fragmented than before. And that the way to combat it is to stay ruthlessly on message and keep having those dinner-table or family BBQ conversations.
My point was if it is all about the economy…….. (Labour left a growing economy 2.4%, low unemployment at 3.2% lowest in a generation, millions invested in housing for low income people building a huge housing stock, and by all accounts one of the lowest death rate in the world from the pandemic) then they should have romped in. ……but no the narrative was amplified that Maori were stealing the water…..Maori were going to take control through co-governance……crime was at an all time high……….youth and gangs were out of control…….farmers were being marginalised and going to the dogs………
National were going to get the country back on track….the media ran that theme all the way to the election…….take a look at the amount of donations to National and Act in 2023…….the narrative was bought and paid for………I hope I am mistaken but I fear the same is going to happen in 2026………
Yep spot on indeed, it seems almost impossible to me that after all this govt has done to harm NZ and its people, the polls have it pretty much 50/50. Unfortunately money talks, young people don't appear to be voting and the media no longer have any hard questions.
Agreed Kat. My comment was that if the economy lifts significantly then National have a chance. If the media decide to claim that the economy has lifted when it has not National also has a chance.
I think your overarching thesis is very sound. The fundamentals look good for Labour, but we're still 12 months out from an election and things can change rapidly.
"But Luxon is safe for now because it appears that National’s factions are unable to stomach the thought of two relatively progressive leaders."
I may have misunderstood but I wouldn't class Luxon as progressive
I am talking about Bishop/Standford or Bishop/Willis. I agree that Luxon is not a progressive …
In my opinion, Bishop and Stanford have shown that they are not progressive at all.
Agreed, nor Willis, but perhaps they can be marketed as comparatively progressive?
Relax, guy.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2025/jul/24/south-park-most-furious-episode-ever-the-jaw-dropping-satanic-takedown-of-donald-trump
I think Micky is referring to Bishop and Stanford as alternatives to Luxon and No Boats (now No Plan).
Yep Willis is toast as far as I can tell.
Where, oh where is New Zealand's Mamdani when we need him/her?
I don’t think one can exist here. Or at least not as a straight transplant.
Political breakthroughs are always products of their context. Mamdani’s win wasn’t a plug-and-play recipe; it was a particular alignment of things that don’t replicate themselves neatly.
The right candidate, with the right pitch, landing in a city with a very specific coalition structure, at a moment when the “establishment lane” was wide open because Adams and Cuomo were catastrophically unpopular, and at a point in the cycle where voters were ready to burn the old furniture.
You can learn from the shape of it: Clarity of values, coalition discipline, turning a moral story into a material programme. But you can’t just photocopy it into New Zealand and expect it to work. The terrain’s different, the institutions are different, the electorates are different, and the openings appear in different ways.
So the real question isn’t “who is our Mamdani?”
It’s “what’s our context, and what kind of candidate and story fits that opening when it arrives?”
A centrist Labour Government compared to the current evil on display makes the alternatives clear.
I agree that Labour's centrism is a better option than govt idiocy, but keep in mind some commentators here still believe Labour is leftist (!) so you may have inadvertently traumatised them. Let's hope they can get up to speed on the shift. Long-time leftist journo Gordon Campbell seems unimpressed however.
Is chronic evasion really bad political strategy, or just a bad look? Dunno. I'm tempted to take it as audacious and evidence of cunning, as if clever buggers are involved. As if the political culture of competitive underwhelming that both major parties have normalised in recent years is no longer a consensus, and Labour has decided to bewilder the Nats by going high instead. Ok then, fair enough I guess…
At this stage I’m sure they’ve got heaps of internal polling and focus-group work telling them what’s landing, where the soft vote is moving, and which issues are genuinely volatile. That’s what modern oppositions do. Especially when they’re rebuilding and trying not to hand the government easy targets.
Campbell’s right that it’s a “small target” approach, and that it’s frustrating in democratic terms. It's certainly not a strategy I'd choose if I was running Labour's electoral campaign.
But the bigger question for me isn’t whether they’re reading the electorate. I assume they are.
It’s whether we trust Labour to manage the process well and turn that data into a coherent story and a credible programme, rather than another round of last-minute triangulation. Because “we’re not announcing policy on RNZ yet” can be either:
And right now, from the outside, it’s hard to tell which one we’re looking at.
Green shoots anyone? 2024? 2025? 2026?
More like eats shoots and leaves.
Tuffley at ASB is optimistic in this mornings' forecast.
But business investment intention is still woeful.
We've had a full year of successive interest rate cuts, with property values stagnant and retail not lifting and consumer confidence cratered.
And 200 people a day flying out. And crippled state investment which is 25% approx of our economy.
Everyone is miserable.
Hold your nerve Mickey. We can do this.
I saw a comment recently about ‘green shoots’.
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/136024/number-advertised-mortgagee-sales-has-been-rising-steadily-april
Recovery will be slow, when it comes, and the pain will last a long time for many. Don’t be fooled by aggregate numbers.
Public opinion will anchor in personal circumstance but those guided by global context trends ought to factor this in:
Sorted folk may ride the gold escalator rather than stocks & shares, huh? So I asked Google "where is stagflation happening now?" Their gizmo informed me thus:
Luxon and Willis can therefore take the credit for making us world leader in the way of the future. The neolib recipe is producing apparent growth in one part of the economy though: homelessness, so you can see why Labour clings onto it.
Feels like the usual pre-election National pivot warming up: “trust us, the green shoots are here.”
Sure, economists are starting to talk that way after the OCR cuts, but if people can’t see it in their pay packets or grocery bills, it won’t stick.
And National’s in a bind trying to ride ACT’s agenda while pretending they’re above it. It's going to be hard to sell “competent managers” when you’re also the vehicle for someone else’s risk.
There’s no question the current Government has made decisions that many of us hate, particularly around te Tiriti, climate policy, democratic rights, and the fast-track regime. The sooner they piss off or a booted out the better.
But as to your point there are a couple of things I don't quite agree with. The attacks on te Tiriti and Māori rights more broadly weren’t sudden departures from their values. They were a core part of the opposition strategy last term and something they openly campaigned on and were voted in to do. For many of their supporters, these positions were an attraction rather than a deterrent, so I’m not convinced their actions on Maori matters will shift votes.
On the economic front, I struggle to understand the kind of political tribalism where bad economic news is treated as “good” because it damages the Government. That mindset helps no one. An improving economy is good for workers, families, and communities, and wanting people to struggle just to make an election easier is crazy.
I think it will be a very close election with the issues almost mirroring the last election. I hope that we can present a positive vision for New Zealand that doesn't rely on pulling people down, like the current government does.
For me, it's about drawing attention to the self-serving NAct1 Coalition of Charlatans' continuing efforts to con Kiwis that their much-touted fabulous economic chops are about to extract NZ Aotearoa from a prolonged recession. "Are we there yet?"
https://x.com/rodemmerson/status/1882539434211696873
https://thekaka.substack.com/i/159681666/cartoons
https://x.com/rodemmerson/status/1969112598554526141
https://www.thepress.co.nz/nz-news/360829700/cartoon-september-20
https://www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/360833905/cartoon-september-25
https://chrisslane.substack.com/p/waiting-for-the-upswing
No we aren't there yet, and probably won't be in 12 months.
But if we are, that's a good thing because it means more people will have jobs and hopefully be paid more.
The government should fall for a number of reasons. But I don't want people to stay unemployed and stuck in poverty for another 12 months just because it will improve our electoral chances.
Yes, those would be good things, and hopefully for many Kiwis.
It's as much about disciplined messaging that's simple, is sung by all and cuts through that counters their repeated lies.
No easy task. Just heard Carl Bates with the 'we're cleaning up their debt mess' and 'most first home buyers ever' lines on BFM.
While Labour might not be this awful coalition, I no longer consider it to be "centre left" – more like "centre right" tbh – that's the way they went after 2020. God only knows why given the majority they had.
There is one thing that will affect everything we do: from transport to cost of living, insurance, health… everything, and that's climate. I've not heard Chippy say a single thing about it. Indeed, he started the climate policy bonfire almost the minute he became PM. He mentioned neither the climate nor Te Tiriti in his conference speech.
Also, look at the fast-track. Despite much handwringing about the FTAA, Labour still won't say what they'd do with it, except maybe go back to their (terrible) post Covid fast track process, and maybe undo the current Fast Track Amendment Bill. Maybe.
I hope TPM sorts out its issues and gets itself back on track. Otherwise we might be left with Winston and Shane continuing to run the show.
But I certainly don't trust Labour and especially not Chippy.