Written By:
- Date published:
12:50 pm, February 4th, 2026 - 8 comments
Categories: budget 2025, Christopher Luxon, Economy, employment, national, national/act government, unemployment -
Tags: Construction, inflation
This is a repost from the Mountain Tui Substack
Economists and the RBNZ had forecast an unemployment rate of 5.3% in the December quarter, but more people returning to the workforce meant it came in higher – “highest level in a decade”.
Edward Miller reports:
It’s grim and as Miller points out, these impacts are generational.
But the truth is even more grim – the unemployment rate is made significantly higher because it masks the 140,000 + Kiwi citizens we’ve lost in the last two years.
In 2023, ACT created this ad, saying that if Kiwis voted for them, they would turn things around:
But with a record 70,000 Kiwis moving per year since they formed government, with a majority of working age and never returning again, it’s easy to understand why ACT deleted their ad.
Last year when I reported on business liquidations, it was sitting at the highest in 10 years.
This week saw business liquidations recorded at the highest level for 15 years. i.e. the trajectory and pace of regression is significant here.
The businesses that have closed in the last two years, include, but are not limited to:
The Body Shop (April 2025), EB Games (scheduled closure early 2026), Miniso and Yoyoso (liquidated 2026), Smith & Caughey’s, Huckleberry (2024), DFS (Auckland, 2025), SPQR, Homeland (Auckland), Sealords factory (Nelson), Eves Valley Sawmill (Nelson), Proper Crisps (reduction), Kitchen Things (2025), Smith City, Fortune Favours (Wellington) and on it went.
We’ve lost significant factories along significant job losses. These include, but aren’t limited to:
And not to mention the 18,000 construction jobs gone which construction bosses put squarely at National and Chris Bishop’s feet.
And on it all goes.
Meanwhile, National can do nothing more than fearmonger and present misleading “advertisements”.
One comment noted:
It was at about 4.7% inflation when National won the election in 2023. So its fair to say inflation was already decreasing before they took over. In the past 12 months its increased again by 0.9% from 2.2 to 3.1. If this current trend continues we will see interest rates rising again to compensate.
And it is true.
The trendline was always forecast to come down in this manner, post Covid, but National are too eager to take credit for economic outcomes completely unrelated to their actions, but also refuse to acknowledge and take action in areas they directly contributed to.
Back on track, the National Party told us.
And too many of us caved into conservative populism.
MT. Thanks again for setting it all out. Its a skill ! And as I have said previously, under NACT1 we have version 2.0 of the Bolger descent society.
Turning that around..will indeed take a mighty effort. But I feel more and more that Labour and Green…are the team for the task.
I noticed also that female employment had increased, but largely in part time work.
I am wondering if that includes a lot of women with caring responsibilities aiming to improve the income of their household, while other adults in the house have been laid off or had their employment hours decreased?
Thanks Tui. The CoC lie lie lie, and a complicit media echo echo echo.
Money talks, so we will need feet on the ground, as they are our riches.
Communicating clearly the differences and results.
Jesus, Jason Walls pollyanna pro-National bullshit on the 6pm news! It was an almost comical bit of gaslighting, and grimly unprofessional.
If I was a newly appointed broadcasting minister my first call would be to the head of TVNZ telling them Walls could go or both of them will go.
Jason Walls is an actual propagandist- his real home in his heart is Newstalk ZB and every segment it shows.
TVNZ's been a joke for decades now, campbell aside. John better get to moderate those debates not this ex granny jonolister.
Brilliant as ever Tui.
Just to add, the outbreak of the Ukraine war also added to supply chain problems and inflation. These inflation effects have gradually reduced as countries have found ways to mitigate these issues.
Nothing to do with actions taken by the COC of course.
I think all political parties miss the obviouse. AI and a lack of highly skilled workers will increase unemployment at pace. Add to this that to get a job you still have more chances to land one not by what you know but by who you know. Low paid entry jobs will no longer be available. The lack of skilled workers will accelerate implementation of AI for tasks that are repetitive, numerical and predictable. Japan has had a car manufacturing plant already 20 years ago where they just needed 3 staff to operate with the result of a profitability that was unmatched. This is a world wide phenomena. NZ has their head in the sand and it is a shame that politicians just fall back into their same old same old. UI needs to be discussed to stem increased poverty. The failure to tax IT companies is pathetic. Tarifs from the US will only last a few years, the issue we face is transformative.