Open mike is your post.
For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.
The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).
Step up to the mike …
Open mike 14/02/2025
49 comments on “Open mike 14/02/2025”
Comment numbers have changed to permanent references. Older quoted numbers may no longer identify the same comment.
Comments are closed.
I do so like a little bit of satire first thing in the morning – it sort of sets my cynical day up nicely.
https://emilywrites.substack.com/p/leaked-coalition-government-emails?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=pr9pu&triedRedirect=true
NAct1 and supporter/cronies ethos is looking after themselves and short term gain….so, unsurprising that there is
I have to say, my opinion of Simon Upton (ex Nat) has gone upward for quite a while.IMO he does seem to have genuine regard for our Environment.
However, sadly, I dont think his appeal to Logic will strike any kind of chord with the drill baby drill fasttrack mindset
And considering NAct1's intensive slash/burn of Science and Research ? I dont hold too much hope for this happening..
Agree psych. Upton appears to be one Nat who looks at the climate change facts and says what he thinks based on that info. All power to him.
I read the single quote you give and the first thing that comes to mind is that he is talking about the fantasy that Mātauranga Māori is science and has any relevance to the problems of climate change.
It isn't science. It is magic and it doesn't have any relevance to what we need to work on.
Which one is the single quote, because none of them mentions "Mātauranga Māori"?
'Magic' has deflected alwyn – from Upton’s analysis, to ‘Māori’ – what a mind
Simon Upton, in an excellent piece from the NZ Review of Books (undated) on being a NZer and his sense of NZ identity:
"You would need to ask me whether I was a New Zealander of Maori or European (or mixed) descent to get some useful insight into how I identified with the world around me. If my answer were Maori, then my sense of nationhood (in a human sense) would be steeped in 800 years familiarity with these lands, their flora, fauna and seasonal variability. It would also be anchored in a sense of community and culture that has evolved in the Pacific over a much longer time….insisting on a new pakeha identity simply inverts the assimilationist agenda with which colonial New Zealand sought to co-opt Maori. If biculturalism is to be anything workable it must be a celebration of two cultural strands that will, however they may over the generations be woven together, retain their own resilience and integrity."
Upton set up the CRI system out of the DSIR, and for the most part, it worked very well for NZ's research needs. That included input from local iwi.
As pointed out, Alwyn’s ‘insight’ reflects the manufactured frets in Alwyn’s mind.
That's right Alwyn.
Science maintained that the sun orbited the earth and disease was caused by miasma.
And yet the 'magic' you refer to enabled sea-faring well before the 'scientific' followers had worked things out.
alwyn. I was going to say you must need unbelievable, near magical, arm strength for your longbow ?
But really…your comment is just bizarre, and/or sad.
They were forecasting 2 rate cuts by the Fed in the USA this year. Now only one and not to October.
But it seems tariffs is merely part of Trump's isolationist agenda (to place the USA in relationship to other nations only via inter-state power imbalance).
Inflation will rise there because of the tariffs and the "Oct rate cut" will not go ahead (or if it does will be reversed in 2026).
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/360580937/fight-against-inflation-us-appears-have-stalled
This is a very interesting read. Are Trump's tariffs part of a very cunning plan?
https://unherd.com/2025/02/why-trumps-tariffs-are-a-masterplan/
[link fixed – Incognito]
Odd – I'm getting a 404 on that link.
I’ve entered the correct link; see if that works for you.
Apologies.
All good. Turned out to be an interesting link. Not convinced that it's a plan Trump conceived, but it sounds reasonable enough if you're on America's side. Tough luck for everyone else but.
Hooton has an interesting piece in the Herald (paywalled)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/labour-eyes-swift-return-to-government-matthew-hooton/TJ7YA3J5IRBOTOQFC2W7Y3IVGA/
This is Hooton so there is always a question as to motive, but its certainly something that I have been thinking about as well.
The media is talking about a left v right split along the lines of the current government v opposition. But there is a real prospect of a government that reflects that elected in 2017.
I think Hipkins would go the NZF route as he has worked with them before.
can be read here.
https://archive.li/ILigk
You seem to have swallowed hook, line & sinker, the spin from Orwellian Grand-Master Hooton. Has it ever occurred to you that TPM is counter-reacting to the Coalition’s reactionism or is that irony lost on you?
If TPM has any wise heads they’d build bridges with Labour and the Greens and publically make more conciliatory noises and gestures and don’t expect Labour and the Greens to make the first step – it’s all about building and nurturing those relationships in the spirit and meaning of the Treaty and openly practicing prefigurative politics.
Better for New Zealand if Hipkins ran on a strong economic development platform for workers and regions, and wiped out New Zealand First altogether.
That is a reasonable ambition for Labour to actually have in 2026.
The flaw in Hooton's musings is that historically NZF has only switched sides after a bust-up with the Nat/Lab governing party and a spell in opposition, or even out of Parliament completely.
1999 – below 5%, holds an electorate (Tauranga), then 6 years in opposition.
2008 – below 5%, no electorate, out of Parliament, total 9 years in opposition.
2020 – below 5%, no electorate, out of Parliament, 3 years in opposition.
2026? Either staying above 5% (or getting an "Epsom deal" with National to survive) or falling below 5% yet again – for the fourth time. Therefore, irrelevant to any potential Labour-led government.
Being a Nat support party before the election and a Lab support party the day after it … fantasy.
Having him descend to working with the Fisherman's Friend would be too big a rat for this writer to swallow (but I party-vote Green anyway).
The way the polls are going NZF could be out on 4.9 whereas TPM are a safe bet to be back.
Hipkins (asuming he is still leader which I hope he isn't) needs to say nothing except that he will negotiate after the result.
Compass has called in Pies and Pita Pit to provide meals to schools.
Presumably because if it continued to fail to provide a service, it would be in breach of contract.
Regardless, it is now obvious Seymour's alternative programme is not viable.
The government has to step in and return to the old regime.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/health/compass-calls-pita-pit-pie-shop-to-the-rescue
"The government has to step in and return to the old regime "
Would you care for a small wager on that?
If not now, then in 2026 .. this incompetence is on the scale of their ferry disaster.
What the likely hood that by next year compass has renegotiated a price similar to what the former food suppliers where charging, !! That how big business operates , low ball offer to fuck competitors then bend thick arsholes like seymour over a barrel and do what they want to him .
One hopes Peters uses this to get the ferries he wants.
Chinese industry MO as well.
Friday pie day might actually be a genius solution to low Friday attendance rates. Pie one week, coke &chips the nek week. It'd work..believe me..kids would be froffin. Yours- a teacher
BHN Pat and Magenta discuss media around the Treaty Principles Bill submissions and comment.
Sir Geoffrey Palmer says that the whole process over this bill is backward to Parliamentary process.
Another catastrophic day for heavy manufacturing in New Zealand with 230 jobs gone in South Waikato, and about 60 subbies gone as well.
I don't expect any government to alter the course of entire global markets, but Jones and Willis have had plenty of time to work with Oji, the local mayor, local business, and civil society to generate some kind of recovery plan.
Shame on them.
These newly unemployed will be straight off to heavy manufacturing plants in Australia soon as they can.
Another Japanese owned plant closed down recently in Gisborne but later an Australian company moved in and re-opened it.
The union should make a case to Oz companies in this sector – supply to the Oz market and beyond.
https://union.org.nz/oji-needs-to-work-with-government-and-unions-before-closure/
The Gisborne plant was timber supply.
https://www.eastcoastmulching.com.au/how-to-stop-deforestation-australia/
https://www.kwm.com/au/en/insights/latest-thinking/the-european-deforestation-regulation-set-to-impact-Australian-exports-now-expected-to-be-deferred.html
This is paper supply. It might depend on Oz "trade policy", or retail policy, as to lower cost paper imports derived from rainforest land use etc.
More detail here.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2025/02/14/230-jobs-to-go-at-kinleith-mill-as-end-of-paper-production-confirmed/
Another vote of confidence in National's glam rock economy.
More bollocks from Jones that the closure was due to power costs.
The company is on record as saying power is 15% of costs, and I reckon this sounds exaggerated. They just want to use cheap Asian labour like Tesla, Dyson etc etc ad infinitum.
The standard assessment as to RB policy during the COVID period.
And identifying the problem as to the way forward: there might be limited growth without inflationary pressures returning.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/541807/group-think-these-were-our-covid-19-mistakes-economists-say
Expectations of inflation are tempered and low.
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/131841/influential-rbnz-survey-has-shown-drops-expectations-future-levels-inflation-move
The Coalition will keep minimum wage and social benefits as low as possible and they will continue to run their austerity madness package through the public sector, which will have many inevitable secondary consequences.
The Coalition’s ‘stimulus package’ for growing the economy and improving productivity (per capita) is too one-sided and too one-eyed, only looking at one side of the coin, which is private overseas investment.
Other token efforts and lazy measures such as golden Visas have been thoroughly debunked, e.g., by Gordon Campbell and others: https://werewolf.co.nz/2025/02/gordon-campbell-on-why-golden-visas-are-a-losing-bet-on-growth/.
The only conclusion that one can reach is that the Coalition is not interested in growth per se but only in distributing wealth upwards and consolidating economic and growing political power with the elite ruling class of ‘wealthy and sorted’ few people. Suffice to say, this will be counter-inflationary.
There is a dichotomy.
Rents, rates (water infrastructure and building dams and flood protection) and home insurance (rising flood risk adding to earlier re-setting after Christchurch and Kaikoura earthquakes) and power prices (on the current model at least) will continue to go up.
The consequence of supply chain disruption (tariffs) will lead to higher import prices.
We have local unmet infrastructure demands (lack of social housing and in aged care that is to become critical – requiring more staff also). And are wasting money on roads. This has consequences.
Of course, there are and always will be upward price pressure. But this can be off-set by keeping labour costs under tight control. Other measures are more relaxed immigration with loosening of rules and dropping qualification requirements, for example.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/541645/removing-teacher-requirements-could-be-devastating-teaching-council-says
Increased automation will be another nail in the working-class coffin.
https://newsroom.co.nz/2025/02/14/why-restaurants-are-doubling-down-on-self-service-kiosks/ [still behind subscription wall]
Any increase in money flow (revenue) will mostly bypass most people and be re-directed into the hands of a few; this is not increasing productivity but continues feeding the rentier economy (aka FIRE).
Corporate taxes might go down, tax exemptions for landlords are being reinstated, the bright line ‘test’ has become a joke among house flippers, the rules and tax regime for Foreign Investment Funds and Foreign Direct Investment will be loosened, et cetera.
Follow the money – cui bono?
Surprisingly Sco Mo said something pertinent about this.
Try to avoid being noticed by the bozo.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/541892/nz-depends-on-rules-based-world-trump-is-dismantling-why-the-silence
It helps being able to appear friendly (if a right winger).
Argue a case, when required to.
Otherwise
Focus on maintaining organisations the USA is not part of (TPP/ASEAN/RCEP)(South Pacific Forum) and FTA such as with UK and EU.
And helping organisations the US is part of to cope – WTO/UN.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/nz-and-world-about-to-discover-how-much-protectionism-sucks-economist-says
Obama and Trump crippled the litigation arm of the WTO by refusing appointments to the WTO Appellate body. They effectively halted all cases since 2019. The US wanted to defang Appellate Body powers by only allowing a case to move to judgment if both parties agree.
The world should move to the original plan, an ITO, and exclude the USA from any power in or over the organisation.
Back when the Director-General of Health was Ashley Bloomfield and the PM was competent, a common response from the Right to the life-saving competence was … "oh, it's not that hard, it would have happened anyway if our lot had been in power". The D-G and all the essential decision-makers would have worked happily and successfully with Prime Minister X of the National-led government, to safeguard the people's health.
Since that was purely hypothetical, it could not be proved wrong.
It is now.
What a wanker! The minister for the South Island claimed credit for the Cof C for the Waimea Dam, on the Breakfast programme this morning. In fact there has not been 1 cent paid by Central Govt for it.
He has to do something to justify his invented and spurious ministerial post.
Mexico's President says the US needs to fight fentamyl in the US as well, says The Guardian.
'Sheinbaum called on Washington not just to help crack down on cartels in Mexico, but for the “United States to do its job in the US, to make the arrests that need to be made in order to halt the trafficking of drugs in its own country”.
You know it is ‘fentanyl’, yes? You consistently get this wrong.