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- Date published:
1:03 pm, October 8th, 2025 - 41 comments
Categories: Christopher Luxon, election 2026, national, nz first, polls -
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Spare a thought for National’s MPs.
The latest Curia Poll results suggest that a quarter of them could face the loss of their seats.
Not only that but depending on electorate results Nicola Willis and Chris Bishop could be out of Parliament.
And the party has smashed through the psychological 30% barrier and is now polling at 29.6%.
Ouch.
And it has lost 3.5% points since the last poll and this has all gone to New Zealand First.
Ouch.
And the left block is on track to having a majority in the next Parliament.
To add to Luxon’s bad news he has been overtaken by Chris Hipkins as preferred Prime Minister. Hipkins gained 3.2 points to reach 20.9%, while Luxon dropped 1.9 points to 19.8%.
I suspect there are many hurried conversations happening in Parliament right now.
And Luxon’s tenure as National leader and Prime Minister must be under threat.
Tick tock tick tock …
Who will put out the next Poll? Trends are interesting indeed.
And here's the Wiki rolling average of all NZ polls including the Curia poll.
The trends are looking good.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election
Labour has been ahead of the Nats in 6 of the last 7 polls.
The Left is fortunate to have 2 minor parties with very distinct identities-Green and Maori.
They might lose more votes to NZ First.
Over this.
Even the Taxpayers Union thinks the legislation should be opposed.
Customers of the foreign based banks have a legal right and our New Zealand law firms deserve to be able to cut their teeth on a foreign owned corporate (even if
ACTAtlas Network wants to protect them).This is a government that refuses to place any windfall profits tax on these banks, who make more money here than in the Oz market (aka give their customers here a lesser service).
The practice of hiring former National politicians onto the boards of these banks raises concerns about propriety – being lobbied by former Ministers of the Crown etc.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/360847569/did-nz-first-opposition-retrospective-law-change-prompt-asb-settle-class-action-1356m
The first big bite is the sweetest.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/360846827/lawyer-makes-history-nzs-largest-settlement-involving-bank
The government may want to fast track everything to suit those with capital/corporate interest but … there is a reason why we still have courts.
PS The government buckled to bank demands to change Orr’s capital requirements, they think a move to lower interest cost now at longer term system risk is worth it (in their eyes in the here and now as a struggling government).
Following on from the success of Australian banks over capital requirements comes resistance to there being fair trading rules in New Zealand
He means having the international norm is more than they are use to, or want.
It seems they want lack of accountability to continue.
It seems they are saying they cannot operate here the way their peers overseas do.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360845865/consumer-nz-urges-government-not-back-down-fair-trading-reforms
Our worst bank is the one with the most confidence in the government – why would this be?
https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/360846571/anz-vows-fight-after-asb-settles-class-action-lawsuit-1356-million
Notice how Key left before this hit the fan. He has a track record for missing fallout!! Hence his nickname Teflon John.
They all do it's typical board behaviour imo, he just happened to be in the chair at the time.
They all have a shelf life and purpose with ex PM JK getting 7 sinecured years ka ching !
Damn, damn, damn…
I was hoping the Nats would keep him on as their Leader. He is the best secret weapon the Left could hope for.
The worst case scenario is that after dumping Landlord Luxon and Noboats Willis, that the Nats replace those two inept muppets with more credible-appearing leadership. Not good.
Can we organise everyone/anyone being polled to choose 'National' instead of a Left Party? (By Thor, I'm such a cynic…)
please fix the typo in your next comment to stop being caught in the new commenter filter. thanks.
I am surprised Luxon has lasted this long. He has been walked all over by Winston and Seymour. It will be a fascinating election next year. Regardless of the winner it seems we will continue to have either a weakened Labour or weakened National relying on questionable coalition partners. I can personally see a world where we start flip flopping governments every three years for a period of time.
Mr 29%, most unpopular first term govt in nz history?
Cluxon says NZers elected him to get NZ back on track. 2+ years and he and no growth nicola have failed
The government is 46%, not 29%.
This result from this poll is encouraging, but the bigger picture is still a concern. It’s essentially a dead heat between the right and left blocs. Given the current economic environment, you’d normally expect the opposition to be pulling well ahead.
The fact that they aren’t is a real concern. If voters aren’t swinging decisively away from the government during tough economic times, that suggests a deeper hesitation about the alternative.
The economic picture is likely to improve from here: lower interest rates farmers are set for record income, and there’s a $400k “sugar hit” per farmer due next year from the Fonterra Brands sale. That tailwind should favour an incumbent government.
If this is the baseline now, it may only get harder from here for the opposition.
His party, being the biggest in the govt, at 29%. I meant that rather than his govt over all. Yes aotearoa nz first has picked up support by chasing the tin foil hat vote alongside the grumpy old moaning woke vote and the blowhard liking voters
Yes, but…
This is a poll taken when labour hasn't released it's/any policies.
In other words, anything is better than what we have.
Subject to them being sensible policies, the real gains will be after those policies are announced.
If Luxon and Willis and now Bishop are reaching for their brown trousers, now is the time to do it. We don't want someone else being in their honeymoon period come the election.
I'm repeating what I said before. Given that the Nats must know that a change of leader won't turn things around quick enough (recall Lange/Palmer), if I was the nats I would see the dysfunction in TPM, understand that people are dissing this government primarily through lack of faith (which is quick to lose and slow to claw back), wait until April-ish and surprise the left with a snap election.
Please, please be ready in case.
That is the advantage of the low-profile policy stance that Labour has been doing (and National did mid-term in 2022). It leaves the current government exposed in all their glory while not being able to do the “but – look at that…” to Labour policies. Instead they’re trying to do it to the Greens and TPM. Which is probably having some effect but not on the overall possible coalitions. It just shuffles the pack between existing potential coalitions.
There are downsides, but nowhere near as much as the upsides when the the government is such an obvious CoCk-up. Labour isn’t even having to manufacture a narrative
Little -> Ardern
And snap elections aren’t exactly a panacea this side of the Tasman. Voters really don’t like going to the polls without an obvious and real breakdown in the Government coalition. The only successful one was probably 2002 after New Labour and the Alliance fell apart. But then the possible coalitions on the right were also in evident disarray.
Ones tat are held in the middle of winter are especially unloved by voters. Some of the comments and the lack of turnout in 2002 were acerbic towards canvassers. I remember getting the sharp edge of left voters on freezing cold and very wet doorsteps.
April-ish, just before Budget Day? Why?
Oh, not connecting it to anything. Just that now would be too early; you'd want to try another PM and give that time to work or not. Esp to see if Christmas holiday trading kickstarted the economy. But then, June or July they would risk the left being prepared for the proper election. So I picked the 2nd quarter of 2026.
A year is a long time in politics.
The Nats have clearly ordered the Reserve Bank to cut by 0.5% today, and I heard about half an hour ago a commentator on RadioNZ's Checkpoint saying that the rate will continue to be cut this year-not just one cut.
These are rapid and large cuts. In just 15 months the rate has been cut from 5.5 to 2.5 with more to come. Clearly Orr had to be shunted out so that Cluxon and No Boats could get these dramatic cuts to put a sheen on the economy for next year's election.
But it’s good for our exporters such as farming-dairy industry, i.e., BAU.
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/135592/review-things-you-need-know-you-sign-wednesday-jumbo-ocr-cut-has-banks-reassessing
Cockies and tourism will get a boost, tourism doubly because overseas holidays just got a lot more expensive and New Zealanders will recreate at home. Everyone else will be hurting as everything just go more expensive. Importers, and buyers of imported goods will not be happy.
Someone said to me once that the sweet spot for exchange rates was around US$ 0.70, and AU$ 0.85, anything above or below and strange / bad things start happening.
It was shortlived.
Yes, great news isn't it. My fixed mortgage comes off shortly and when I re-fix I'll be paying over $300 less a month.
Free advice for you: you’re better off to keep the payments the same.
This one's actually an interest only mortgage, but yes if it was P & I it would be a good thing to do.
Not great news for those without mortgages who need the income from term deposits to boost their Super income. This cut gives with one hand and takes away with the other.
Will mortgage holders spend the money or hold on to it when they refinance I wonder?
As I will have an extra $300 funds, yes I am more likely to feel richer and spend in the economy.
By your logic (spending the extra $300 into the economy), it makes the generous tax cuts, to the landlords and other sorted folk, look rather inept.
Far better for Willis to have focussed on extra money to the bottom half of the economy rather than the top.
We bought shares in gentailers. Low risk, good returns.
Id prefer a return to nationalized utilities, but it's unlikely.
Don't think there was any indication of Orr clashing with Willis over the unemployment rate or monetary policy, it seems to have been much more personal than that. Of course, it's possible that leaving Labour's unemployment rate considerations in the RBNZ goals would have seen the RBNZ lowering the OCR sooner (closer to when Willis's spending cuts spiked it). I simply didn't see Willis give any indications she knows what she is doing or can set and chase consistent economic goals at any point yet.
https://newsroom.co.nz/2025/10/07/orr-what-ex-reserve-bank-governors-tenuous-restraint-of-trade-payout/
The theory is that dropping the ocr will give people more money in their pockets, which they will then go out and spend.
The reality is people are too scared to spend it. To be fair, some of that is Trump/Middle East/Ukraine, but I put the bulk of the fear on the current government, the ineptitude and the disarray. Luxon is generally absent when things aren't right, and it gives the impression that the country is being run by two parties that polled less than 10% each. If you're lucky to have a job (mine disappeared) you never know how long it will last.
Not to mention the 'born to rule' air of superiority that really p!$$es people off. where else do cabinet ministers make the 'Loser' sign to workers when attending corporate visits!
And, people remember Luxon dissing Hipkins for pointing to global challenges, now doing the same.
I think people like Luxon preen themselves into imagining their place in this country's history and I'm looking forward to his legacy being leading the first one-term right wing government to defeat in 2026.
Money
https://archive.li/wHEkz#selection-1269.95-1273.67
But, but
That nice Mr Luxon says that the OCR cut will make NZers better off….
I'm on NZ Super so how much will I get and when???
Satire mode off
A typical Luxon open-door truism. Those 2,685 18- and 19-year-olds receiving a Jobseeker Support Health Condition Disability benefit who might have their benefit cut off are most unlikely to be better off. Although Luxon might argue that they can be proud [of something else thanks to the Coalition].
The OCR cut will CUT the interest rates for my investments!!
DUH how does that make me better off?
"Oh dear. How sad. Never mind!" Sergeant -Major Williams on the latest polling…..
I can't feel particularly excited about this. As others have remarked, having votes moving around within blocs doesn't really mean much. If instead there were some significant shifts from one bloc to another (preferably theirs to ours) then that would be cause for celebration.
My thoughts as well.
In the days of Key and English National consistently polled in the mid 40s but had no mates. They were routinely criticised for cannibalising their natural allies.
Its fun to poke fun at them now as they crash into the 20, but the right block still has the same or very similar support to what it had during the Key years.
Which sets things up for a very interesting year in 2026 as we get closer to the election.
I take no notice of Curia taxevaders / atlas cult polls. they are run by hard right wingers simply to manipulate.