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8:10 pm, December 17th, 2025 - 22 comments
Categories: act, election 2026, greens, labour, national, Politics, polls -
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The last poll of the political year and it is a doozie. Labour is 8 points ahead of National.
With NZ First and Act support National is still within reach of Labour and Green and Te Pati Maori but they are behind. And the trend is in the wrong direction.
National MPs will now be wondering about their future. Many of them will disappear on this result.
And NZ First is showing no sign that it will agree to be part of a future coalition involving David Seymour.
Next year is going to be very interesting …
I get why you're excited, but there's no margin of error specified here, nor poll sample size, so could just be xmas silly season stuff: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/582108/labour-has-eight-point-lead-over-national-in-latest-poll
If real, could be a shift of sentiment, but the polls lately seem somewhat all over the place as if there really are different publics showing up due to different sampling methods.
It is here
https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360915794/new-poll-puts-labour-well-ahead-national-and-box-seat-form-government
Thanks, margin is 3% @ more than 1000 so a standard poll. MS is right to read it as significant lift for Labour. I deem the CGT has got the thumbs up from voters.
Who cares? It is the big mo that is important …
😁
The most exciting bit is that all these people believe Labour is controlling the economy even though it's not in govt:
Since the economy was doing ok when they were defeated at the last election, it obviously wasn't the economy, stupid, and a clear instance of the neolib stance being proven wrong. Yet despite that, Labour are somehow exerting a magical power to cause the economy to drift sideways due to Willis not being able to control it!
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360915882/who-and-who-down-parliament-wraps-year
Also, Chippy is still preferred PM on 45% ahead of Luxon on 39%. Unheard of for a first term PM in year 2
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/582108/labour-has-eight-point-lead-over-national-in-latest-poll
please fix the typo in your name for next comment, cheers.
If 'everyday Kiwis' are stuck with that deliberately
middlingmuddling charlatan Willis, and a ‘government’ by and for the sorted much longer, then God Defend NZ Aotearoa.Happy Holidays everyone 🙂
The most interesting thing about this poll isn’t the Labour–National horse race. It’s that it may be pointing to an inversion of coalition risk.
Ordinarily under MMP, the minor partners wear most of the backlash from voters. Either because they’re seen as having too much sway (“tail wagging the dog”), or because they’re accused of selling out their principles to prop up an ideologically messy government for a few baubles (call it the James Shaw effect).The major party tends to act as the shock absorber.
Here, though, ACT and NZ First look comparatively steady while National takes the hit. If that pattern is real, it suggests a reversal of the usual dynamic: accountability is pooling at the major party, without control pooling there to quite the same degree.
The question is whether that’s a systemic shift where minor parties can retain brand clarity while the major party absorbs the cost of governing, or a contingent moment specific to this National/ACT/NZ First configuration.
But the polling at least suggests it’s worth treating as more than a one-off.
next one will be interesting, with the post-Christmas bank balance freak outs.
Well this is a unique situation where the minor coalition parties are having more sway on policy than National. I suppose this is the result of having a weak PM.
That's one possible read. It could also be that this represents a structural change in how coalition governments approach managing political risks.
But we probably won't know (if we ever do) until after the next election.
I did think to myself, Chris Hipkins wanting to be the next Chris as PM will likely be beaten to it by Bishop
Probably shortly after New Year. Current Chris will 'reflect' over the break and decide to spend more time with family.
he will become "Lazer focused" on the need to spend time with family
I think this is great. It is pointing to a Labour Greens government. Both parties know we have to work hard to lift our vote ; made particularly hard with the recent Electoral Amendment Act passed under the CoC. We used to target the enrolled non vote. Now we also have to target the non enrolled, get them signed up and then out to vote. I feel some good old fashioned political organising coming up.
@Darien – you are absolutely right – turnout will decide the outcome of the next election, which is why it is no accident the Nat/NZF/ACT combo resorted to a massive gerrymander. The latter two think their electorate segments are safe.
The 2005 election strategy did target the enrolled non-vote but ENV was particularly significant in that election because of what happened to our massive polling lead in 2004, that was killed by the GMO fiasco. ENV targeting became progressively less useful as a strategy.
In reality we ran 2005 as a turnout strategy where all the souths were critical. We did significantly lift turnout, and organisation was the key. You are absolutely right that this time we need to run a strong enrolment campaign and once again organisation will be the key, coupled with relevant policies that will motivate engagement.
The good news is that we have an energised membership that is up for the fight. The danger is top-down reliance on overseas-derived campaign comms strategies from Oz where they have compulsory voting, or UK where they still have FPP and Labour won with the smallest of small-target comms strategies and is now sunk in the polls.
As for policy, I don't think CGT made that much difference. I think any lift came from the hypothecated doctor-visit policy – specific, real, relevant, deliverable. We need more of the same to help build support, and not at the last minute in the campaign period fog.
Auckland will be key and South Auckland crucial. Much thought needs to be given to turnout there; getting enough votes just to elect the MP will not be sufficient.
Post-Freshwater
Nov 2024
National-Labour 34-31 ACT-NZF 14 (bad 48-44)
Green 13
June 2025
Labour-National 34-32 ACT-NZF 16 (bad 48-43)
Green 11
October 2025
Labour-National 34-31 ACT-NZF 20 (bad 51-43)
Green 9
December 2025
Labour-National 38-30 ACT-NZF 17 (bad 47-46)
Green 8
A nice Lab-Nat trend. The bad is holding up though.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_New_Zealand_general_election
Yes, and next year it'll be promises and lies wrapped up as lollies and the average ignorant kiwi voter will put them straight back in again.
Heartening up to a point, but if you add up the figures the RW bloc (as at present constituted) is still fractionally ahead.
Best early Christmas present.
Awesome trend.
There's so many New Zealanders wanting a better country than the direction we're in.