Daily Review 12/09/2016

Written By: notices and features - Date published: - 54 comments
Categories: Daily review

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54 comments on “Daily Review 12/09/2016”

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    2. 2.2

      26 + 13 + 11 = 50

      ONE News Poll: National rides high, Labour slips to lowest since election

      There are fresh worries for Labour following the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll.
      The party has slipped three points to 26 per cent. That’s the lowest it’s been in the ONE News poll since the last election when it recorded 25 per cent.
      National, however, remains in fine form riding high, steady this month at 48 per cent, the same result it picked up on election night in 2014.

      The Greens are trucking along solidly up one per cent to 13, although the big mover is New Zealand First which is up to two points in our poll to 11 per cent.

      The poll of just over 1000 voters was taken between the 3rd and 7th of September and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent.

      https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/one-news-poll-national-rides-high-labour-slips-lowest-since-election

      1. 2.2.1

        Labour has been quick to attack the poll, leader Andrew Little saying the poll is “bogus” and he doesn’t accept it. He says he has seen other polls that tell a completely different story.

      2. 2.2.2

        Lab 26+Gr 13+NZF 11=50%= 60 seats at least, maybe 61.

        This means they could well form the government. I think the reading of the poll could be a little biased in favour of the Nats. It assumes Dunne and the MP will win a couple of seats between them and Hone will not win TTT. These are questionable assumptions.

        In any event the Nats only have to slip to 46% to be dead in the water,

        Meanwhile Key drops to 38% and Little is up to 10%.

    1. 4.1

      Seems someone fell asleep on the edit/lock button. Either that or they’re way ahead of the times and left us all stranded back here….;-)

      1. 6.1.1

        Not sure why her doc even let her out in public just 2 days after a pneumonia diagnosis. She clearly was not ready to be out.

        1. 6.1.1.1

          Damned if she does, more damned by the Captain Hindsights of the world if she doesn’t.

          Almost made it to the car, though. A little more iced water might have made the difference. That suit (didn’t look thin, body armour of not), 28 degrees, pneumonia, and an hour and a half ceremony? I’m not sure Trump would be able to pull it together that long under those conditions. Hell, I’m not sure I would.

          1. 6.1.1.1.1

            Bed rest after a late pneumonia diagnosis doesn’t require a Nobel Prize in Medicine. (How her personal doctor diagnosed “allergies” as the cause of Clinton’s cough and missed the ***pneumonia*** is a whole other issue.)

            And what the hell were her staff doing letting her attend an hour and a half ceremony just 2 days after a pneumonia diagnosis? She clearly was in no condition for it.

                  1. 6.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1

                    I think the incident will permanently cost Clinton about 1.0% to 1.5% points in the polls.

                    The frailty at a 9/11 event, followed up by several hours more deception and dishonesty from her campaign (that she had simply “overheated” to feeling great a couple of hours later at a photo op outside her daughters apartment) until someone decided to come clean hours later in the day on Friday’s pneumonia diagnosis which they had apparently been hiding up until the point they couldn’t any more, then eventually cancelling her travel plans to California because she was still not that well.

            2. 6.1.1.1.1.2

              And you don’t need a phd in journalism to guess how the Captain Hindsights in the world would have portrayed her not turning up to a ceremony commemorating 9/11.

                1. 6.1.1.1.1.2.1.1

                  Fuck no. They’d say that as well as saying she doesn’t give a damn.
                  Pneumonia is transitory. Being mentally and emotionally unfit to treat the parents of fallen soldiers with respect?

                  Clinton with a cough is a thousand times mores suited to the role than trump, even if his doctors certificate wasn’t utter bullshit.

      1. 6.2.1

        don’t know but since he’s been doing 5x or 10x more public rallies than Hillary, he probably wants a break

        Either that or his campaign has some massive and unexpected change in the works

    1. 7.1

      Winston will go with Labour. One of his conditions will be no Green cabinet members. He hates Key with a vengeance since 2008.

      2. 7.1.2

        Winston will go with Labour.

        Perhaps, but Labour would have to be over 30% for Winston to be able to justify such a move to both his party and to the wider electorate.

        1. 7.1.2.1

          29+15+12=56 is a safe majority. This would be against 12+42=54 (plus Seymour).

          Under this scenario it could make sense to go with Labour, but the Nats have to drop to 42%. That could happen easily.

          1. 7.1.2.1.1

            I think 53% is a safe majority for a first term govt so 29+13+11 would work just as well.

            Having said that I see zero chance that National will go under 43%/44% next election, which is where I differ from you.

        2. 7.1.2.2

          Winston will justify the move through his/nz1st antipathy to immigration and the TPPA both of which Labour has said they will curtail in some ways. There are many other policies where NZ1st is far closer to Labour than National as well.

          NZ1st is centrist authoritarian
          National is extreme right-wing authoritarian
          Labour is mildy right-wing and neither liberal nor authoritarian

          So, even ideologically, NZ1st is closer to Labour than National.

    1. 10.1

      Love the ‘understatedness’ of your comment there Sirenia.

      I hope for a broad resolution by September next year, to ride over the madness and cruelty actually, that is ‘Brand Key’.

      Let’s hope that those with the power to reach that resolve remember that they represent us…..who are powerless. Who repose in them our trust to do as should be done.

      New Zealand is in real moral, spiritual, danger. In media we are positively encouraged to care about ourselves only. Nation of narcissists ?

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