Daily review 13/09/2021

Written By: notices and features - Date published: - 36 comments
Categories: Daily review

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36 comments on “Daily review 13/09/2021”

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  1. 1

    Oh no, another week at 4 !!

    I have a serious 1st world problem.

    I'm sick and tired of supermarket beer and wine.

    I have a distinctive Scottish name and Scotch is my game.

    As I've lived on my boat for the past 10 years I dont have a shore based delivery address so liquor deliveries at 4 dont work.

    Oh woe is me.

    2. 1.2

      Any recommendations from past experiences ??

      Can you not order and pick up at the local distribution centre. Know pre lockdown that if no one is at home they return to their yard and you can pick up packages the following day. Thee are a few whisky outlets that courier, so I have been informed.

    3. 1.3

      Seems to me that if you're on your boat alone, you could share a bubble with someone onshore? Swap 'em a fresh fish in exchange for each delivery? (that might just be my BMI talking – I sink like a brick so that the prospect of good food is all that will conceivably get me onto water these days lol)

      1. 1.3.1

        are swaps allowed under level four? (they weren't last time). Where are we at now with the whole virus on the groceries/courier package thing?

        1. 1.3.1.1

          Haven't looked it up, but if it's within a combined bubble according to the rules, it's not the same as exchanging stuff willy nilly with the neighbours.

      1. 2.1.1

        🙂 My folks were from Campbeltown and the Isle of Gigha (off the Kintyre Peninsula).

        G'gfather was a distillery man. There were 41 distilleries in the town at one stage.

  3. 3

    The range of human actions when it comes to mask wearing and vaccination shows a population wide variation of behaviour in response to perceived threat. I'm guessing persistence of this trait confers a reproductive advantage.

  4. 4

    Serious question (Has the government ditched elimination?)

    Last 3 days – Cases: 23, 20, 33

    Today – Level 3 in Auckland in 8 days 'likely', 'Get vaccinated this week' (Not as safe after this week because re-opening even if cases are 20+ a day?)

    1. 4.1

      Link for this interpretation? It doesn't read that way in nzherald reporting to me.

      I do think the govt should be updating the wage subsidy to support businesses staying closed in Auckland.

      2. 4.1.2

        That is my interpretation. I listened to the press conference and skimmed through the Herald article…what did you get from it?

        1. 4.1.2.1

          I didn't see any suggestion that the level would necessarily reduce in a week or so. Just that maybe there was a suggestion lockdown was working and the level would reduce when it was safe to do so.

          1. 4.1.2.1.1

            We are in L4 for at least a week, and then the Govt will review. I am sure they are acutely aware of the costs of an extended lockdown. But the costs of a Delta outbreak, when only 50% of the population is vaccinated, are horrendous. The health system is already falling apart. A Delta outbreak will demolish it, and wreck the economy anyway

              1. 4.1.2.1.1.1.1

                To make it simple, that still means at least a week.

                Things are tracking well at the moment, so if that continues then L3 looks likely. But if the tail is longer than than expected, or a new cluster seems to pop up, it could be another few weeks.

                There's no knowing, so no firm timetable. It just is what it is. Mate of mine is Buddhist – he seems to have the right vibe for this sort of shit.

                1. 4.1.2.1.1.1.1.1

                  Yep that's how I understood it too. Level 4 for another week, then if all going well, and only if numbers stay low, then level 3 after that. I didn't pick up on any indication of how long L3 would be, but imagine it would likely be two weeks.

                  1. 4.1.2.1.1.1.1.1.1

                    My understanding of "in principle" is if things stay the same (i.e. 20+ cases a day, a handful of "concerning cases) Auckland will still move down to level 3 next Wednesday.

                    2. 4.1.2.1.1.1.1.1.1.2

                      Steady at 20 cases a day for a week is bad. It means there's likely an unknown problem resulting in a plateau, and we aren't eliminating the bug.

                      What we should be seeing is a longish tail where knocking off the last few cases a day is as difficult as getting from 80 a day down to 20, but there's still progress on rolling average.

                      20, 20, 23, 15, 20, 19 is bad.

                      20, 15, 16, 12, 10, 8 is good.

                      20, 15, 12, 8, 0, 6 is even better.

                2. 4.1.2.1.1.1.1.2

                  My understanding of "in principle" is if things stay the same (i.e. 20+ cases a day, a handful of "concerning" cases) Auckland will still move down to level 3 next Wednesday.

    2. 4.2

      The crucial bit is the number of community cases where how they got the infection is unknown. Most of the cases are from known connections – typically family. Generally those cases are expected and people are already in isolation or quarantine when they test positive.

      I think that the dangerous unlinked cases is currently 17 and falling. That is because they are indicative of undetected probably asymptomatic infection sources or clusters in community that can trigger new outbreaks

      That said, we have had two unlinked cases over the weekend. That also said, it often takes a few days to to do things like getting the genomic analysis to eliminate where they didn’t get it from and to do a through look at possible points of contact.

      The purpose of the lockdown is to isolate sources of infection – to eventually drop the numbers by providing no way for people to get infected. It isn’t there to stop people who have already been isolated because they could have been infected from not testing positive. We don’t have magic medical preventatives to stop that happening.

      That is why when analysts are looking at reported cases, they are usually looking at measures like 7 days rolling averages to discern trends. It isolates random vagaries like how many people decided to get tested because the weather was better today.

      1. 4.2.1

        Yes, although we are seeing some close contacts spreading the virus before they are isolating. They said "only a handful" of the 17 are concerning. Yesterday there were 34 unlinked cases and that dropped by half today which was sudden.

        I agree, although since most of the people testing positive are people expected test positive, external factors affecting testing numbers would not have as much of an effect?

    1. 6.1

      Based on Professor Gibson's research, up to 45,350 deaths may be acceptable, although he notes that that is an "unduly harsh assessment". That's the number – equivalent to two million fewer expected life years – which he has calculated based on our elimination strategy. His conclusion?

      New Zealand’s safety-at-all-costs response to Covid-19 is likely to cause greater reductions in life expectancy than would eventuate with a more balanced response.

      I wouldn't focus on David Seymour as he isn't in Government. If you're concerned about the loss of life, I'd focus on the current strategy.

      https://researchcommons.waikato.ac.nz/bitstream/handle/10289/14388/NZAE_Poster_Gibson_Life_Expectancy_Reductions_from_Covid_Response.pdf?sequence=14&isAllowed=y

      1. 6.1.1

        Overall mortality due to country-specific strategic responses to the on-going COVID-19 pandemic will no doubt continue to be a matter of some debate within and between groups of public health professionals, economists and academics.

        Reduced mortality in New Zealand during the COVID-19 pandemic
        As the costs and benefits of strict public health measures are debated, New Zealand's low all-cause mortality during this period is a striking observation. Further research, including monitoring of all-cause and disease-specific mortality in different countries, is needed to better understand the direct effects of COVID-19 and the measures that can be taken to reduce its burden.

        Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic with the World Mortality Dataset

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