OK, that title is pure spin. National has dropped from 55% to 49% in the latest Roy Morgan, and Labour’s up from 29% to 34.5%. But that just shows the last poll was a rogue. Now, normal transmission, and National’s decline, has resumed. When you look at the Nat/ACT and Lab/Green/New Zealand First potential coalitions – the race is tight and closing fast.
John Key has been less cunning than some thought he would be. Going for a November election, he thinks, will let him leverage off the World Cup mini-boom, and enhance running Michael Jones and Inga Tuigamala as candidates. But it means 5 months for the Budget cuts to hurt and gives us 5 more months to work. So, what are we going to do?
Periodically I run a scan to identify network parasites that are sucking up our bandwidth and processing resources in excess. Of course I leave the benign parasites that provide search facilities alone. But I stomp on the nasties.
Tonight the biggest parasite appears to have been a New Zealand government department – the Department of Internal Affairs.
So John Key has flip flopped and decided to rule out working with Winston Peters again. He’s trying to portray that as a principled decision, about running an “aspirational” government. So why did he need to spend so many months working out what his principles are? No, it’s a political decision. Key thinks he can squeeze a little more milage out of flogging the dead horse that is Winston Peters.
The PM has called a surprise press conference for 12:45 today, and is tipped to announce a November 26th election date. A further “major announcement” is also expected.
Update: Election date November 26 confirmed.
We face a stark choice this year: a Labour-led government, which will create fairer tax and invest in jobs and innovation, or National-led government, which will govern for the kleptocracy, giving them tax cuts, then selling our assets and slashing our public services to pay for them. So why is the Goffice doing such a bad job making the case?
Ironically, the best response to Key’s ‘slash and sell’ agenda came from Obama, whose spotlight Key is always trying to share: “Cutting the deficit by gutting our investments in innovation and education is like lightening an overloaded airplane by removing its engine. It may feel like you’re flying high at first, but it won’t take long before you’ll feel the impact.”
While we’re all eagerly awaiting Tracy Waktins et al’s reviews of John Key’s controversial decision to wear a mauve tie in his state of the nation speech, I thought I would look at some of the reasons why asset sales are such a stupid idea.
It’s always so wonderful to load up Granny Herald and see some wealthy late middle-aged grump (I’m picking this one is John Roughan) taking a swipe at the poor in the editorial. Today, Granny says we can’t afford to give mums more paid leave or more Working for Families for young kids. Hmm. But we can still afford those tax cuts for the rich?
Will New Zealand First get back into Parliament after the election? If they do, it changes everything. A range of new governing coalitions become possible – both National and Labour-led. Can the Left trust Winston Peters to side with Labour over National? Could a Left+NZF government work? Jenny looks at the issues.
Wow. The first edition of Hone Harawira’s new opinion column in the Sunday Star Times is a jaw-dropping read. He frankly states the party has sold out it values for cabinet seats – put coalition before kaupapa. It’s a brazen attack on Tariana Turia, and confirmation he intends to stay with the Maori Party and, some day, lead it back to its roots.
The Herald today has an article that serves as a stalking-horse for privatisation of public assets. Privatisation is a core part of National’s agenda- it will have to push for it in some form at the election. Articles like this one are all about softening us up for that campaign.
Recently, I did a post on how Labour should be focused on creating an over-arching narrative that embodies its broad set of policies. […]
A strange little article in the Sunday-Star Times praises National’s ‘rejuvenation’ project. Well, excuse me but 3 MPs out of 53 announcing their retirement and 2 quitting under clouds of corruption during a term hardly equals rejuvenation. In fact, National faces the same problem that Labour did – too little turnover.
Our guest poster writes about a letter he had published in the Herald recently. A clever wee missive, it started ‘helpful’ in tone but had a sting in the tail on the inaction of Key’s do nothing government in the face of recession, unemployment, and peak oil. The Herald cut off the sting leaving a ‘pro-Key’ letter. What are they up to?
Campbell has a good post on the problem of voters’ emotional reactions to Key and Goff as exemplified by the Sunday-Star Times Horizon poll (the striking thing is how little emotional response they elicit). I’ll look at the party numbers. Horizon tries to include which way the undecideds will fall – the results have National worried.
The Sunday Star-Times has produced an interesting article on the role of emotion in people’s voter choices leading into this year’s General Election. […]
Farrar and Slater are trying to knee-cap a poll in the SST tomorrow. They know the numbers because Key’s office told them. Obviously jittered. Slater says it has NZF at 8.9%. Movement of ipredict stocks suggest its bad news for Nats and Labour. If Nats are in mid-40s then they’re in danger territory. Very hard for them to find a majority.
What’s to stop a government minister taking taxpayer money and giving it to, say, a family friend or a political slush fund? In theory, lots. There’s a formal budget-formation process through the ministeries and Cabinet, the Budget then has to be approved by Parliament, and the PM would sack any minister who tried such blatant corruption. Wouldn’t he?
Following Key’s ‘I’ll have a hissy fit and quit if you don’t re-elect me’ interview yesterday, the Herald has an interview with Phil Goff. The contrast is stark between smile and wave’s self-centred answers and Goff’s focus on delivering real results for NZ.
I’ve been traveling around for Christmas/New Year’s. It hadn’t hit me until I drove about 1000kms around NZ just how much more expensive petrol has become. The extra cost is a shock when you fill up and it hurts the economy. I got wondering what the political impact is. The numbers suggest it matters a lot.
We’ve always said that John Key was only in politics for his personal reward. He just wants to have ‘PM of NZ’ on his CV. He just wants to go around smiling and waving at people who know who he is because of the office he holds. Now, he’s admitted as much by telling the Herald he’ll quit politics if we don’t re-elect him.
Having a read of Fairfax’s 2011 political predictions, and their self-grading of their 2010 predictions, two things jumped out. The first is that Fairfax’s political staff have now wedded their reputations as political analysts to a National victory. The second is that they ignore the impact of the economy, and petrol prices in particular, on politics.
The slow round of extended family xmas locations has this year located Lyn and I in Christchurch. Which has made for an interesting […]
With only a couple of days left in 2010 the Herald has released its latest digipoll showing a slight closing of the gap between National and Labour. But that’s not the interesting part…
Back in 2008 it was clear what National wanted to do with wages and if Tane was still around he’d be able to […]
It seems we don’t have a government at the moment. John Key is incommunicado in Hawaii. The Acting PM, Bill English, and Key’s press people refuse to speak for him. Someone needs to front up because serious questions are emerging about the honesty of statements Gerry Brownlee and Murray McCully made in Parliament and to the New Zealand people.
Phil Twyford is selected as the new Labour candidate for Te Atatu from a strong field.
Phil Twyford is a formidable campaigner, as I know from past experience. I almost pity whatever sacrificial lamb that National put up in that electorate.
The Right often espouses the mantra of “choice”. How we do better if we leave things up to the private sector, so we can all get what we want, instead of forcing us into the same solution.
Choice is great for ice-cream, but I don’t think it’s great for government services.
Wayne Mapp to retire “for personal and family reasons” at the 2011 election. Who’s going to be flown in to replace him?
Key has been very busy defending sacked Minister Pansy Wong. He has been desperately ignoring the calls for an Auditor General’s investigation as the cracks in the whitewash report on her illegal spending continue to grow. But Key is very quick to call for the Auditor General to investigate a single solitary billboard.
So John Key predicts an unhappy New Year for Phil Goff who is at risk of being rolled… Because the ShonKey DonKey knows so much about the Labour Party and the extra-secret hidden leadership battles that are certain to be going on, according to his own imagination.
Get on with running the country John, and get us out of a double-dip recession before you start speculating on things you know nothing about.
Goff has given several excellent policy speeches this year, and the last one was no exception. Squarely targeted at a middle New Zealand that saw little of National’s tax cuts and far more of their job losses and rising prices. Pointing out the obvious, that National has failed to deliver on the economy, and has no viable plan to do so. In short, a great platform for election year.
Great excitement in the Sunday papers over Winston Peters / NZF. “Poll puts NZ First back in contention”! “Peters the kingmaker again”! Don’t believe a word of it.
