Buried in Friday’s Herald’s media section was a big political story. After John “Moonbeam” Key had his hour of talking about his cat while the country was being downgraded, Radio Live responded to the complaints of this blatant and illegal political favouritism by offering to host a Leaders’ debate. It was canned, though, when Moonbeam was to afraid to front up.
National Party pollster David Farrar has been polling in Epsom and the results are not good for the Right. Epsomites are pissed off with their seats being used as a backdoor for ACT into Parliament. They don’t like the gall of the Nats taking out Hide, slotting in Banks and expecting nothing to change. They don’t like dopey Brash.
Three Labour MPs gave their valedictories last night; Lynn Pillay, Pete Hodgson, and Jim Anderton in that order. Jim’s career path in political employment was a bit roundabout, Lynn’s the shortest (she’ll kill me for that!), and Pete’s spell the longest. Most valedictories speak of past achievement. Unusually, Pete Hodgson focussed more on the future, so his valedictory became manifesto and challenge. Poverty and sustainability were the main themes – read more here.
Once again, the Greens have the best billboards and a great policy platform. But the really clever bit is their positioning. A lot of people don’t like National’s policies and don’t want them having a majority. They like Labour’s policies but not the personnel. Enter the Greens: good policies, nice people, and, officially, willing to work with and counterbalance National.
Bill ‘Double Dipton’ (or should that be ‘Double Downgrade’?) English says people aren’t focused on politics, which is why National is so high in the polls. When they focus on the main election issue of economic management, DD says the gap will close. Not exactly a strong defence of his and Key’s performance as economic leaders.
The credit rating downgrades have been quite a political earthquake, and the aftershocks are going to continue for some time.
Prime Minister Moonbeam clearly broke the law on Friday on the radio show he chose to run instead of dealing with the downgrade crisis. The law is clear: Key wasn’t allowed to make political statements. He did. He made a promise on broadcasting policy and gave the Nats’ first cut spin-line on the downgrade.
Republicans have accused President Obama of waging class war by calling for tax increases on the rich. Warren Buffet goes straight to the result and declares the rich have won. There may be more battles to come however – Buffet is in favour of higher taxes on the rich in the interests of fairness. He should have been on the Tax Working Group.
The Nats have released no substantial policy since the Budget and look unlikely to do so. Their election strategy was clearly to keep attention away from a comparison of their policy vs Labour’s, and keep it on Brand Key. The exploding economic crisis has caught the Nats’ flat-footed. Now, they need economic ideas urgently but have none to offer.
What a bizarre week of polls. The Fairfax poll and the Roy Morgan polls both showed swings from National to Labour. The TVNZ poll and the TV3 poll did not. (Hey TV3 – that’s some pretty sloppy writing!) In other news, Key finally equalled Helen Clark’s peak rating as preferred PM.
The weeks of the RWC were supposed to be a politics-free zone. Bread and circuses. It hasn’t turned out that way, as both Armstrong and O’Sullivan point out in weekend opinion pieces. The credit downgrades have dropped a bomb in the middle of the political landscape. But I think that both are wrong in expecting any action from the Nats.
Don Brash has weaved his magic again. He’s going to have a minder now and everything he says will be vetted. But it’s too late. His cannabis speech brilliantly highlighted the disjunction between ACT’s values and those of the man they need to win Epsom. A major ACT donor calls John Banks a twerp, while Don Nicolson has, surprisingly, sided with Brash.
Like the recent Fairfax poll, yesterday’s Roy Morgan shows a significant swing from National to Labour.
Another in what looks like becoming a regular series.
Asset sales are on the agenda before the election. Michael Fay, strangely, is leading a coalition of underbidders for the Crafar farms against a bid from China worth $300 million more. According to the Waikato Times, New Zealanders have forgotten Fay’s involvement in the toxic asset sales of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s under both Labour and National governments. That would be a pity.
The latest Fairfax poll has the Labour – National gap closing a bit.
John Key promised to put Food in poorer Schools across New Zealand to help children to learn. What has he done about it? One cheap, but very well-publicised stunt. Will we see any substance? Or is this another promise like not raising GST, wages catching Australia, or capping not cutting the civil service?
Nick Smith is looking at issuing a “Government policy statement” to ensure that the Auckland Plan complies with their agenda. They may ban the urban limits that are proposed to keep green, productive land around Auckland and help ensure rates stay low and public transport works in a more liveable city.
On Sunday, Don Brash decided to muse on decriminalising cannabis. It’s not ACT policy, we’re meant to understand, it’s just the Party Leader making a speech and saying ‘this would be a good idea’. In classic Brash style, he hadn’t told John Banks, who gave Brash a public smacking on the idea. Now the question is: why would the people of Epsom vote for these two?
John Hartevelt – “Key is massively over-exposed on any number of fronts, but nowhere more so than at Pike River.” Key routinely promises […]
Out of the blue, John Boscawen has announced he is withdrawing from ACT’s list. It’s an odd departure from an odd man. ‘Family reasons’ is the line. Not exactly creative. Is the real reason National’s ‘fixit’ Bill? Boscawen is a true believer in ACT’s libertarian principles and doesn’t do compromise. Was being asked to sign a retrospective blank cheque the final straw?
One of the criticisms levelled at MMP is that it means the tail wags the dog. But if it wasn’t for the Alliance, the Greens and New Zealand first, we wouldn’t have Kiwibank, home insulation, or the Gold Card. We wouldn’t have a competitive New Zealand-owned bank, healthy homes for families who need it, and opportunities for social interaction for seniors. I say thanks to those parties and to MMP.
Three time election loser Don Brash has announced he will stand in North Shore. Having lost the safe National seat of East Coast Bays twice to Social Credit(!) and the unloseable election as leader in 2005, his odds of defeating even Maggie Barry, a novice best known for her gardening, are poor. But will he split the rightwing vote and let Ben Clark slip though?
Several commentators have suggested recently that the Greens have crossed some kind of “credibility threshold” and are poised for a strong performance in November. Is this the year of the Greens?
Professor Robert Wade of the London School of Economics and author of the acclaimed Governing the Market will speak on this topic in association with Victoria University School of Government at Lecture Theatre 2, Rutherford House, Wellington at 6pm on Thursday 22nd September. Read more for abstract. Register at www.fabians.org.nz.
The Greens launched their economic policy today – I attended on behalf of the Fabian Society. Titled “100,000 green jobs for New Zealanders, it follows their plan to bring 100,000 children out of poverty by 2014. The focus was on leveraging green priorities, using direct government investment, changing the way state-owned companies work, and shifting the drivers for green jobs in the private sector.
118 years to the day when NZ became the first country in the world to give women the vote. You can imagine how […]
Today Labour released another substantial policy, a plan for recovery in Christchurch. It’s a policy that works for ordinary people, and a much needed helping hand for displaced red-zone residents.
The Campaign for MMP has a series of vids that we’ll be running. This one looks at how MMP has lifted the representation of women in Parliament. Makes you wonder about the people who want to send us backwards. By the by, due the paucity of women on National and ACT’s lists, the next Parliament is likely be to be first since 1978 to see the number of women decrease.
The horse bolted last weekend. Murray McCully has been hard at work on the stable door. But the rail passengers voted with their feet…
Why are the young so disengaged from the political process? 2011 is shaping up to be even worse than last election.
From the miscellaneous bits of news department – a particularly grim Roy Morgan poll, and the announcement that Sue Bradford is standing for Mana against Paula Bennett in Waitakere.
The Child Poverty Action Group has released yet another shaming report on child poverty in NZ. The Nats’ cuts to Working for Families are making matters worse. If the election doesn’t return a Labour government, then we’re going to have three more years of inaction punctuated by brief ritual hand-wringing over each new report.
John Armstrong wants Labour to come out radically different after the Cup. Having refused to cover Labour’s skills package or its mining policy, he’s suddenly interested in policy. He wants Labour to suddenly adopt league tables and forget the 39% tax rate. Armstrong genuinely doesn’t seem to get it. Parties of the Left don’t pick and swap policies on a whim.
“Just keep to your promises. I was at some of the family meetings where you promised off camera to parents who were in tears that you would do your utmost to try to get the men out. Money was not a problem. Those same parents have gone home and cradled their kids that are crying. Do what you say and just pull your finger out and do it.”
If electricity assets were part privatised, future governments couldn’t make the kind of reforms that National made earlier this year because of the need to consider private investors’ rights. Pretty simple, eh? Tell that to Hekia Parata. Bill English has his head in the sand on the effect of falling markets and can’t guarantee Kiwi ownership.
