National MP *forgets* to declare $178,000 in donations
In breaking news New Plymouth National MP David MacLeod apparently *forgot* to declare $178,000 in declarations to the Electoral Commission.
Politics
elections
British politics – hurry up and wait for a general election
While I do not pick elections, I think it is safe to make this point. If Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party are holding on for a dramatic change in polling numbers, they are unlikely to see this happen. On current polling, even a 7% swing in their favour would not be enough to stop them from losing the election. Labour should not be complacent, but it is increasingly obvious that the voter coalition that helped the Conservatives win in 2019 has collapsed.
A Deliberate Recession
It is sickening to see how economic power is being used against ordinary New Zealanders right now.
National’s Overseas Gambling Levy policy figures are not rock solid
The IRD has estimated that National’s proposed Overseas Gambling Levy Policy will bring in $500 million less than it promised during the election campaign.
About the promoters electoral returns
The Electoral Commission has released the major promoters’ electoral returns. These show significant amounts of money being spent on getting Labour unelected but give no detail about how the campaigns were funded.
The problem with corporate money in electorate campaigns
The 2023 candidate election returns have released and it has emerged that Bathurst Resources Ltd contributed $32,600 to Patrick Phelps, who ran a spoiler campaign against Damian O’Connor in West Coast Tasman.
The best Electoral System that money can buy
The Independent Electoral Review Panel has recommended changes to the electoral system including the banning of any donations unless made by enrolled voters, a cap on the size of those donations and a requirement that third parties disclose all large donations that they receive.
Atlas smirked
A George Monbiot article in the Guardian made me wonder what effect the Atlas Network is having on New Zealand politics through the Taxpayer’s Union. Publicly available information suggests considerable funding is being made available and that the current Government’s priorities are precisely those that the Atlas Network would approve of.
Political comeback – Getting the sequencing right
A notably different approach to sequencing political comeback was on show at the VUW post-election seminar last week. Luxon put rebuilding the party first, Hipkins put it last. On policy Luxon was bottom-up and early, Hipkins was top-down and late.
Tobacco bans in NZ and the UK.
The decision in 2021 to introduce the smoking ban was a courageous one. Smoking causes many deaths each year and places a strain on the country’s health system. Smoking is addictive and we should do all we can to discourage young people from taking up this habit. This being said, putting a total ban on tobacco sales of people born after 2009 is well-meaning, but would likely have unintended and profoundly negative consequences.
Strong stable Government?
Today may be the day we have a new Government, that is as long as Act and NZ First can resolve their fight over who is to be Deputy Prime Minister.
The baubles of office
Now that the policy negotiations between Act National and NZ First have been concluded talks have progressed to the most sensitive and difficult area, who will get the baubles of office.
What will National do about special voting rights?
One of the most democratic changes that Labour made to the electoral system was to allow people to enroll and vote on election day. The right hate it. And may be planning to change it.
Hipkins endorsed
It was never going to be anything else, but two positive emerged. All policy options are back on the table, including tax, and there is a realisation that the main task ahead is to rebuild a strong and progressive party.
What happened in the Maori seats
The final results in the Māori electorates clearly indicate that there was a great deal of strategic voting taking place.
2023 Final results
National loses 2 electorate seats to Labour. Te Pāti Māori picked up two electorate seats from Labour which means that parliament will have a 2 seat overhang. Greens gain a seat. Nact needs a coalition buddy. Now we’re looking at the coalition phase of the long wait. Time to pull out the popcorn.
A point on the long wait
Today we will get the final election counts. It will now include the estimated specials of 20.2% of the vote. This can change the precise balance in parliament. A NAct coalition will probably require a partner party to secure a reliable majority. Unfortunately past political history is going to make that awkward. The chaos will be great for a political blog of the left. Not so good for the country.
Labour’s leadership
Now that the dust is settling it is time for the Labour Party to think about its future.
Has Labour become a cadre Party? Pt 1 Leadership
In 2021, I voted against Labour’s conference proposal for midstream leadership change to be determined by Caucus alone, saying that it risked Labour becoming a cadre party for elites. A series of posts will start with why the Caucus should not rush to a leadership vote.
Don’t get angry, get organised
Labour day is a good day for all progressives to start getting organised for the next three years and working on the election of the next progressive Government.
How the special votes may work out
Special vote counts may see Labour win back some important electorate seats and see the National/Act majority vanish.
NZ Election result
In parliamentary politics, there are no final victories. After losing the 2023 election, Labour must now immediately focus on winning in 2026.
Why are the Greens so happy?
The trad left/right spectrum people are wondering why the Greens are so happy. Didn’t the left just lose?
That was not as good as was hoped for
Last night was not a good night for the Labour Party …
Election Night 2023 on The Standard
A post for election night discussion on the Standard (and links for where to watch).
Neck and neck
Last post before election day but the big mo is on and the election is getting closer and closer.
Election day rules
The rules about election day are pretty clear. You may only keep existing election material up on a website or social media if all the following apply. This time we will start moderating all comments with rules at midnight. OpenMike will be the only open post. Normal service back at 7pm
About last night’s debate
It is very clear now why National did not agree to a further debate between the leaders. Last night’s debate between Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luzon was totally one sided.
Down to the wire
Two new polls were released last night and they both confirm a tightening of the race with the right slumping and the left improving.
The lost art of the heckle
What has happened to the fine art of intelligent heckling?
Managing Expectations: Community transmission of coronavirus in NZ was inevitable
The sad thing about the NZ COVID response is that overall it did deliver in that it protected the public health system and saved lives. But expectations about stopping all community transmission were set too high, and walking back from that politically has been challenging for Labour.
Winston Peters? I barely know him
National has over the past couple of weeks indicated that it will ring Winston if it needs his votes, then saying that if he negotiates too hard it will seek a further election. This is real coalition of chaos stuff.
The Big Mo
Recent polls suggest that National and Act is going backward while Labour has stabilised. A win for the left is possible but this last week will be all important.
Like two cats in a sack
The minor leader’s debate last night confirmed the fact that David Seymour and Winston Peters hate each other.
Managing Expectations – the NZ Housing crisis and Labour’s response.
Watching the 2023 election campaign in New Zealand, one of Labour’s challenges appears to be that it has failed to manage voters’ expectations over the last six years. Recalling the election campaign in 2017, Jacinda Ardern gave people hope that politics could be different. However government is about handling problems – like building at scale and pandemics.
National set to renege on Paris Agreement
National says it is not interested in meeting its financial obligations under the international Paris Agreement on climate change, signed by the previous National government. Reneging on the accord will have huge trade, diplomatic and reputational damage implications.