Chances are pretty high that you would have heard National party MPs or candidates claim that there will be an extra 220,000 jobs over the next few years.
It is a central economic narrative, features heavily in National Party advertising and both Nicola Willis and Christopher Luxon have used it repeatedly to counter the accusation that they are pretty crap at their job of running the economy.
It also avoids the criticism that last election they promised to fix things up and have not done so. They are claiming that things are on the improve but that we just have to wait a little longer. And you will not hear them talking about how in June 2023 the unemployment rate was 3.6%, or how the prediction is, and this is important, in 2030 unemployment will settle to 4.3%.
So unemployment is and will be worse. But National has this figure it is clutching onto for dear life to give the impression that things will be better.
How has it achieved this? Primarily because of immigration being between 17,500 and 40,000 per annum for the forecast period, young people leaving education and going into the workforce and an easing in interest rates and inflation, primarily fuel prices.
So no magic. Just National claiming credit for population growth and damage from their handling of the economy receding.
Luxon was questioned about this by John Campbell on Radio New Zealand. It was pointed out to him that the numerical decrease in unemployed would be 30,000 to 35,000 people. The clear implication was that the figure Luxon is using is bogus.
Luxon’s response was word salad. He did not have the I swear he talks without drawing breath. He spent a lot of time talking but did not actually address the central point of the question.
But this should be a lesson. You cannot trust anything that National says.
Problem is even worse when you look at NEET unemployment in 15-24yo age group. See NZIER report.
Summarised in at TV1 "Youth unemployment at 'crisis level', AI looms on recovery – NZIER". There are far more in that existing NEET (not in education, employment, or training) group than any increase that the Coalition is trying to say that they will raise actual employment of the current working age generations to.
So far the only response that National and it idiotic partners has had is to throw the burden back on families, and implicitly to raise crime levels with the penniless youth.
AI: Jobseeker Changes (18–19 years): Starting November 2026, the government is cutting Jobseeker support for 18- and 19-year-olds whose parents earn a combined income over $67,225. [1]
Certainly they aren’t encouraging kids from getting into education, having cut the first years fees for any tertiary education. Done nasty things to the funding for apprenticeships.
I'd guess that National just likes building prisons, and is probably paid to do so with political donations.
Campbell's challenge for Luxon is easy to meet:
"I don't care".
“Well, I’d be careful saying that, John"
The stats are a cruel mask to the hopelessness and internalised rage I get talking to people under 25.
I wish I could hire more of them.
The Greens doing a new version of the Green Jobs for youth unemployed for 6 months or more is so on point.
I'm old enough to remember the old PEP jobs for school-leavers and new graduates back in the early 1980's. These got me and many others I met at the time started on productive careers. And that was under Muldoon's government – which shows how far the Nats have fallen down an economically extremist rabbit hole since then.
Here is the good news for people who were born in the 1990s and beyond.
The messages being trotted out are the same ones that were trotted out all the way back to the onset of neoliberalism.
In those days, New Zealanders were pretty naive and believed it when Roger Douglas and David Lange told them that they'd done the hard stuff and the land of milk and honey was just around the corner, only to be fooled.
Then, for 1990, National said "You've had six years of this, don't take any more, vote for change", only for Ruthenasia to hit and NZ got fooled again, big-time that time.
I think NZ got fooled again while Key was PM, and he squeezed 3 terms by virtue of an uplift in global economies generally.
But, there's a lot more savvy out there now. Two or three generations worth, I suspect. Now, such promises are taken like the car dealer's 'one little old lady owner who only took it to Church on Sundays' spin. I don't think this promise of 220,000 jobs just around the corner will be taken very seriously by any but the most zealous right whingers, and they're going to vote right anyway.
Given all that's happening in the world, why would there be all those jobs just around the corner?
You summed the neoliberalism fantasy perfectly thank you.
I don't think it is right to link David Lange with Roger Douglas. Roger stuck to his chosen sneaky undermining role along with his gang like superglue and David was outvoted by the others round the table after putting Roger down for a while. He rose again, hallelujah went all the smart arses. David wanted to be a Prime Minister but Roger wanted to minister his form of economic-nouveau-handshake style. Min of Fin as a chess piece would rival the King wouldn't it?
Didn't Jack Tame point out we need 270 000 just to stay level.
National are shit, any body that doesn't understand that government needs to create employment shouldn't be in government,
Its the general public who need to understand that not the political players.
Once they see that and equate it with the coalitions willful destruction of public works for education, health, PT housing etc this election could be a doddle.
Sadly we live in the age of disinformation
171,000 unemployed people (https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/unemployment-rate/; June 2026 quarter).
440,000 underutilised people (https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/underutilisation-rate/; June 2026 quarter).
Skill shortages everywhere.
Even Winston Peters and NZ First think that immigrants are a solution!?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics_election-2026/1839805/nz-first-promises-to-implement-shortage-led-skilled-work-visas
True to form, National always wildly exaggerate possible job numbers on any of their schemes.
Always claim there will be thousands of jobs, and never back up any claim.
Now that they have postponed the proposed LNG terminal the number of jobs that would have been created has mysteriously dropped from thousands to a few dozen.
Shame that the media never call them out on their lies but I suppose that would be too much to ask of our intrepid fourth estate.
Those who watched the Chris vs Chris debate last week will remember the stunned silence when Luxon told us interest rates are coming down.
He will say anything to get power.
To reiterate the words of "The British Working Man"
"They promise you every thing, give you nothing, and before you get it – they take it off you"