RNZ-Reid poll happy dance

This is good. It’s one poll, trends are better, but what it gives left wing parties and volunteers a big confidence boost twenty days out from the start of voting, thirty-two days from election day proper.

The good news:

• National have dropped to mid twenties
• Labour and Green are looking strong on 45% combined
• A centre left government could be formed with Opportunity, and Labour are the biggest polling party so Opportunity would talk with them first
• That government would have two more Green MPs (depending)
• A centre left government, and I can’t emphasise this enough, could form without Winston Peters.

A few complexities. It’s hard to tell how polling companies are calculating Te Pāti Māori seats.

Opportunity in this poll are on 5.5%. Their average over recent polls is higher (hence the value of the trend, not individual polls). But if they dropped below 5%, my back of the AI envelope calculation is there would be an overhang, with Left bloc on 62 and Right bloc on 60. I’d really like to see some proper calculations done, with different scenarios around Opportunity, Te Pāti Māori, and overhangs, and will update the post if I see any.

It’s not a done deal by any means, so let’s keep up the good work. I personally believe that how we all talk about the election at home, with family and friends, at work and play, and online, affects how people think and thus vote. Including getting people to vote at all, and swing voters. Kindness and encouragement go a long way, as does highlighting Labour, Green and Te Pāti Māori policy and positions that affect people’s every day lives. Let’s keep talking up the left.

In the meantime, enjoy!