US Election 2020

Written By: notices and features - Date published: - 137 comments
Categories: us politics - Tags:

Last polls close 1am EST Weds 5 Nov, which is 7pm NZT Weds 5 Nov.

Fivethirtyeight have the closing times for all states,

There’s a good chance we won’t know who won the presidential election on election night. More people than ever are voting by mail this year due to the pandemic, and mail ballots take longer to count than ballots cast at polling places. But because each state has its own rules for how votes are counted and reported, some will report results sooner than others. Those disparate rules may also make initial returns misleading: The margins in some states may shift toward Democrats as mail ballots (which are overwhelmingly cast by Democrats) are counted, while states that release mail ballots first may experience a shift toward Republicans as Election Day votes are tallied.

Here’s a general picture of how much of the vote we expect to be counted on election night in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. If you click on a given state, it’ll take you to a more detailed description of when to expect results and whether to expect a red or blue shift in the vote count.

NZT timeline from TNVZ journo @lukeappleby

Basically – a result could be called by a major US news outlet any time from 5pm NZT

Mobile version (thanks Fitz Bunny)

Coverage

The Guardian’s US Election page and live update page

NYT live updates (free login)

Aljazeera election pages and info graphic explainer

Real Clear Poltics (US)

270toWin (nonpartisan American political website that projects who will win United States presidential elections)

The Green Papers

Huffington Post

Fivethirtyeight

CNN

Stonekettle on twitter and Facebook

Rachel Maddow on twitter

Democracy Now election pages and livestream

Post any addition links in comments (twitter follows would be good too).

137 comments on “US Election 2020”

Comment numbers have changed to permanent references. Older quoted numbers may no longer identify the same comment.

    1. 1.1

      I don't see how Biden can win now. Only five states really at play now for the 35 further EC votes he needs & Trump ahead in every one. For Biden to win he needs to swing three of them but swing is in Trump's favour. Biden's vaunted 8 point lead has disappeared in a puff of smoke …another broken polling situation. Biden might even come of worse than Hillary did in terms of overall vote/electoral college vote. Sad toi say but it looks like another 4 years of Trumptardism.

      1. 1.1.1

        It pays to remember that Republicans vote on the day…democrats do mail-in…they are yet to be counted in key states ..so a trump call is a tad premature..

  2. 2

    Hey weka – pop it up the top when you finished editing (actually I just did it).

    I know that watching, hoping and probably getting rid of dimwitted tangerine codpiece is going to be very high on my wish list for the next couple of days.

    I also want to have a close look at the low to nonexistent morality of the Republican party as they attempt to legally disenfranchise voters.

  3. 3

    From NY Times summing up the basics of what to look for. The election day polls start opening in about 5 hours (GMT-5) (sometime eastern states at 6am), and then keep opening for about 5-7 hours later out to Honolulu. They close anywhere from 7pm to 9pm…


    There were the staggering early vote totals, with a record 97.6 million people already casting their ballots by mail or in person — a tectonic shift away from one-day voting that has been the staple of the American electoral system — and predictions that the total turnout would break the record set in 2016, when nearly 139 million people voted.

    There was the legal wrangling that has been a feature of this campaign even before Election Day, with a federal judge in Texas on Monday rejecting Republican efforts to invalidate more than 127,000 votes that were cast at drive-through locations in a Democratic stronghold.

    There was the plywood going up in Washington and other cities around the country, amid fears that the passions being stirred up by the campaign could lead to unrest or even violence, and with some states readying members of the National Guard, including Massachusetts, where Gov. Charlie Baker ordered 1,000 members of the National Guard to be on standby in case of turmoil following the election.

    Just as interesting as the presidential election are going to be the senatorial races..

    1. 3.1

      Let's hope all 3 branches go Democrat.

      House/Senate/President.

      Then Trump goes bust and ends up behind bars.

      Perfect ending to all the grift of the Orange Menace and the GOP.

      Next time around hopefully voter suppression will be cleaned up.

      Wishfull thinking.

  4. 4

    Do not forget the local races to enable redistricting. What a complicated system, seems like to many fingers in the pie.

    1. 5.1

      Nah – two people ‘left’ town. The Trump supporters…

      And you always have to remember the larger urban centers like Millsfield NH
      https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1323495626999500806?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1323495626999500806%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2020-11-03%2Fus-election-2020-live-updates-trump-biden-president%2F12841266

      ABC in aussie has a pretty good live coverage. Mostly waffling like a cricket announcers at present. But actually pretty amusing nonetheless.
      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-03/us-election-2020-live-updates-trump-biden-president/12841266

      2. 5.1.2

        The state of that white board. Uppercase mixed with lowercase. Looks like it was done by a child. And the fact they're writing results on a white board.

        How backward is the US?

      3. 5.1.3

        Well, at least it looks like the Hillary-hating Bernie-Bro from 2016 could choke down voting for Biden this time around.

        1. 5.1.3.1

          I support(ed) the policies of bernie sanders…so I guess I am by default a 'bernie-bro'…but I have never 'hated' Hillary clinton…I opposed her because to me she was/is the personification of all that is wrong with the democrat party establishment…and how right wing that party actually is…the last time I looked at an international political ideology spectrum the new zealand national party was more 'left' than the american democrat party.,.so really..to be in america and opposing the dysfunction engineered by both parties…hardly makes that opponent a radical/'hillary-hater'…eh..?..and of course the democrats have done it again..what they did in 2006..and have shafted all the progressives ..and picked biden..whose main quality/campaign theme is..that he is not the orange carbuncle..

    1. 6.1

      Don't worry the specials will not bring National to victory (you were the one suggesting we should not be surprised if National won our election indecision).

      It's either, the Brexit and then Trump or the pandemic syndrome at work – activating the what is going to happen next centre in the brain.

      PS The only known what next (for now at least), is how bad is the period from Nov 3 to inauguration in January next year going to be? What sort of relationship between Trump's personal denial/reluctant acceptance state and normal processing of election results is it going to be. Will the now normal distance between his narrative and that of others grow even further, or not? And with what impact to that nation and its governance?

      Trump spending the next three months in Florida setting up a reality show to replace the Kardashians (disappearing from DC to play the role of The new Invisible Man only out and about on twitter) while Pence is acting POTUS is not the worst.

    4. 6.4

      I paid quite a bit of attention to the 2016 election…and I called it for trump…this time I reckon biden will become the anti-trump president…only there because he isn't trump..

  7. 7

    Polls are now open in every state.

    Looks like the usual long snake lines in many places despite the early voting. FFS for a country that talks incessantly about freedom and democracy, they certainly dying on providing the infrastructure to provide it.

    The contrast with the efficient and uncrowded election here is startling.

    Trump did his usual dithering, boasting and whining on Fox and Friends. Just reading it sounds incoherent.

    Biden visited his dead family.

    Looks like the turnout on the day will be high despite the 100 million who have already voted early.

  8. 8

    Does anyone know the eligible population? 100m early sounds like a pretty good turnout induction, compared to earlier years maybe?

    1. 8.1

      Voting eligible population is about 240 million. Haven't seen any numbers for how many are actually registered.

      Estimates for total turnout this year range from 150 million to 180 million (yeah, right). 2016 turnout was around 135 million.

      100 million early votes is indeed unprecedented. In some states, early votes in 2020 exceed total votes cast in 2016. Most notably in Texas, where the polls are close enough that if the massive early vote is from a demographic that is often low turnout, then there may be a surprise result.

  9. 9

    RNZ just reported that millions of robo calls had been made urging people to stay home and not vote. Failed democracy …

    1. 9.1

      Robocalls. Threats. KKK calling cards hand delivered to mailboxes of houses with Biden signs.

      "We know where you live, we'll know how you vote" letters.

      Even without considering the 'official' voter suppression techniques, it's been a filthy cesspool for weeks.

      2. 9.1.2

        This is an eternal blind spot for US election analysts, who assume by default that their country is the most perfect democracy. It's a social fault that the confused pollsters always neglect to take that into account.

    2. 9.2

      Hmmm, it's Repugs that have a higher propensity for that kind of dirty trick. But it's also Repugs that are believed to be waiting for election day to vote, rather than early vote.

      Maybe the robocalls are targeted at registered Democrats?

      Or laying further groundwork for discrediting the results?

    1. 13.1

      The Mandarin Mugabe retains all powers until noon on January 20, 2021. Including the bigly red button that really works tremendously.

      The existing Congress retains all their powers until noon on January 3, 2021, when the new Congress gets sworn in. Expect a frantic push to confirm all open judge slots, and pressure on old reactionary judges to step down in time for new replacements to be appointed and confirmed.

        1. 13.1.1.1

          Yeah, it's a worry.

          Best case, he'll spend that eleven weeks alternating between blind raging ineffectual tantrums and consoling himself with hamberders.

          But we should all be ready for the "if I can't have it, nobody can" moment.

          1. 13.1.1.1.1

            His malevolent narcissistic disorder together with his sociopathy means your last sentence is a distinct possibility. Their only course of action if he tries would be to declare him insane (which he is) and lock him up somewhere for a deep psychological clean.

            1. 13.1.1.1.1.1

              Yeah, but who is gonna do that?

              The only people with the constitutional power and authority to do it have surrendered any vestige of spine and principle they may have once possessed, and are now mere jellyfish quivering in fear of being on the wrong end of a mean tweet.

              2. 13.1.1.1.2.1.2

                please don't do the fat phobia thing. Lots of reasons why some people gain weight, including chronic stress. When you make it a reductionist body fat = diet thing, it opens the door for blaming and shaming fat people.

              3. 13.1.1.1.2.1.3

                Now I know why my golf clubs have mouldered unused in the garage for 20+ years. As a game, it's quite a challenge to hit the ball straight and long, plus all that finesse stuff around the green. But the sort of people who play it make you want to run into the carpark screaming. Greg Turner in 2000 (tongue in cheek) blamed professional golfers for the election of George W. He said professional golfers are all rich, right-wing and live in Florida…

                1. 13.1.1.1.2.1.3.1

                  I once worked for company whose main business was making golf club shafts. When I was interviewing for the job, they asked if I played golf. I told 'em as far as I was concerned, golf was the only sport stupider than tennis.

                  It might have been just as well they had already got a back-channel informal reference from someone at the tennis company I had previously worked at.

            1. 13.1.1.1.3.1

              Assume the position and pucker up, so as to be able to kiss one's ass goodbye at short notice.

              If one is not in possession of a survivalist bunker in a remote location, that is.

        2. 13.1.1.2

          He can't do too much more damage than he's already done!!! However, I've said that before about Trump and the one thing he does deliver on is chaos ;-(

      2. 13.1.2

        Wonder if he'll step down, Pence becomes president for a short time pardons Trump.

        Worryingly I suspect Bidens far more Hawkish than Trump so we will see an escalation in US military involvement off shore.

        1. 13.1.2.1

          Well, yes, if he loses, Twitterfinger J. Putinpussy's rational course would be to negotiate a pardon from Pence and resign.

          But rationality doesn't seem to enter the decision-making. Not sure there would be enough in it for Pence. He may look back at Ford, and decide that issuing a pardon would be too much of a skidmark on his 2024 prospects. Being 46 for a few weeks might not be enough reward for that trade-off.

        2. 13.1.2.2

          I am more afraid of pence than of trump..two reasons:..he has 'known' since he was a child that one day he would be president…that God would help him get there ..that and the fact that he is an 'end-times/second coming believer…now..I dunno about you ..but that mix scares me…pence is a table-leg chewing religious freak…and he may see engineering the end times as his god-given/directed destiny…and that's a bit of a worry….and really..the one good thing you can say about the orange carbunkle..is that he hasn't invaded anyone…unlike..say..obama..?

          1. 13.1.2.2.1

            Trump may not have militarily invaded another country but he sure as hell has set about devastating some, along with attempting to engineer attacks on US forces so he can retaliate with the world's most expensive and extensive ever military. So far, only Bolivia has handed him is rear end but ironically, he appears ready to use the same coup strategies on his own country. How will the Organisation of American States will react if/when he declares he has won the Presidency on the basis of early votes?

      1. 13.2.1

        As far as I know, in the US the idea that a post-election outgoing government acts just in a caretaker capacity is just a norm. I'm not aware of anything in the constitution or statute law that codifies this. If there is anything stronger than just a norm, please rectify my ignorance by linking to the actual statute or section in the constitution.

        If it is just a norm, hasn't the mandarin manutang done enough to convince you that he has no boundaries? Are you not yet convinced that norms and common decency and respect for others simply do not exist in his world, except as weaknesses in others that he can take advantage of?

    1. 16.1

      Any progressive government in South America knows how it goes down: allegations of 'irregularities' from the state department, a hastily-organised press conference in which veiled threats are murmured, furious editorials in the Wall Street Journal, the inevitable protests followed by an intervention from the 'proper authorities' to restore order.

  18. 18

    Will it be a rightwing America, or, will it be a right of right wing America. One thing for sure, it will not be a leftwing America. For the rest of the World it will be just the same, the American military regime murdering some poor countries civilians in order to steal the natural wealth.

    1. 18.1

      The merely disgusting is always better than outright obscenity. And who knows, maybe Biden's past record is no guide to his future actions. Maybe he's improving with age, or something. Hang on to that hope – however slim.

  19. 19

    I found this interesting and even-handed report at the state of US society last night. It appears a well-researched and nuanced view. I've C&P'ed the into:

    Political polls and years of knife-edge elections have convinced many that our country has become a 50:50 society, divided into two opposing political tribes and trapped in a spiral of conflict and division. Our research uncovered a different story, one that probes underneath the issues that polarize Americans, and finds seven groups that are defined by their core beliefs, rather than by their political opinions, race, class or gender.

    In talking to everyday Americans, we have found a large segment of the population whose voices are rarely heard above the shouts of the partisan tribes.

    These are people who believe that Americans have more in common than that which divides them. While they differ on important issues, they feel exhausted by the division in the United States. They believe that compromise is necessary in politics, as in other parts of life, and want to see the country come together and solve its problems. In the era of social media and partisan news outlets, America’s differences have become dangerously tribal, fueled by a culture of outrage and taking offense. For the combatants, the other side can no longer be tolerated, and no price is too high to defeat them. These tensions are poisoning personal relationships, consuming our politics and putting our democracy in peril. Once a country has become tribalized, debates about contested issues from immigration and trade to economic management, climate change and national security, become shaped by larger tribal identities. Policy debate gives way to tribal conflicts. Polarization and tribalism are self-reinforcing and will likely continue to accelerate.

    The work of rebuilding our fragmented society needs to start now. It extends from re-connecting people across the lines of division in local communities all the way to building a renewed sense of national identity: a bigger story of us. Our polarization is not simple, but nor is it insoluble

    We identified groups of people based not on demographic differences but rather on their core beliefs, sense of group belonging, and political behaviors. This approach allowed us to detect groups based on commonalities in aspects of their psychology, beliefs and behavior. Overall, the segmentation analysis identified seven distinct segments in the American population. Each is characterized by certain general traits and tendencies as revealed in response to a fixed set of survey questions:

    – Progressive Activists: highly engaged, secular, cosmopolitan, angry.

    – Traditional Liberals: open to compromise, rational, cautious.

    – Passive Liberals: unhappy, insecure, distrustful, disillusioned.

    – Politically Disengaged: distrustful, detached, patriotic, conspiratorial.

    – Moderates: engaged, civic-minded, middle-of-the-road, pessimistic.

    – Traditional Conservatives: religious, patriotic, moralistic.

    – Devoted Conservatives: highly engaged, uncompromising, patriotic.

    This very much aligns with my own experience of US society, that it's a highly diverse, complex mix of people, yet from the outside it's too easy to only hear the noisy voices on the extremes. Yet according to the number the author puts up, some 67% of people belong to a value group that is largely ignored in the media or online discourse, whose views and values are routinely scorned and discounted, to the point where they're increasingly retreating into a form of exhaustion.

    For the large part many of them must wish this whole damned circus would just fuck off and leave some adults to take charge again. And how they vote will be crucial to which way this plays. My bet is on Biden, but it could well be too close for comfort, because I don't think the polls are really capturing the full range of people's intentions.

    1. 19.1

      – Progressive Activists: highly engaged, secular, cosmopolitan, angry.

      – Traditional Liberals: open to compromise, rational, cautious.

      – Passive Liberals: unhappy, insecure, distrustful, disillusioned.

      – Politically Disengaged: distrustful, detached, patriotic, conspiratorial.

      – Moderates: engaged, civic-minded, middle-of-the-road, pessimistic.

      – Traditional Conservatives: religious, patriotic, moralistic.

      – Devoted Conservatives: highly engaged, uncompromising, patriotic.

      One of the more interesting collections of random adjectives I've seen in a while.

  20. 20

    Aljezeera (if you can get it) is giving non-stop coverage, interviews, stats etc and is very helpful if anybody is interested.

  21. 21

    Interesting the surge in younger voters:

    A poll released Monday by Harvard University's Institute of Politics surveyed 18- to 29-year-olds and found that 63% said they would "definitely" vote in the election, which is the highest proportion of respondents in the 20 years that the poll of young voters has been conducted. It is also far higher than in 2016, when the Harvard Youth Poll found that 47% of respondents said they would "definitely" vote in that year's election.

    And analyses of the early voting electorate similarly suggest that younger voters are set to make up a larger share than they did in 2016 or 2018.

    More than 6 million voters under 30 have already cast early ballots, according to the Democratic data firm TargetSmart, compared with roughly 2 million early votes at the same time in 2016. And, according to TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier, the number of early voters under 30 who are voting for the first time in their life is more than double the number of first-time voters at this point in the 2016 election.

    https://www.npr.org/2020/10/29/928641949/within-the-early-voting-boom-evidence-of-youth-turnout-surging

  25. 25

    A little too much like 2016. Trump winning Florida. And competitive in NC and Georgia.

    If he takes those – it looks like its either Arizona/Nevada/2nd district or Pennsylvania for Biden to win.

    Fox however says GOP operatives think they will do well in Minnesota, which mixes that up. But Biden is leading and on the way to being favourite in NC. And is competitive in Ohio. Relaxes.

    1. 25.1

      Yeah this is way closer than I thought it would be. I mean this should be a slam dunk. Who would vote for Trump after all that has happened in the past 4 years?

      1. 25.1.1

        Who would vote for Trump after all that has happened in the past 4 years?

        Dumb bunny Americans that's who. They make up on average 50% of their population on a good day. On a bad day it goes higher. When the pandemic hits a death toll of 2 million some of them might be capable of figuring out the reason why.

      2. 25.1.2

        Orange45 is coming in big time on betting markets from a long shot to evens in the last hour apparently.

        They got 2016 correct so gridlock, lawyers, twitter meltdowns here we come.

      3. 25.1.3

        Like Hitler was so good at…he is giving people who feel ostracised by society..their voice….trump does it with the racist/ignorant/economically ignored of america ..he voices all their prejudices for them…and like south islanders 'hate' aucklanders…they also hate metropolitan america…this was why I called trump last time…reading all that..and of course hitler had the German people..beaten/bruised by the versailles treat forced on them at the end of ww2..+ a massive social program..

      4. 25.1.4

        Who would vote for Trump after all that has happened in the past 4 years?

        Americans. I heard a teacher interviewed post-voting who had voted for Trump. She said she was afraid for her country. Why was she fearful? Socialism.

        1. 25.1.4.1

          I heard that too. Unbelievable coming from a teacher who are supposed to represent the brighter bulbs in society. Its an indication what an abysmally poor over-all set of educational standards exist in the US.

          Like my father said back in the 60s and 70s… they are deliberately dumbing down the American population. And now we are seeing the end result.

    2. 25.2

      Biden is doing OK in Arizona. So the Arizona, Nevada, 2nd district path is still open. So he can win without waiting for the Pennsylvania votes – providing he wins back Michigan and Wisconsin and holds Minnesota.

      So GOP lawyers are fighting hard in Clark county Nevada.

      My pick – Dems pick up 4 and lose 1 in the Senate.

      1. 25.2.1

        Nope, it looks a pick up of 2 and a loss of one and a toss up.

        That would be Collins vs Gideon in Maine. If Collins holds, it's 50-50. If Gideon wins its R 49 D 48 and two left of centre Independents.

        There will be a run off in Georgia, but that will end up with GOP.

        1. 25.2.1.1

          With Biden coming back in Michigan, Peters might win that Senate race – it and the Maine vote (Gideon picks up preferentials from Savage vs Collins). Both close.

      2. 25.2.2

        That was some ride overnight (538 and NYT) as Biden pulled ahead to take the lead in Wisconsin and then Michigan. And now looks likely to take both.

        It tightened a little in Arizona and Nevada and the risk now is there. But Biden is favoured. But with Nebraska's 2nd district this gives him an alternative to winning in Philadeplphia (vital as Trump was always going to lawyer up to prevent vote completion – Biden is a slight favourite to win if and once all votes are counted).

        It's possible Biden can take Georgia (Fulton County vote count obstructed by the water pipe) and not need Arizona and Nevada or Pennsylvania.

        North Carolina is probable for Trump.

    1. 27.1

      For what it's worth, I've just had a look at county by county results in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. In these three states, there's metric buttloads of votes still to be counted in strongly Dem cities, but the Repug stronghold counts appear mostly complete. For instance, there's still around half a million votes to be counted in Philadelphia County alone, not to mention the Dem leaning surrounding suburb counties. But jeez, it sure would be helpful to my sphincter muscles and liquor cabinet to not have quite so much to make up.

    1. 29.1

      On a positive note, 19 out of 22 of the DSA DSA-endorsed candidates were elected.

      And Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez absolutely thundered her way to victory in New York after the Republicans spent millions of $$$ on a doomed campaign to topple her.

  30. 30

    Mauree Turner got on the Oklahoma legislature, and must get the 2020 Woke Bingo prize as the first gay, black, female, under 30, Muslim to do so.

    1. 31.1

      Most of the votes that might affect the result that are still to be counted appear to be in Philadelphia and its close-in suburb counties, Detroit and close in counties, and Milwaukee.

      So Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are still strongly in play, despite Biden currently being quite a way behind at the moment in those states.

    2. 31.2

      It looks like a Trump win to me. Been watching the NYT site mainly, with 538 as back-up. NYT has a cool feature: poise the cursor over each state on the map, you get the details come up in a small window automatically.

      Just eye-balling those states not yet decided, I couldn't find numbers for Biden to win. Most look like they will fall to Trump…

  34. 34

    Leaving aside Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16) and Pennsylvania (20) which are still in play, everything else looks reasonably settled – which would make it Biden 244, Trump 248. The ultimate winner therefore has to take any two of these three states to reach 270. However, Trump currently leads in all three – Wisconsin by 4%, Michigan by 8%, Pennsylvania by 14%. If mail-ins or late-counting districts start to change this in favour of Biden over the next day, expect fun and games.

    1. 35.1

      Are there hanging chads?? Are partisan people allowed to barge in where they wish? Sounds like the wild west to me.

    1. 38.1

      On what grounds?

      Just on votes counted this year compared to 2016, it appears Atlanta and surrounding suburbs are more or less fully counted. I don't see any areas that appear to have a lot fewer votes counted compared to 2016, where a 120,000 vote deficit might be made up.

  40. 40

    Mitch McConnel and Linsday Graham re-elected despite all the damage they have wrought. The former probably a bigger psychopath than Trump. Dems taking control of the Senate is the more important outcome.

    2. 40.2

      Very disappointing to see.

      I’m also stunned to see that Trump has seemed to increase his vote share in the counties most affected by COVID.

      It shouldn’t be this close.

  43. 43

    Biden now reported as 0.5% ahead in Wisconsin according to Decision HQ (change from Trump +4% a few hours ago). Also they have Trump's lead in Michigan down to 4% from 8% over the same period. Pennsylvania still Trump + 12%

    1. 44.1

      No, because as he, Donald, said he's already won. No need to count any more, or confirm; just declare him the winner.

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