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- Date published:
9:42 am, April 17th, 2026 - 34 comments
Categories: chris bishop, Christopher Luxon, election 2026, national, nicola willis, same old national -
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National is now leaking like a sieve. Either a coup against Christopher Luxon is under way or a group of disgruntled MPs are busily attempting to destabilise Luxon’s leadership.
Either way this is not good for National.
From Thomas Coughlan at the Herald:
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is expected to face the most difficult two weeks of his leadership when Parliament returns next week, sources within the National Party say.
It comes as the Herald can reveal a senior MP tried to present Luxon with evidence of what sources said was flagging caucus support for the National leader before Easter.
It is now likely that those who believe Luxon should leave his position will make their move in the next fortnight, the Herald understands.
The degree of leaking is extraordinary with different camps trying to control the narrative by counter leaking against each other.
Again from the Herald:
In the last week of the sitting block, [Senior National Whip Stuart] Smith tried to contact Luxon about ructions in the caucus, three sources told the Herald. The ructions had reached a point at which Smith, as whip, was obliged to notify Luxon. It is not clear whether Luxon retained the confidence of caucus at this point.
Luxon could not be contacted by Smith, sources said. For some time, the whip could not arrange any time to speak with his leader – a rare and extraordinary state of affairs, particularly when Parliament was sitting and both men were working in the same precinct.
This meant Smith could not relay the information to Luxon, which may have triggered the process for his potential departure as leader, sources said.
Smith did get in touch with National Deputy Leader Nicola Willis, who is believed to still be in Luxon’s camp and does not favour change.
A Luxon ally believed Smith contacting Willis was as good as being able to contact the Prime Minister himself.
Another source believed that had Smith reached Luxon it would have likely resulted in a formal caucus meeting, which could have led to a change.
Senior National MPs are trying to hose down the speculation. Of course they would be doing this. But I expect that the reality of a quarter of National’s caucus losing their jobs is causing a great deal of panic.
Destabilising the party in election year and just before the Budget is to be delivered is either extremely evil or desperate or both.
Stay tuned …
they should definitely keep Luxon 😈
I wouldn't trust what Thomas Coughlan has to say, especially about the National Party.
[deleted]
The aim is to have Luxon fend off yet another "leadership challenge" in an effort to make him appear stronger.
Everyone will play their part on stage.
[the deleted bit is potentially defammatory. I’ve removed it for now and asked for opinions in the back end about whether it’s ok to publish. You’re back in prem-mod – weka]
+100….Coughlan is National Party through and through.
mod note.
Luxon needs to hold his ground.
Filling up granny with anything but the shitshow this coalition has levied on NZ such as the many thousands of talented kiwis forced offshore.
Muldoon looks benevolent up against this mob.
Such as minister for sealord having a pop at councillors rather than facing some questions.
Plenty of that going on with agitating local council reps stoking the culture war fires as all part of the game plan.
I hope luxon stays on as leader, but I encourage periodic speculation about him being rolled
This is one area where Luxon has not met the mark.
Forget his non-answer interviews and his lack of the common touch. His inability to communicate a vision for Aotearoa beyond 'the books'.
Luxon, the manager, was bought in to unite a severely divided National caucus. To a large extent he has succeeded and got them the power they crave. Ironically the coalition agreement could be the undoing.
NZ 1st are eating National's lunch. ACT are, by far, the most successful party in decades with what they have made manifest.
The leaking is an ominous sign.
I could cope with Willis as PM for remainder of this term.
Out of the current Cabinet she speaks in actual sentences and is competent in local and international media.
Odds on currently the government will not change in 2026, so as citizens (rather than as Labour member who is of course believes and campaigns that the government must change), we need the most competent person to take us through an almighty 1974-like energy shock. Which is coming in hard.
New Zealand can't have weakness in our leader in this crisis.
Agree. Willis seems to be one of the few people on the right in parliament who understands the seriousness of the situation.
Better outcome for NZ in this crisis would be Nat keep Luxon and lose the election. I'd have more faith in that being true if the Greens were back on track though. Labour have the experience in crisis management. The Greens should be leading on the sustainability and resiliency and climate narratives and positioning the cost of living crisis within that. I really hope they're preparing to roll out some good policy soon.
Yes if the Greens start trending into 8-9% I will be switching party vote this time.
Ranking Scott Willis as an energy spokesperson was not a good idea in an energy crisis and I’d like to see him back.
I can't make sense of the initial GP ranking this year (as in, what are they thinking). Hoping the members rearrange it sufficiently.
As a GP member I also found it very puzzling. Did my bit to rearrange things.
Greens are the only party that has been putting forward real policy suggestions for addressing the fuel crisis. How much more back on track is needed?
Yes – to a point. Willis's "actual sentences" are on one level reassuring in that she isn't just regurgitating slogans as Luxon does. And she does sound coherent on the fuel crisis.
But that's not enough, actual sentences can still be wildly wrong. My impression of Willis as finance minister is that she is in essence an empty vessel into which right-wing think tanks have effectively poured their poison. As a result, she now seems to think that the pinnacle of 'fiscal responsibility' will be when her government runs surpluses all the time, not just when the economy is overheated and too much money is chasing too few real resources (people/labour, skills, physical goods), but all the time.
Willis really Ad and Weka, she hopless, the economy will be entering death spiral territory with the fuel prices where they are another month and God help us all, and that woman's response will be austerity and crumbs for the middle class,
I'm hoping luxons panics into a snap election to try keep his spot, and we get chippy on the job.
We're not in a position to be choosers though are we?
Chippy really needs to step up to the plate and start leading from the front, he sounds like a whinging school kid these days, complaining about National. We all want to know what Labour are going to do to get us out of this mess Luxon and Willis have got us into.
All opposition parties will be focused on policy and preparing for the election campaign at this time. Expect major policy in May around the time of the Budget.
It will be caucus that's driving that. The point was that if NACTF get in again, do we want someone leading that that has his head in the sand (Luxon), or someone who at least understands this is a serious crisis (Willis)? I want Luxon to remain leader so they tank at the election, but Willis would better for the country if they win again.
And that voice – it raaaaasps!
It’s not quite so bad when following the sign language and it makes almost as much sense.
I'd go Stanford or bishop if I could ad.
And rakuraku I get the feeling your just a petty troll which is OK but atleast get funny like pucky was if you're going to continue
Great quote from Luxon (stand-up, just now):
"I have the numbers".
Something no previous PM has had to say this century (as PM, not as leader of the opposition). Because nobody was ever counting heads in caucus for Key or Ardern et al. There was no point.
If you're counting, it's already too late. Ask Jim Bolger.
+100 good memory there Ob
Luxon, when I asked about having the numbers:
‘What I would say to you, I count to one and then I stop counting. This has served me well as CEO.’
Yes observer the caucus is always 100% behind the pm publicly and the leader is never standing down until the deed is done.
I don't know if there will be a leadership spill. That might be considered too messy, and cause more harm than good. Probably the best case scenario would be for Luxon to resign. But, it doesn't look like he is in the mood to do that.
His stubborn selfishness has denied National the window of opportunity to present a change as a positive move.
If he had stepped down late last year or in the New Year …
"I will pass on the leadership baton … take up new challenges … spend more time with family …"
i.e. the usual resignation waffle but allowing a clean break.
Too late to spin it now as "jumps not pushed".
Can't say I disagree. I don't know what it is about political leaders (not just Luxon) who refuse to do the right thing for the party they lead.
Quite an interesting video by Michael Laws who points out that because National only has five list MPs, then they will all be toast if the polling stays as it is. One of those is Nicola Willis.
I prefer Marc Daalder:
https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/04/17/its-now-or-never-as-luxon-faces-brewing-backbencher-spill/
It's not so much a list MP problem that National has, it's a backbench plonker problem. It's those backbench plonkers that are going to take Nicola's, Goldie's and Gerry's seats. So it's not the backbench that's going to lead this, it'll be coming from parts of the front. Messy.
I’ve learned something vital about Chris Luxon, former-PM-elect, which is that he can hold his breath no longer than 6 minutes.
https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/04/17/its-now-or-never-as-luxon-faces-brewing-backbencher-spill/
Marc Daalder is one of the better political journos. That is an informative (and amusing) piece.
"Luxon fronted a prearranged media stand-up on Friday afternoon, arriving 20 minutes late and not making the announcement he was slated to, but instead rebutting the allegations in short, sharp replies. …
If Luxon wanted to project confidence, it’s hard to imagine a less convincing performance."
(my italics … and this is why he can't continue in the job. Not setting the agenda with your own announcements is the end for any leader)