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7:58 pm, September 6th, 2025 - 22 comments
Categories: Maori Issues, maori party, Maori seats -
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With a very small turnout and half of the votes counted it appears that Orini Kaipara will win the Tamaki Makaurau by election.
Update: Peeni Henare has conceded.
The one comment I have is that the Maori Party have managed to overturn the Epsom seat overhang advantage that the right enjoyed with steroids. Kia kaha.
Just ouch
Don't discount the timing. We have just seen a week of joyful celebration over a new, young, fresh faced Maori Queen. The flow-on effect will be high. Congratulations to the new, young, Maori MP. It takes nothing away from Peeni Henare.
https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/
This loss surely underscores the inability of current Labour Auckland and the huge Henare political whanau to ddfeat even the smallest party and the least-known of candidates.
National polling trend shows Labour up, Te Party Maori down.
Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election – Wikipedia
This was going to be the week that Labour showed it had the momentum that it was ready to lead government-in-waiting.
And nope.
Voters voting strategically. Why have one Māori MP when you could have two? I don't think this outcome says anything about Labour generally.
Are you aware Henare/Labour were also offering a two for one deal?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360757600/tamaki-makaurau-election-candidate-peeni-henare-i-stand-my-record
Evidently, it seems voters didn’t want two Labour party Māori MPs
I'd say that Māori are voting as they did in the general election- for TPM- and see them as a partner for Labour in a centre-left coalition. The result would not affect the present coalition's continuing to govern, so few voted. Weka above is also right.
Two things. One the miniscule turnout was a disgrace and Maori voters need to take a long hard look at themselves. Second, as Advantage notes Labour is complacently ambling towards being a minor party.
She got double what he got:
So I agree with the view that Maori are using collective intel! I expected Henare to win easily. Three quarters of the electorate believing democracy is a waste of time makes me feel less alone!
That's the spirit! In 2021, NZ jumped to 2nd place on the Economist's democracy index.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index#List_by_country
Some academic analysis suggests that recent regressive anti-democractic initiatives by our CoC (govt by the sorted, for the sorted) might push NZ out of medal contention.
Self-confessed loner feels less lonely. Not because democracy in NZ is growing stronger & better but because it appears to be eroding and growing weaker & less effective.
The NZ Herald figure is either wrong (most likely), or indicates that a lot of people have dropped off that roll (unlikely in that amount), or a major number of uncounted or spoiled votes.
Ummm. I see that is on the elections.nz site.
My rough estimate based on the previous general election registration came out at ~21%. The wikipedia entry was estimated at 21.4%. My estimate was based on 43,100 registered.
9,377 / 44,267 * 100 = 21.18%
Oh.
I must adjust my post.
Predictable. The polls seem to have little idea on Maori voting trends, and Maori will not have forgotten last year's Treaty shenanigans.
This is good news for the Left-it needs TPM to sweep the Maori seats next year to (probably) result in additional left-leaning overhang seat(s).
You mean like what happened in 2008?
Of course there was the inevitable …
And to put pressure (along with the Greens) on the leading party of the Centre – Labour.
Why would you elect someone that's already in parliament when you can elect a new member, ?
Maybe labour should have run someone's that isn't already in,
Ha. Maybe it didn't occur to them. You need to be advising them.
By-elections often deliver freakish outcomes (though I'm not saying this was one such), and shouldn't be regarded as reliable pointers to a likely GE result.
I expected TPM to win – because the CoC attacks on the whole idea that Maori have a particular role in some nation-forming 'partnership', has sharpened Maori perceptions of themselves.
Predictably, CoC have accelerated the radicalism they feared.
Exactly AB….but the media tries to portray it as a Labour disaster