The 2020 election was more than just a victory for Labour and more than a crushing defeat for the National Party (New Zealand’s main centre-right political party). This result marks a significant watershed in New Zealand politics which will likely have implications long after this parliamentary term.
Matthew Hooton has tweeted a series of numbers. They add up to good news for the Government.
UPDATE: Curia Polling reckons it’s even better for Labour!
Democracy is a precious thing, and not something that can be taken for granted. Having an electoral system where every vote matters is crucial to creating a decent society. It is time that the UK started seriously debating electoral reform and how to improve its democratic systems.
Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, […]
Oh dear. The Winston Peters led governing coalition has completely collapsed and thank God Simon Bridges is there to pick up the pieces. I warned you this would happen! And look! Over there … the sky is falling. Falling, I tells ya!
The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is out, and it continues to be less than stellar news for the opposition, but also for New Zealand First.
In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.
Newshub recently released the latest poll they commissioned from Reid Research. Let’s dive into some analysis of what this means.
National CRUSH puny parties! Why National no mates?
The special vote count should be out at 2pm tomorrow. The mathematically plausible scenarios are either good, or very good, for the left.
The Standard regular Incognito writes about the unique voice the Greens bring to NZ politics and why a coalition deal with National would be the end of that.
You know that old saying about how generals always prepare to fight the last war? That’s National and their FPP election campaign (hello creepy joggers). There will be a certain poetic justice played out if Labour’s MMP campaign is the winner in the end.
The papers are full of the expected establishment hysteria today, trying to paint the election as a done deal for the Nats (I wonder what Peters will make of that?). Professor Richard Shaw: “Nobody’s won the election yet. The people who won the election are the people who form the government.”
The fact that we could even hope for a Labour Green win is remarkable – was inconceivable just 2 months ago. Labour’s surge has been incredible. Thank you Jacinda Ardern, and thank you all who worked so hard! Now it’s up to MMP…
On current polling the next government could be Labour + Green + NZF. That would annoy a lot of Nats if they have more votes than Labour alone, but that’s how MMP works. English lied about this in the last debate, but apparently has since walked it back.
Labour’s surge under Jacinda Ardern has us all talking about Labour vs National – who’s in front. Exciting stuff, but there is something even more important going on. The mood represented by Labour + Green + the plurality of NZF supporters. The winds of change are blowing.
To what must be intense annoyance from angry right-wing pundits, Metiria Turei’s gamble seems to have paid off for The Greens, an indication (though mind that margin of error) that there could be a real appetite for a Corbyn-style political revolution this election.
Idiot/Savant suggests removing the 5% threshold and introducing preferential voting for electorate seats.
What are the Greens up to then?
A post to illustrate how fixed term parliaments work…off the back of some really woeful reportage.
Thanks to David Clark, to Grant Robertson, to Labour, and to those who supported the bill…
Is anyone else experiencing a bit of political shellshock?
David Cunliffe has just announced that he will seek to continue as leader of the Labour Party and will let the party decide. A contest for the leadership is almost inevitable.
Key is clearly getting nervous about the implosion of his possible electoral partners in 2014. He’s running the “largest party has a moral mandate to govern line” again. It’s destabilising, and it’s rubbish, here’s why…
According to Labour: “Judith Collins has claimed that she ‘consulted’ with political parties but was unable to reach consensus. There was absolutely no consultation.”
I/S at No Right Turn on the strange disappearance of the Electoral Commission recommendations on MMP. Soon it will be too late to have changes in place for 2014…
The Bill to Mondayise holidays seems certain to progress. A nice win for David Clark and for Labour, and an all too rare example of MMP working as it should.
The excellent Andrew Geddis at Pundit has an interesting post up this morning. You should head on over there and check it out. Here are a couple of extracts to get you started…
The first proposal paper from the Electoral Commission on the MMP review is due out soon.
Updated with the early coverage.
Many commentators have interpreted David Shearer’s recent speech as signaling a “move to the right”. I think it’s too early to tell. But if it’s true, I think it’s good news for lefties…
No Right Turn takes Key to task on his perception of a “large majority”.
RNZ’s Insight is hosting a debate on the Electoral System Referendum in Wellington. It’s an excellent panel. If you want to be part of the audience, get along to Te Papa’s Sounding’s Theatre at 6pm next Wednesday, October 26.
The Right hates MMP. The old system, FPP, advantaged the Right by about 1.5% according to this study. In 1978, 1981, and 1993 […]
When asked on Morning Report (MP3 link) today why National was bringing up the issue of MMP now, Key remarked: “[the public] were […]
