Pollwatch: 2020 Pre-election rush
We’ve had three recent pre-election polls. While we wait for results on election day, let’s have a look at where things might be headed.
electorates
Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton poll released 2020-07-30
Poll analysis and modelling results: Is Colmar Brunton “the real rogue?” Who’s likely in and out for National, Labour, and the Greens on this poll result?
Pollwatch: Reid Research poll completed 2020-07-24
Labour has hit stratospheric highs in the new Reid Research poll at 60.9%, and still have a strong partner in the Greens at 5.7%. Who’s in and out on these numbers? How has Collins performed?
Pollwatch for Newshub/Reid Research poll, 18th May 2020
The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is a bloodbath for National- but who are the likely victims? Pollwatch is back, this time with a model for electorate winners and losers to add onto the party vote stats.
New electorate boundaries
I missed it, but we got the new electorate boundaries on Friday. Now electorate boundaries simply don’t matter as much as they used to because of MMP. These days mostly the only people who notice them are electorate MPs, political parties that are too close to the 5% list party boundary, and of course sock-puppet parties like Act and their National party hand. Plus of course political blog sites.
Labour’s Māori electorate MPs will not be on the list
In breaking news, Labour’s Māori electorate MPs to stand as electorate candidates only (not on the list).
On Northland
I’ve been getting tired of the fantasy elections that some political commentators seem to enjoy playing. Currently the fantasises is in Northland, with the same old tiresome lines. It is a pity that most of those playing this game don’t ever seem to think about the behaviours of real voters, real candidates, and real parties.