Paul Goldsmith and the bag of flour

Yesterday TV3 on the Nation hosted a debate between the candidates for the Epsom seat. Unbelievably National’s Paul Goldsmith did not show up. Labour’s Michael Wood produced a bag of wholemeal flour and has promised to take this bag to every public event and to put it where Goldsmith should be every time he does not show up. I suspect we are going to see this particular bag of flour a lot …

NRT: Good riddance to John Banks

The government has been stripped of its legislative majority and its policy programme, especially employment relations “reform”, is now in tatters. Now that Banks has going, we are seeing an extensive rewriting of history by the National government. Kind of pathetic really.

Farrar lies again

For the second time in as many weeks, David Farrar has lied to his readers over at kiwiblog.

Communication upgrade needed

David Cunliffe badly needs a new stump speech. On Thursday in Whanganui I heard him depress a large and sympathetic audience for ten minutes with tales of national woe, then promise a positive campaign but give no details. It is good to know that a positive campaign is proposed. Labour has promised an economic upgrade; it also needs a communications upgrade, and besides being positive it must be relevant. That could shift the polls.

Through the looking glass

Banks look very likely to be gone by Monday. But, some journalists are going to bat for John Banks, claiming he hasn’t really done anything wrong with respect to the verdict of guilty for filing a false election funding return.  They are ignoring the facts of the case, and trying to rewrite history. [Update: Banks to resign]

Imperator Fish: Move along please, sir

As a senior member of the New Zealand Police, I would like to respond to allegations that the police were remiss in not prosecuting ACT Party MP the Hon John Banks. There is no police corruption here.  We may have been disgracefully, eye-wateringly incompetent, but we are not dirty. Now please move along, as we wish to put this entire incident behind us as quickly as we can, before too many questions are asked.

Too many hedgehogs

Nate Silver (The Signal and the Noise – the art and science of prediction) uses an old idea to distinguish pundits as hedgehogs or foxes. Originating with Archilochus  through Isaiah Berlin to it can be summed up as “the fox knows many little things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” The test for hedgehogs is “Do your predictions improve when you have more information?” Foxes do – hedgehogs’ don’t. The polls should be a wake-up call for Labour.

Polity: Morgan’s poll, and Morgan’s commentary

Earlier this week the latest Roy Morgan poll came out. It was not good news for the left, with National up well over 50% and the Labour/Greens combination languishing below 40%. It is after the Budget and ended before the Banks stuff. Most is probably the post-budget spike. But the government parties are in a lot worse position than they were before the 2011 election.

Spy law changes & telcos exposé

Vodafone has made public the extent of the use of spying via their systems, done by state agencies in several countries including NZ.  NZ state agencies have revealed the amount of warrants issued prior to the passing of the GCSB and TICS laws late last year.

Why John Banks is now John Key’s biggest headache

The John Banks scenario must have the Government scratching its head wondering what to do.  If he fails to be discharged without conviction a by election will need to be called and can only be avoided if Parliament is reconvened and  a 75% majority agrees that one not be called.  The imagery of this occurring is something I am sure National wants to avoid.

David Farrar badly needs night school

In Kiwiblog this morning, David Farrar appeared to be running a 9th floor pre-pump for John Banks to resign. But I was rather incredulous when I read this “I don’t think the Judge has actually helped the Government by delaying the decision on entering a conviction. Now that it is the Judge’s role to care about the impact on the Government.”. Huh? DPF badly needs to go back to do some adult education. Perhaps to night school?

Digital speed cameras & mass surveillance

The main NZ news outlets are reporting on the new digital speed cameras about to be progressively installed around the country.  They fail to report on the potential of the cameras to be used for mass surveillance.

President Abbott goes viral

Meet Australia’s President of the United States, Prime Minister Tony Abbott, the instigator of a wink-related scandal. He sometimes puts his foot in his mouth and other times chooses to say nothing at all. 665,777 page views.

NRT: The Greens support abortion

Removing our absurd thirty-year-old abortion law, which effectively requires women to declare themselves mentally ill to access a basic medical procedure is great. But it also addresses availability, requiring medical professionals who object to abortion to provide an effective referral, and ensuring that women don’t have to travel hundreds of kilometres for a basic medical procedure.

ACE restored

I see that Labour announced the restoration and increase of the Adult and Community Education (ACE) funding that National slashed back in 2009 and largely killed the programme throughout much of the country. Damn good idea. This used to be a vital step up for people and their families to improve themselves and the subsequent generations as well. I have a personal history and interest in this. More than 4 decades ago the night schools that ACE now run caused a transformation in the opportunities for my extended family.

Dotcom 2 Banks 0

Justice Wyllie’s written decision in the John Banks case makes compelling and damning reading.  Banks has been found guilty because he engineered a situation where a false return was produced and he signed it knowing of this defect. His continued presence in Parliament must be untenable.

John Banks must resign

It is untenable for someone to remain as an MP after being found guilty of electoral fraud. For the integrity of Parliament, John Banks must go: now.

Watch Whanganui

It was standing room only at a packed Grand Hotel this evening for Hamish McDouall’s campaign launch – “the biggest crowd they’d ever had at the Grand.” One local told me of very good canvassing reports as well. Hamish gave a great speech – as the city’s Deputy Mayor there’s no doubt about his commitment to the local community and name recognition will not be a problem. Watch this space.

D Day for John Banks

D Day for John Banks is today. Is he guilty of making a false declaration of his electoral expenses? Will he be convicted? And what are the political repercussions?

Farrar, TV3, coat tails and MMP

David Farrar and then TV3 today get their analysis of Labour’s position on electoral law reform horribly wrong.  Are we going to have to put up with this during election year?

Climate change – ETS or Carbon tax?

The media is trying to suggest that Labour is opposing the Green’s proposed Carbon Tax policy.  This is a gross over dramatisation of the situation.  Labour has in the past supported a Carbon Tax, has a policy formation process which prevents policy creation on the hoof, and prefers an ETS even though it is slightly more complex on the basis that it is slightly more effective in allocating costs and benefits across the board.

NRT: Hoist by her own petard?

One should defend the right of a politician and anyone else to be a complete dork on the net. Even Judith Collins doesn’t need two years in jail for lying to a reporter about another reporter or tweeting bullying abusive rubbish. However many would see Collins’ tweets as “part of the cut and thrust between politicians and journalists”, and they’d be right. But the fact that they would be illegal under her law shows just how awful that law is

Imperator Fish: How to win an election

Scott Yorke at Imperator Fish opines on electorate seats and inter-party relations. On the way through he identifies some strikingly bad net behaviour. Labour MPs past and present who badly need to learn to control themselves on the net just as much as Bomber does.

Polity: Meanwhile, in Bomber-land

Last week’s developments around Internet MANA have caused much conversation on the left in New Zealand. Some of that conversation has been constructive, strategic, and forward-thinking. And then there is Bomber:…. Whose analysis is designed to split the left, not unify it; and the recommendations would help the left lose, not win. Top work.