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6:00 am, January 20th, 2026 - 28 comments
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Open mike is your post.
For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.
The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).
Step up to the mike …
Long may Trump continue with his madcap scheme/obsession to invade Greenland. He is the only one who thinks it is a good idea.
Meanwhile the mid-term polls just keep getting better for the Dems. (Google the Politico site).
On their front page I got this: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/19/poll-americans-jeffrey-epstein-00735886
Doubling public satisfaction with govt performance in 6 months is quite an achievement. Starting from a base equivalent to the margin of error seems a tad less so – but beggars can't be choosers. I wonder how many Deep State agents have managed to evade T's taskforce. Looks like those polled have a hefty consensus in favour of believing the Deep State retain control despite the Trumpian surge.
So less of the sheeple thing happening there than here, huh? A history of political assassinations will do that to you. Encultured.
Canadian PM Mark Carney is really clear in his own words that this is a rupture not a transition.
His visit to China and reversing to give full access to Chinese EV cars is a signal that can give confidence to the EU to make similar moves, and clearly they are.
Beginning to look, again, that Clark and Goff were right to put our primary trade bet with China two decades ago.
Clark and Goff were certainly right to go for improved relations with China. So are Luxon and McClay in negotiating a deal with India. Let us hope that, if Peters tries to kill the deal because he isn't going to be able to claim all the credit, Hipkins will support it and take the line that it is good for New Zealand and not that he might be able to give the finger to National in the way that Trump did to the Ford worker.
Deals with both India and China will surely be much better for us than having a deal only with China which is showing a worrying approach to relations with other countries if it can dominate them.
Could you explain China showing a worrying approach to relations with other countries with respect to trade deals?
Don't say Taiwan or the Cook Islands please.
State banning affecting all Chinese firms buying BHP iron ore or coal for example, They take place immediately and affect cargoes already at sea.
An example is discussed here
https://asiatimes.com/2025/10/chinas-cargo-ban-gives-new-meaning-to-bhps-broken-hill-origin/
Another example is the export of rare earths, where China has dominance. Bans on the export of these materials are banned, and the allowed again when China is attempting to achieve aims other than the sale of these materials.
Japan has been affected by this when the Japanes PM dared to suggest that China should not invade Taiwan.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-rare-earth-campaign-against-japan
Amazing time for you to be in South America, with the massive MERCASUR agreement signed with the EU, the Venezuelan invasion, the massive fires in Patagonia and elsewhere, the emergency overhaul of Peruvian state company Petroperu, and the rapid decline of the Argentine government despite volumes of US subsidy.
Dumb & dumber continue to drive the leading edge of political change:
Too late! The bug infiltrated instantly and has tapped into all his brain circuitry since.
Aha! Chinese & Russian bots simulating MAGA. Perhaps bored US military folk stationed overseas. Maybe both. Maybe extraterrestrials too. Political agents doing subversion as light entertainment could be the galactic ethos…
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/01/18/conservatives-x-twitter-musk-00734196
This whining toddler has nukes.
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Here it is:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/01/trump-letter-to-norway/685676/?gift=otEsSHbRYKNfFYMngVFwePmxksruiCacDVDgMjzLguk&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
Greenlanders need to be proactive in geopolitics now, and that means non-binary. Protestors within are a red herring in the nexus. Governance must shift into regional and global collaborating. Doing this will be those Greenlanders adept at using political power and working control systems.
Knowing this, smart Greenlanders will use this history as a sound basis upon which to proceed. Progress will result from their evolutionary trajectory. I still believe the EU is essential, so I hope those fleas are misapprehensions that can be shed. They got seduced by the neolib mind-set like everyone else, so no blame really. We move on.
OMG the delusional Left never ceases to amaze. Telling Greenland's people to go pick a fight is even worse than telling New Zealanders to go pick a fight with the US.
The 2.1 square kilometres of Greenland has a total population smaller than Nelson. Almost all of them are in three very very small towns.
Their leaders simply appearing on camera with Denmark is the best they can do.
Strawman!
Who, on "the left" is actually saying that, except in your imagination.
Meanwhile, in the real world, Trump is invading Greenland, Venezuela and anywhere he and his deluded supporters target, whether anyone approves, or not!
Note: No word about Epstein files. Which is probably the point of all this chest beating?
No it's a response to Dennis above.
Eventually it happens (for some it takes a little longer).
A small company grows to a certain size and then is owned offshore.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/584499/fletcher-building-to-sell-construction-arm-to-vinci
Yet another argument in favour of capital gains taxes.
Reduces the incentive for "pump and dump" for tax free gains.
Like Fonterra brands. The temptation of short term tax free gains was too much for farmer shareholders.
Rather more a case of a large company that shrank. That part of Fletcher Building has been steadily collapsing for years. It would be only a very small fraction of the business that it used to be.
That is why it took so long, it had it too good as builder for the state.
What do you mean, "too good"?
Don't we want a defacto Ministry of Works in NZ?
A stable company which is properly procured to deliver projects without having to fully absorb external incompetence like the Luxon/Willis government ripping up the infrastructure timeline and the convention centre roofing contractor leaving a blowtorch on during the lunch break.
This is another example of NZ doing it small and not nurturing the talent we have.
The answer was related to the time of sale, as per having returned to being a medium size company (beyond its heyday).
In 2021, the NZRU strengthened the support to the last coach of the Henry-Hansen-Foster 20 year cycle (after losing a series to Ireland). That was when we were a more confident nation than now – the team nearly won the 2023 final (and beat Ireland in the semi-final).
The new beginning has been terminated, rather than talk over a new set up as in 2021. It reflects a different attitude.
The NZRU will look at
1.The two year Schmidt-Cotter option (with a Joseph-Brown succession).
2.The big international coach tent Schmidt-Cotter and Rennie-Joseph now (return to the former succession system).
3.Joseph with Rennie and Jane (before adding Brown for the 2031 cycle).
https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/01/20/tony-brown-says-he-doesnt-have-an-out-from-springboks-role/
The NZRU ditched the All Black coach due to perceived poor performance relativity, apparently. The issue being one of credible leadership. The analogy to politics is instructive: just ask yourself which major party is heading into the next general election with a proven loser as leader. Then estimate the number of kiwi male voters who will be impressed by this. Then predict how much faith they will have in the judgments of that party, and how such (lack of) faith will affect their voting intent.
Obviously any clues punters glean from this exercise will hinge upon the role-model effect. Salience then looms in ratio to the extent a leader matters. Could be that enough people have forgotten Labour's poor performance last term, and are pissed off enough with the govt to change it anyway. Bit of a gamble, eh?
Going from a relevant response to a comment regarding rugby to lashing Labour (again) in 27 words is impressive, even for you, Dennis. You may want consider a career as diversion troll, overseas, based on your proven track record.
Robertson had a better record, than the retained Foster (whose team lost in the final).
(Earlier Henry was retained until he won the World Cup. Hansen till he lost).
It seems that with Te Pati Maori divided, unity is the theme for 2026.
The Maori Queen is known for bringing a fresh, youthful perspective to the role while continuing her father's legacy of kotahitanga (unity). She has emphasized moving from protest to "new economic plans" and diplomacy, alongside supporting the Māori economy.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/te-ao-maori/360933553/year-different-ngai-tahu-runanga-wont-host-waitangi-events-heading-treaty-grounds-instead
The governments raison d'être is dying.
In 2023 before the election the RBG forecast that inflation would fall to 3% by 2025 (this was not based on the coalition being in government).
The National government has been stating it was focused on reducing inflation to get mortgage rates down – it is after the party of the homeowner (paying down a mortgage) and the landlord investor.
It did not exceed the 2023 forecast.
And now it seems 3% will be the norm for 2026, unless the RBNZ gets tough. Luxon will be begging them not to do it.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/360932525/fears-rise-over-how-long-inflation-can-remain-near-3-rbnz-opts-get-tough
PS They made a mess of both government and the economy and failed to deliver to their own voters.
Former counselor to George W. Bush's State Department advocates for a European garrison to deter the US in the Atlantic.
If European countries were to permanently deploy, say, 5,000 soldiers armed with surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles to Greenland, keeping them there with orders to fight invading American soldiers to the last round of ammunition, Trump would not order the paratroops and the Marines to assault that frozen wasteland—too many body bags. If they were willing to put comparable economic sanctions in place—denying American companies access to Europe’s economy, still collectively the world’s third largest—he would back down from those threats as well. Such policies go against the grain of a continent that is, to use the word popularized by the British military historian Michael Howard, debellated, but that’s the world they are in.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/01/how-to-understand-trumps-obsession-with-greenland/685675/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPoIXP8u0UJklvgx41FeNYm0&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
When doing a trade war, unusual weaponry may come into play:
Yeah but the road to hell is paved with good intentions. We've always known that, so Erica is not being very helpful. If T looks like a target, use the damn thing. The old Chinese curse `may you live in interesting times' seems apposite. Random tariff switching is the state of the art in our geopolitical context, so better get used to it. Cling to belief in neoliberalism if you must, but reality may make you look silly doing it.
From the bread and circuses dept.
With the recent ODI series win in India, Aotearoa sits second in the ODI rankings 135 points behind India. A full 1000 points ahead of Australia in 3rd.
Great performances from the whole team, notably a couple of novice bowlers. Still not getting the consistency from the openers.
https://www.newswire.lk/2026/01/18/new-icc-odi-team-rankings/