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6:00 am, October 19th, 2025 - 7 comments
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Open mike is your post.
For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.
The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).
Step up to the mike …
Inflation is at a 15 month high.
The forecasts are that the OCR will go down to 2.0% (now 2.5%) because the underlying economy is weak.
This will impact on the currency – other economies will be holding their rates (also have sticky inflation) because they still have growth.
Thus inflation here will stay in the high band.
There will be some growth impact from lower mortgage costs which will place pressure on capacity.
I'll pick now the OCR will end up back at 2.5% in 2027.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/money/360859044/inflation-expected-hit-15-month-high-after-september-rise
IMF picks 1% growth in Europe, 2% in the USA and 3% worldwide.
It notes
1.US importers and retailers have yet to pass on the cost of US tariffs.
2.Other nations have not changed their trade arrangements
3.That investment in data centres and computing power has held up growth
(They note the unknown an AI bubble burst).
https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/360855517/imf-more-upbeat-about-us-growth-just-months-ago-outlook-dimmer-last-year
Lynn I know you do great work and this site is your baby but it'd frustra6as fuck that I can't comment In desktop due to being phone centric and can't read most posts in mobile, the collins post has me pissing blood by the way corrupt old hag she is fuck ING fuck
Smells like regime change, quacks like regime change….
/
Since late August, the U.S. military has carried out a steady and significant buildup of forces in the Caribbean, with about 10,000 troops at sea and on shore.
It is the largest deployment of U.S. forces in the region in decades and intended to bolster what the Trump administration says is a counterdrug and counterterrorism mission
[…]
But officials have privately made clear that the main goal of the troop increase — which Mr. Trump said this week could also include covert C.I.A. operations — is to drive Venezuela’s authoritarian leader, Nicolás Maduro, from power.
About half of the U.S. force is aboard eight Navy warships, including about 2,200 Marines equipped with fighter jets. The other, slightly larger half of the force is mostly at former U.S. bases, now civilian airports, in Puerto Rico, and includes Marine Corps F-35 fighter jets, Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drones and a variety of other surveillance planes and support personnel.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/us/politics/trump-caribbean-venezuela-us-military-maps.html
As President Javier Milei of Argentina faced a deepening economic crisis, President Trump rushed to the rescue of his political ally with a generous $20 billion bailout.
Then came the fine print.
To secure help from the United States, Mr. Trump made clear on Tuesday, Mr. Milei’s embattled political party would have to first pull off a victory in what are emerging as momentous and challenging legislative elections this month.
“If he doesn’t win, we’re gone,” Mr. Trump said as he welcomed Mr. Milei, who he has called his “favorite president,” to the White House. “If he loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina.”
In Argentina, those comments were taken by many as a clear attempt by Mr. Trump to put his thumb on a sovereign country’s electoral process.
The fallout was swift. The peso tumbled as investors went on a panicked selling spree of Argentina’s currency. Mr. Milei’s political opponents railed against what they called American extortion, urging voters to reject his party at the polls. And Mr. Milei’s government rushed to try to assure Argentines that Mr. Trump wouldn’t abandon the nation based on Mr. Milei’s political fortunes.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/world/americas/argentina-trump-javier-milei.html
archivedotli
The USA, eh?
Had to "squeeze the Venezuelan economy until it bleeds" to ensure a Socialist elected Government (Chavez), couldn't succeed.
But. Spends billions to prop up a regressive right wing Government in Argentina.
Deja vu.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Condor
“anyone suspected of being a communist sympathizer could become regarded as a terrorist by Pinochet’s government and targeted by Operation Condor”.
They need rate capping to hold down interest rates
Given the pressure to fund water this will cause councils a lot of stress
The Upper Hutt council front loaded rates increases (rather than load up debt) so might be better placed than those than those that placated voters instead. To the extent they can use the new capacity to borrow to finance water (and manage their "earthquake" liability).
https://www.1news.co.nz/2025/10/19/minister-wont-say-how-much-cheaper-power-will-be-under-reforms/
A stockpile of coal.
The plan to build a facility to import LNG which will be real expensive.
Power companies can get cheaper gas, either by getting gas supply off Methanex or local manufacture (conversion to gas).
Government supply of capital for investment?
The power companies have money they pay out in dividends now, I guess that means government will use its (or some of its) dividends to supply the capital
A hole in the government books dear Liza – a hole.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2025/10/19/minister-wont-say-how-much-cheaper-power-will-be-under-reforms/