Open Mike 15/09/25

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75 comments on “Open Mike 15/09/25”

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    1. 2.1

      Tut tut wags, you know they're not bad people, it's just that they really, really love freedom of speech, right? I'm sure this fine gentleman was probably thinking – "what offensive and untrue thing can I say today about the respected Ms Davies that might test 'the left's' commitment to freedom of speech?"

      Joking aside, I think it's actually better for everyone to have this crap out in the open so that we can judge the character of the person saying it, rather than have it muttered in the darkness. Getting so offended that we try to stop similar things ever being said, is a mistake.

        1. 2.1.1.1

          comment deleted, as per the site Policy,

          • Directly or indirectly advocating violence in any shape or form (including ‘jest’ and advocating self-harm) to individuals or groups is simply not allowed. Moderators will have a no-tolerance humourless response as the only possible response. If you want to talk about political conflicts around the world, then do so being mindful of this proscription.

          https://thestandard.org.nz/policy/

    2. 3.2

      Shoring up the Auckland vote.

      As Gareth Hughes just said on Radio NZ, we build these massive expensive white elephant stadiums that nearly always stand empty (Christchurch-almost $700 million) then we have to spend even more money to attract events that take place in them.

    3. 3.3

      How on earth do you think we got to host the Rugby World Cup 2010, or co-host the Rugby Womens World Cup in 2022, or any of the America's Cup, or the Sail GP races, or any other major international sporting fixture, or even the 1990 Commonwealth Games?

      Do you think the private sector is going to pay for it?

      The government is simply reinstating a fund that every other state in Australia already has, and they are our core competitors.

      Get a grip.

      1. 3.3.1

        It's a result of this.

        https://thespinoff.co.nz/the-bulletin/28-08-2025/brown-and-luxon-clash-over-bed-levy-as-major-events-slip-from-aucklands-grasp

        This after they cut government funding for Matariki events. And the choice not to provide any money for Auckland to host the return of the Americas Cup.

        Why?

        Risible growth in the local economy and with an election year coming up.

        The underlying factor is appropriate domestic incomes and spending policy, at the personal and government level.

        We need a working economy.

        In the meantime they could restore money they cut in food bank funding.

        1. 3.3.1.1

          There's no doubt they've made a mistake and are trying to fix it. Tourism as sporting event is one of the best ways to accelerate this economy as it has been in the past.

          Functioning food banks would be great but they aren't the answer for more and better jobs.

    1. 4.1

      hard to take someone seriously who starts off with this,

      I guarantee that not one person, of the 201 leaving NZ today, is thinking of coming back. They’re looking back over their shoulder, at their families waving the goodbye, and thinking:

      Likewise her mates,

      “New Zealand’s broken. You’re dumb to stay.”

      Worse,

      New Zealand has always made a promise to its people. Something along the lines of, look, mate, we’ll give you a fair shot at it. You’ll never get the sex appeal of Italy or the history of Britain or the riches of Dubai. But you’ll get a good crack at a comfortable life.

      Except now you don’t. Now it feels like you have to leave to do that. It’s fundamentally unfair. (As unfair as the stories of dual income families now visiting food banks for the first time. Or the reality being that you won’t buy a house here unless you have rich parents).

      And what an awful reason to be leaving the country. Not in pursuit of adventure. But because you can’t get a fair shot at normal life.

      Well guess what Verity, NZ has had many, many people in that situation for decades. The difference now is it's reached your class.

      The numbers of people leaving is an issue, as are the seriously sociopolitical issues facing NZ. Hard to see how it's any better overseas in the medium and long term. I feel incredibly fortunate to live in NZ and I'm part of the underclass. I'd be much worse off in the US and UK and probably even Australia.

      The people that can leave but choose to stay will continue to try and make things right here, and if Verity wants to come home she can.

      1. 4.1.1

        A failing economy will impact on all those in business.

        From tradies off to Oz, or those still here struggling with costs and incomes like employed workers are.

        "Budget" fixated Ministers of Finance are novices.

        1. 4.1.1.1

          time people started to organise politically then, or even just at the community level. For every low income person who is really struggling, I see middle class people who are having their disposable income constrained. Leaving the country won't save us collectively, it just defers the crisis for a while. It's global crisis that NZ is in.

          1. 4.1.1.1.1

            It's primarily a New Zealand crisis.

            There's no shortage of political organisation. Very is pointing to a crisis driven by economic paralysis not to political paralysis.

            Our nearest medium economies Australia and Indonesia are doing just fine.

            1. 4.1.1.1.1.1

              what's the political organising around the housing crisis?

              how would economic growth solve the housing crisis?

              can wages ever catch up to housing costs?

              what about benefit rates?

                  1. 4.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1

                    Yep. Remember when it was 42 days, then dear Paula slashed it to 28 days, since it was a bit tricky even for her to introduce sanctions on the sick and disabled?

              2. 4.1.1.1.1.1.2

                If you are not aware of the groups organising around housing, time you acquainted yourself.

                If there were good NZ businesses to invest in and the ability invest in them if they weren't listed, there would be lower investment in rental housing. If your investments are mostly in Kiwisaver, your provider will be able to list for you exactly where your money is going.

                Housing is more affordable now than it has been in years – check out the value loss in Wellington of over 30% in 2 years.

                1. 4.1.1.1.1.1.2.1

                  Housing is more affordable now than it has been in years

                  lol. You'd make a good politician Ad.

                  Affordability of housing in NZ is dependent on the relationship between income and house prices.

                  1. 4.1.1.1.1.1.2.1.1

                    Not that simple.

                    Sure, people are priced out from either owning or renting in some/many areas by lack of income.

                    But for ownership, there is the variable of mortgage rates.

                    Thus the 2020-2021 rise and 2021-2025 decline in house prices.

                    And rent cost rises whenever there is a shortage of supply then falls back when there is not.

                    1. 4.1.1.1.1.1.2.1.1.1

                      Yes, but I was offering a definition of affordability because Ad’s comment implied it was about cost. It’s not, it’s the relationship between income and cost.

                      someone with a high paying job is going to ride out this variations better than someone on a low income. Someone in a low income with a mortgage free house is going to be ok too assuming they have enough income for rates, maintenance etc.

              3. 4.1.1.1.1.1.3

                We need to get rid of unearned income like interest and ground rent which add to production costs without actually producing anything. Perhaps we should emulate China, where the banking system is owned by the state. This allows the state to ensure that credit is used for productive purposes only, instead of merely being used to push up asset values.China is one of the more successful economies these days and I feel that its progressive monetary policies are one of the reasons for its success.

                Too much money splashing around in the economy , and being wrongly used, is one of the reasons we have so much inequality: Those with access to bank credit can enrich themselves b y investing, unproductively, in housing and company stock.

                State ownership of all NZ land would also help.

                1. 4.1.1.1.1.1.3.1

                  Perhaps we should emulate China, where the banking system is owned by the state. This allows the state to ensure that credit is used for productive purposes only, instead of merely being used to push up asset values.

                  how would that work? Some examples?

                  1. 4.1.1.1.1.1.3.2.1

                    [how would that work? Some examples?]

                    I'm only guessing of course, but banks would be prevented from creating money – probably by legislation which provided penalties for doing so – and credit could then be created by RBNZ, or by some other government agency set up for that purpose, and lent to the government and to the private trading banks. All such credit would of course. be earmarked for productive purposes only.

                    Housing loans would probably made by a separate institution, similar to the State Advances Corporation of yesteryear. If the trading banks wished to advance money for non productive purposes such as housing, it could do so only with money borrowed for fixed terms from the general public. The government would also borrow monies on fixed deposit from the general public.

                    All of this of course is just idle speculation on my part.

                    1. 4.1.1.1.1.1.3.2.1.1

                      The initial clean-up was based on the three red lines rule for the property companies.

                      The rule regulated the leverage taken on by developers, limiting their borrowing based on the following metrics: debt-to-cash, debt-to-equity, and debt-to-assets.

                      Companies had been borrowing against the rising value of their properties. Evergrande went beyond even that.

                      "The banking system in China is still almost exclusively state-run," says Dexter Roberts, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. "So if Beijing tells those banks to find a way to roll over the debt, then they're going to do that. Ultimately, they answer to the state and they're well aware of that."

                      Does that mean Evergrande is – to borrow a Western phrase – "too big to fail".

                      It is tempting to draw parallels with the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, which saw the collapse of Wall Street investment giant Lehman Brothers and a global recession. Back then failing banks and institutions around the world were bailed out by their governments and central banks.

                      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67191262

                      Its end occurred in 2025

                  2. 4.1.1.1.1.1.3.2.2

                    Heard of Evergrande?

                    In 2020 China acted to control bank lending for property development

                    Yes, I have heard of Evergrande. I understand they were a Chinese construction firm. Clearly they were engaged in productive activity, even if they produced too many houses. These things happen of course, but such activity is different from purchasing houses that already exist: I don't think they would have been able to borrow from the government owned banking system if it was for the latter.

          2. 4.1.1.1.2

            No.

            New Zealand is lagging as per economic growth.

            Why, well the government is either macroeconomic policy averse or lacking in intelligence as to implementation.

            Otherwise just acting to

            1."budget down the cost of government" and choosing dependence on foreign investment (old industry – exploitation of resources at the cost of the conservation estate and environment)(high rise rental accommodation)(investor holiday homes)

            2.the interests of a class (private schools – sending children off to foreign universities, health insurance – transferring funding to private hospitals, landlords and those who can assist their children into home ownership here – thus no estate tax/gift duty).

            1. 4.1.1.1.2.1

              the current government is a shitshow. But we're in a longer crisis than these three years. The Key government used large scale immigration to fundamentally change society. One result is we now have a permanent housing crisis. No-one can explain how economic growth is going to change that.

              1. 4.1.1.1.2.1.1

                Immigration was part of an effort at suppressing wages and this incarnation of dumb National (business not the working people first) is continuing with that policy (also risible MW increases, neither FPA nor pay equity and below inflation level wage increases in health and education).

                Housing.

                Their constraints on Kainga Ora mean not enough income related housing.

                But the private sector market is correcting from being over-valued. Also rents are not going up any more. This is largely the result of less demand for housing, emigration.

                Given new consents are down, this would not last once job growth returns and immigration rises.

      2. 4.1.2

        I may well have said something similar, decades ago, when I knew everything and I was gods gift to not just New Zealand but the entire creation. Unfortunately for me when I got to London I quickly realised that I was another unsophisticated kiwi country yokel, with average talent and ability….

    2. 4.2

      Well, yes, she's young. She doesn't know how far back this story goes. At my first job out of school in 1980 there was a guy busy emigrating his family to Australia and telling us all we were mad to remain on this obviously sinking ship. I was horrified to discover I'd left school just in time for the country to descend inescapably into poverty and chaos, but age brought wisdom (or at least, less ignorance).

      1. 4.2.1

        Yeah, it's a recurrent aspect of our economy, and we're much, much poorer because of it. I can remember similar times in early 70's, like you the debacle of Muldoon, Ruthenasia, and the GFC / key years. There's a common thread there.

        The waste of our economy loosing a large proportion of our workforce, generally the more outward looking who could grow the economy, and society, is incalculable. Like with alternative historys where we had Labour's 1975 superannuation scheme, where would we be if we managed our recessions to maintain employment and capital.

        This current one is almost deliberate vandalism.

        1. 4.2.1.1

          why were people leaving during the Muldoon years?

          I remember once Lange's Labour came in there was a whole thing about how now we could buy margarine (whoopee!)

              1. 4.2.1.1.1.1.1

                Loss of confidence in the economy (the UK into the EEC, OPEC oil price increase and declining terms of trade). Oz had its minerals, oil and gas.

                Net migration 1976-1982. House prices flat-lined in the 1976-1981 period, despite high inflation.

                Muldoon resorted to a wage-price freeze and Think Big.

                Then Douglas opened up our market to imports.

                Between 1977 and 1990 there were only two years when more people arrived than left. The net loss of more than 40,000 in 1979 was the largest in New Zealand’s history.

                https://teara.govt.nz/en/history-of-immigration/print

  6. 6

    The MSD is to continue with its tech upgrade.

    The government recently said that nearly one in four beneficiaries could be receiving the wrong level of support due in part to staff having to navigate multiple frontline IT systems.

    "Only transformation of both MSD's operating model and technology systems delivers more savings than costs," a Cabinet briefing on the business case said.

    In the medium term enabling MSD to improve its capability to help clients find and sustain jobs will mean that more New Zealanders are able to financially support themselves and their families.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/573080/ministry-of-social-development-to-go-ahead-with-billion-dollar-it-system-overhaul

    One wonders whether the new Minister of Health has looked at IT cutbacks made for cost saving reasons – that in retrospect were counter-productive.

    1. 6.1

      As for helping clients to find and sustain jobs meaning that more New Zealanders are able to financially support themselves and their families. Here is some food for thought:

      More than half of children in material hardship live in households where most income is from working parents, rather than benefits. (Perry, Brian: Child Poverty in New Zealand, August 2024).

      https://www.manamokopuna.org.nz/publications/media-releases/were-failing-on-child-poverty-reduction-but-its-not-too-late-for-action/#:~:text=More%20than%20half%20of%20children,New%20Zealand%2C%20August%202024).

  7. 7

    While it's lovely to get essentially corporate advice via Radio NZ to get out of property and into investing in business, it would be great for them to admit that the banks have and continue to lend about 22% of loans to non-farm business in total.

    New Zealanders urged to break up with property – Newsroom

    Other than via Sharesies, very few will be going back to investing in specific companies in the NZ Sharemarket which has been stale for decades and for very good reason.

    I think the core NZ opportunity for shifting away from property (for those who still wish to stay in New Zealand withtheir retirement) is for Kiaisaver providers to generate some more useful options.

    1. 7.1

      Did you happen to see this report below Ad?

      Ed McKnight puts forward a bit of a counter to getting out of property.

      https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/568627/property-investors-it-s-not-time-to-break-up-yet

      IMO, we need to grow our export sector to grow our wealth. But instead of inviting offshore interest to invest, we need to invest in ourselves. And when I say we, I'm talking about the government.

      As for getting investors out of housing and into businesses, you're right. Banks favouring housing investment is a big hurdle to overcome that is often overlooked.

      1. 7.1.1

        It's very, very hard to pull out of housing when you know it's the only sure way you've got to protect your children and grandchildren from this world. Provide them with shelter and equity for their own ownership.

        If National and Labour could agree on a new version of the 1999 Growth and Innovation Framework that Helen Clark got to at the Knowledge Wave initiative, we might have a base of local investments to have as much faith in as housing.

        1999 was 7 years after Hawke and Keating started their compulsory super – and that's the thing that's made all the difference for Australia growing local capital for local businesses to invest in.

    2. 7.2

      Thanks for the Newsroom article. I hadn't seen it but agree we need to stop seeing property as an investment. If we could have a period of at least 5 years of residential housing slowly falling in value it might break the habit.

      1. 7.2.1

        Be careful of what you wish for.

        The vast majority of New Zealand's wealth is invested in housing.

        https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/publications/financial-stability-report/2024/november-special-topic-1/update-on-the-housing-market

        “While most economists agree that rapid house price growth isn’t necessarily desirable, many also acknowledge that a broader recovery will be harder without it.”

        https://www.interest.co.nz/property/134263/stagnant-house-prices-may-be-slowing-economic-recovery-economists-say-%E2%80%99s-not

        1. 7.2.1.1

          "While most economists agree that rapid house price growth isn’t necessarily desirable, many also acknowledge that a broader recovery will be harder without it.”

          Wrong. We would better off if house prices were to fall to about 25% of their current level. The more that people have to pay for rent or mortgages the less they have to spend on other things: such expenditure would lead to more employment opportunities and higher wages in the real economy. Property prices above their real value is just phony wealth, and pushing up prices is a "ponzi" scheme.

          1. 7.2.1.1.1

            You are effectively calling for a 25% drop in the vast majority of New Zealander's wealth.

            Making New Zealanders poorer won't encourage them to go out and spend. In fact, IMO it will do the opposite. Resulting in more tightening their belt.

            While I agree the cost of housing compared to incomes is far to high, a further fast drop in house prices will create carnage for some.

            To avoid that carnage, the goal is therefore to slow the increase in house prices while increasing incomes. This could be achieved via tax changes. Yet, I don't see you calling for that side of the equation (increasing incomes). Which will give more people money to spend.

            Further, with rates and insurance costs soaring, it is unlikely a 25% drop in house prices will be fully passed on to tenants.

            1. 7.2.1.1.1.1

              Making New Zealanders poorer won't encourage them to go out and spend.

              Why encourage Kiwis "to go out and spend" – retail therapy? Imho, it's past time to consider that consumption is driving civilisation relentlessly towards global ecological collapse, and that a just transition to sustainable lifestyles is one way, perhaps the only way, to avoid or at least soften that collapse.

              A(t)las, most of the 'sorted' will resist transition with every fibre of their being.

              Country Overshoot Days 2025 [Global Footprint Network 2025]
              Every year, a Country Overshoot Day marks the date when the planet’s annual biocapacity budget would be used up if everyone on Earth lived at the same level of consumption as the residents of that particular country.

              Aotearoa NZ – 30 April (requires the biocapacity of 3 spaceship Earths)
              Australia – 19 March (requires the biocapacity of 4.5 spaceship Earths)

              Ponzi Schemes Are Destructive, Particularly the Biggest One: Global Overshoot [19 Sept 2024]
              Of course, this ecological global pyramid scheme is not actively set up and run by a modern-day scoundrel. Instead, it results from the collective impact of millions of daily decisions by governments, businesses, consumers, citizens, and thought leaders, all acting on outdated assumptions about economic and social dynamics and their relationship to our planet’s ability to support us all.

              Plastic Ponzi scheme [10 July 2025]
              The plastic Ponzi scheme is an analogy of a fraudulent, pyramidal financial investment strategy, where consumers are manipulated to ignore environmental destruction at the promise of incredulous well-being.

              https://newsroom.co.nz/2023/04/30/anne-salmond-is-the-ets-an-environmental-ponzi-scheme/

              1. 7.2.1.1.1.1.1

                You asked: why encourage Kiwis to go out and spend?

                Because consumer spending plays at vital role in the economy. And in one way or another, we all rely on the economy to survive.

                1. 7.2.1.1.1.1.1.1

                  we all rely on the economy to survive

                  Humanity did OK before social media & smartphones – even the current iteration of the financial economy is a human invention / convention.

                  Some see the economy as a global Ponzi scheme that is 'leading' our civilisation towards collapse – time will tell. Imho, a prudent govt would be focused on long-term planning, and a decent govt on food and housing security. But our self-serving CoC is govt by the sorted, for the sorted – simply a machine for the relentless upwards redistribution of wealth.

                  Dissecting An Economic Parasite: The Story Of The Greatest Fraud On Earth [12 July 2025]
                  There is little sentience in this economic system because it is driven not by reason, emotion or other self-reflective capacity, but by a single absolutist dogma that guides all its intentions: profit. The grip that profit has on this civilisation is so tight that it has become virtually impossible to imagine humanity without it.

                  Transitioning to a circular economy: The future we cannot afford to delay [12 May 2025]
                  From environmental degradation to biodiversity loss and mounting waste, we are facing the dire consequences of a reckless economic model that extracts, consumes, and discards. But there is an urgent alternative—one that is not just possible, but essential.

                  A ‘growth’ industry – Food banks are struggling to keep up with demand [30 May 2025]

    3. 7.3

      I was told by an Oz fund manager in the 90's our NZX was too small and poorly regulated to be bothered with. Leave them to it were his words IIRC.

      1. 8.1.1

        Yes.

        Probably due to having more of the Brunt at 2nd 5 style (who would have started with Setefano on the bench if she was available) than Woodman.

        Woodman played centre for the Blues in Super Rugby Aupiki (but Waaka is a specialist centre, so they may not move her in)(and Woodman lacks experience at 2nd 5).

        With Olsen-Baker back the Ferns have spare loose forward depth and Miller has sevens player utility.

    4. 8.4

      As an aside, a learned colleague told me the the wave of CTEs coming for the make players in the next two decades ==as the early professionals from the beginning of the collision era early professionalism in the 1990s hits their 40s and 50s… is going to be dwarfed by the tsunami of brain problems for women rugby players. Hits are nearly as hard but the female skull bones are different bone density/thickness to male.

      1. 8.4.1

        I doubt it. For two main reasons – protocol has changed since those earlier days (as has tech to identify concussion) and women play less games.

        More generally.

        Is there any research as to relativity of impact of hits to skull thickness as a determinant (within males groups or male to female)?

        Does he know of any research as to the number of concussions suffered by male and female players?

        1. 8.4.1.1

          The phrenologists return.

          A paper:

          Cranial thickness in American females and males

          To date, numerous studies have examined the range of cranial thickness variation in modern humans. … The sample consists of 165 specimens collected at autopsy and 15 calvarial specimens. An increase in cranial thickness with age was observed. The results suggest that cranial thickness is not sexually dimorphic outside the onset of hyperostosis frontalis interna (HFI).

          https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9544534/

          And another:

          Cranial thickness in relation to age, sex and general body build in a Danish forensic sample

          The cranial thickness was measured in 64 individuals (43 males, 21 females) autopsied at our institute. … There was no statistically significant difference in cranial thickness measures between this group and the rest of the material. Subsequent analyses failed to reveal any correlations between the cranial thickness and sex and age and height and weight of the individual. This is in accordance with most earlier studies, which likewise show no correlation, or only very faint trends, between cranial thickness and these parameters. This study, thus, adds to other studies showing that cranial thickness cannot be used in aging or sexing human remains. Likewise, in a forensic pathological setting, cranial thickness cannot be inferred from the individuals stature and build, which may be an issue in cases of interpersonal violence with cranial trauma.

          https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11230945/

        2. 8.4.1.2

          Agree its not so much bone thickness as the brain bouncing around with the force of rhe collision. Womans rugby is much lower impact at least currently.

          1. 8.4.1.2.1

            While they are also using cards to sanction any blow to the head (reducing the incidence) there will still be tackle issues regardless – head to knee and hip etc.

            And as you note, there is the abrupt stop at speed, not necessarily cause by any blow to the head.

        3. 8.4.1.3

          I don't trust the protocols (discussion this year with a boy… he got concussed but the coach intervened and sidetracked the ref after the game so ref would forget to document the HIA= played the next week). I don't trust the NZR and their pathetic choir song inflight ad about concussion. Head injuries in rugby happen outside of head collisions (falling badly in a lineout & scoring a try). My neighbour is an old ex All Black … he said he was relieved to hear his mokos were playing soccer.. he limps terribly and his hand is &&^%.

          1. 8.4.1.3.1

            Don't tell him about your learned colleague.

            AI

            Subconcussive Impacts:

            Repeated heading, even when not resulting in a concussion, can cause subconcussive impacts. Evidence suggests these cumulative effects may contribute to cognitive impairment.

            Oz study.

            The results signal a need for further research into heading’s long-term effects, its authors say, as the higher risk of dementia among former professional footballers becomes more apparent.

            https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2025/06/19/caution-required-when-heading-soccer-balls.html

  9. 9

    I've just been listening to Geoff Bertram speak on RNZ about the energy sector in Aotearoa. Demystify the subject.

    He's an economist and writer with decades of experience looking at the energy sector.

    No link up yet but well worth a listen. The korero finishes with reform being a vote winner.

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