Latest Newshub Reid Research poll – yet another rogue poll

Written By: mickysavage - Date published: - 144 comments
Categories: act, election 2020, greens, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, labour, national, nz first, uncategorized - Tags:

Tova O’Brien said that it would be a bombshell result and it was.

The results of tonight’s Newshub Reid Research poll results are:

Labour – 61% up 4.4

National – 25% down 5.5

Greens – 5.7% – up 0.2

NZ First – 2% – down 0.7

Act – 3.3% up 1.5%

Others – who cares.

This is unheard of at this stage of an election campaign.

Kiwis obviously prefer Aroha and compassion to belligerence.

144 comments on “Latest Newshub Reid Research poll – yet another rogue poll”

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  3. 3

    Strange framing from TB, that Collins is the best leader for National to win. Surely no-one believes that National has any chance (short of some extraordinary event)? Collins becoming leader was about powermongering. National could have played the longer game, put in someone who could have rebuilt the party, but no, they went with this shit show led by Collins.

      1. 3.2.1

        No – dead cats do actually bounce. Judith appears to have hit soft bog, and deservedly sunk into it. I wonder if she will be lucky enough to have found an old Kauri log..

    3. 3.3

      National don't keep leaders who lose so maybe putting her in charge was a way to get rid of her once and for all.

      1. 3.3.1

        That seems a bit too much like turkeys voting for Christmas. More likely, they thought that, if she arrested their decline and took a fighting chunk out of the government's vote, she was worth the discomfort of having her as leader, and if she didn't, they could tell her to shove off.

    4. 3.4

      Luxon is not in Parliament yet so Collins is the seat warmer, like a fluffer in the adult movie industry, or a stand in for the pre-record light and sound settings in the movie business that involves actual acting skills

    5. 3.5

      I'm not really sure they have the depth – when Brownlee can be number two, how much talent can be left on the bench? Collins is the best they've got – probably was when Key was parachuted in too.

      Not that they have a ghost of a prayer – the invisible hand is acting to correct a glut of RW nutjobbery – it isn't worth what it used to be.

    6. 3.6

      The thing about Collins is she is a time tested true blue what you see is what you get National diehard. Smart, legal and business experience, not a smartarse "look at me" money flicker. I like her and think she represents National's values really well. Hope she keeps the faith. NZ needs a credible opposition.

  4. 4

    Clearly Judith Codger needs to get nastier and Winnie needs to get whinier. It's got to start paying off eventually.

  6. 6

    And the next story was about how they are adopting some pretty green power policy. Could this be…?

  7. 7

    The roll call of "political and media commentators" who predicted exactly the opposite is too long to list. It's almost as if they just make stuff up, eh?

    Polling period: 16-24 July. So it included both Falloon and ILG stories. How did that little ploy work out for you, Judith?

    (Double down … predict AM Show tomorrow: "Did Labour MP smoke weed at student party in 1990's?" – anonymous source shock claim!)

  8. 8

    It isn't exactly rocket science that Labour would win the election after the Covid thing.

    Well to me any way.

      1. 8.1.1

        Beats me why a supposedly left wing newspaper keeps printing what by our standards is right wing commentary. Makes the rest of the paper feel suspect.

  9. 9

    Regardless of the numbers the poll is brilliant simply because it has David Farrar wetting his pants and, by and large, saying the results are impossible.

  10. 10

    While the Labour Party hierarchy will be pleased with this poll they will also be worried that that their supporters see the election result is assured and don’t get out and vote.

    1. 10.1

      Fair comment, if this poll was a week before the election.

      But it's 8 weeks, so no, not really. I doubt Labour will be at 60% in many polls. 50% on election day would be champagne time.

      1. 10.1.1

        I hear you however, even if the polls come closer to 50% complacency comes to the fore. Not only with the supporters but MPs as well and that can cost seats,

          1. 10.1.1.1.1

            Yes. Need to maintain discipline (that's you, Greg O'Connor).

            Premature triumphalism is pretty harmless on blog comments but dangerous from MPs.

        2. 10.1.1.2

          Yes, but if Labour looks well ahead and the greens are looking on the edge still, I for one will be going Green, rather than staying home.

    2. 10.2

      How different is that to National Party voters seeing the result as a foregone conclusion & not bothering either – there are less of the older core traditional voters now & some of them may well simply agree with the govt covid response but may choose not to vote at all

      1. 10.2.1

        They will still vote Blue. They will definitely believe this is a rogue poll, and the next and the next poll too. I was once involved in the Party and those over sixty are hard core supporters. Judith was the overwhelming favourite of the Party members who were surprised and disappointed with Bridges accession to the leadership.

        1. 10.2.1.1

          Being "once involved" is something you should compare with what applies now, it's quite different in the overall view most people have now

      2. 10.2.2

        The covid situation is completely new and there is no rulebook for anybody. First point was to protect the community. Labour did that. National wanted to protect the economy…like Australia. The turnout and vote from the public could well be decided by what is happening in Victoria rather than the politics here. There may have been some issues at the border around covid but it's still under control and we aren't looking at 10 daily deaths and 400+ new cases. National are very focused on other things …that they no longer realize what is important to the public. And yup it’s too late to backtrack on this and pretend they said something else.

        1. 10.2.2.1

          I agree the people I know have an overall view that looks outside NZ & they have an eye on the future they don't need any or much persuasion the NZ govt has & is giving them the best option & they're onboard the battle through the currently uncertain future

    1. 11.1

      Aww, c'mon. She hasn't even had the job for two weeks yet and she's got them more than two thirds of the way there! If that isn't stunningly successful leadership, what is?

  12. 12

    Westykev. I know it has been a problem in the past, but I think the Covid thing will compel them to vote. Also I think that young first time voters will come out strong for Jacinda, that from what I have heard from my young ones' and their friends.

    1. 12.1

      Absolute right, Jacinda has the younger adult support but this still needs to translate to votes on the day.

    2. 12.2

      Yes agreed. And remember also that Judith laughing at the 16 year climate change protestors a while back. These are her constituents! She rubbishes them at her peril. They are voting in this election now. And there will be 13 and 14 year olds voting in the next. Waky wakey

  13. 13

    Would imagine (And I in no way know) Collins would have taken the job on the proviso she doesn't get turfed after the election loss.

    Either that or given an extremely high profile good portfolio and standing down

      1. 13.1.1

        It would have been the only way anyone would have taken on the job this close to the election tbf.

        Ardern probably did the same thing when given it so close in 2017.

        Just worked out better for her

        1. 13.1.1.1

          Maybe , I just think that Collins couldn't resist it when they had few other options & doing it for that reason is why she doesn't resonate

            1. 13.1.1.1.1.1

              You may think that, I don't for the simple reason she seems to have applied a nano-second to the Lee-Galloway "reveal" & I believe it's a failure that is costing her & National. You, & she, I think underestimate what voters want right now & that's a way of life that makes sense when they look outside NZ

              1. 13.1.1.1.1.1.1

                Thank you for pretending to be able to read my thoughts and match them in your head to a politician I couldn't give a rats about.

                Much appreciated

            2. 13.1.1.1.1.2

              She's in that National Party – that pretty much ensures that she is, as a matter of fact, stupid. Comes with all the other National Party characteristics – the arrogance, selfishness, self-righteousness, self-aggrandizing, greed and corruption.

    2. 13.2

      Either that or given an extremely high profile good portfolio and standing down

      She's in no position to negotiate that, though. She doesn't know for certain who will be left after the election, what will have transpired or who will become leader. Whoever has the numbers then has a free hand to do what they like with her ranking and portfolios.

      1. 13.2.1

        I suspect she did some basic questioning:

        at ~30%, is the nat vote likely to go up or down?

        if it goes up and she's not leader, between Luxon and the inevitable pool of new mps after the 2020 election, she's basically hit her parliamentary career height. She doesn't have dirt on too many mps just entering parliament.

        if it goes down and she's not leader, it'll just be rinse and repeat for a derelict party, and the new leader will get more votes in 2023 so look comparatively successful.

        If she becomes leader and it goes up, she might have enough weight to fend off a leadership challenge from Luxon long enough to knife him.

        If she becomes leader and it goes down, she gets "leader of the opposition" on her CV in the way Blinglish is a former PM. Good for those internationasl business trips. And who knows, she might recover enough in 2023 to form a govt in 2026 (but I doubt it).

  14. 14

    You give out good you get good back. You give out bad you get bad back.

    What goes around comes around.

      1. 15.1.1

        Rule 1 of a party's internal polls: If they are any good, they are presented to the caucus, and leaked.

        None have been.

      2. 15.1.2

        Heh.

        Funnier still is the tv3 spin put on Collins' preferred PM rating, being a massive 14%

        Doesn't that mean over 10% of those surveyed who said they'd vote national, don't want her as prime minister?

        #loyal

      1. 16.2.1

        An alternative musical chairs in which you remove participants and the remaining have to sit on as many chairs as possible when the music stops. But the music played on and on and the players got confused and started trashing the furniture spitting their dummies, one by one.

    1. 17.1

      Those numbers illustrate National's problem well.

      In 2017 there was a big pool of potential Labour votes to be gained from NZF and the Greens. There was enough evidence that National could lose the election – it was a question of how the non-Nat votes were distributed.

      In 2020 the well is almost dry, for National. NZF and ACT could get zero and it wouldn't help much.

  18. 18

    New Zealanders look around the world and thank Jacinda and the team.

    This is a vote for positive affirmation kindness steady improvements and science.

    We all know the pandemic is raging out of control elsewhere, but here we can continue to think and plan for our future while coping with returnees and visitors.

    Many many Happy Returns Jacinda and Labour/Greens.

  19. 19

    Doesn't seem to be a lot of "don't knows" .My impression is that people have pretty much made up their minds already- apart from some minor tactical switching Lab/greens and ACT/Nat- and the campaign isn't going to change much of anything.

    With one reservation – another Falloon sized scandal around Nat might convince a few more of their supporters to stay home. Collins may yet beat the Billy English target

      2. 19.1.2

        Maybe, just maybe, they'll have to change tack. The danger for them is they go even dirtier and nastier, and as attacking the most popular pm ever clearly isn't working out too well for them, they could try and push some policy or get in step with the majority of people in NZ.

        1. 19.1.2.1

          There’s a new dirty story doing the rounds about Clarke Gayford. Remember about two years ago a dirty tale was spread about him in an attempt to embarrass Jacinda? It looks like it has happened again.

          2. 19.1.2.1.2

            Yeah Anne. I went out for a drink tonight and a couple of people passed on this story about Clarke. I was to able to tell them that I had seen the PM and Clarke quite happily together at a Labour Party debate in Mt Albert the week before.

          6. 19.1.2.1.6

            Putting aside the latest Ardern thing, as I think her partner isn't that dim.

            Parliament is a big place and there have always been people shagging each other, like any work place.

            In the end that is all it is. A work place

            And it doesn't matter which side.

            There is no oath they sign up to saying this Nat MP must not shag Deb's from that Labour office dept, or the other way round

            1. 19.1.2.1.6.1

              Yes, I made the same point here last week. Its been going on since time immemorial. I think the heightened atmosphere of the Beehive enclave and the power cliques that exist around parliament make it worse than your average workplace. And yes, it has gone on in all political parties.

              Hopefully there will be a culture change with the Speaker's new code of conduct which he has made clear he is going to enforce.

              Not a moment too soon.

              1. 19.1.2.1.6.1.1

                The more frantic feel ups leers and quick fucks on site (if poss) the better in my book – it's a high energy, go for it place – sure beats a solo wank with or without the the Speakers new code of conduct.

    1. 20.1

      They may do, but above all they choose competent.

      Collins vastly over-rates her own competence. Ardern's critics under-rate hers.

      1. 20.1.1

        Absolutely right observer. The number of Collins boosters in the media who thought she only had to show up for Question Time and would go on to monster Ardern was ridiculous.

  22. 22

    So is that a low from Bridge's low in May?

    Years have passed and I keep thinking
    What a fool I've been
    I look back into the past and ( wrote a book)
    Think of way back then
    I know that I lost everything I thought I that could win
    I guess I should have listened to my friends ( ummmm)

    All the burning bridges that have fallen after me
    All the lonely feelings and the burning memories
    Everyone I left behind each time I closed the door
    Burning bridges lost (lasts) forevermore

  23. 23

    On behalf of absent regulars, I'd like to put the contrarian view out for consideration:

    This appallingly dismal poll result proves the general public has seen through the Labour Party to the hollow husks of bought neo-liberal corporate shills they truly are. Turn Labour left!

    1. 23.1

      haha.

      I think this demonstrates that NZ is comfortable with neoliberalism. Not sure how lefties will reconcile that with a continuing housing crisis, no relief for welfare, and climate action fails, but we will see I guess 🙂

      1. 23.1.1

        More seriously, I am curious about the missing 5%, who voted Green in 2014 but Labour in 2017. What's up with that?

        I wish we had polls like this,

        1. 23.1.1.1

          Isn't that kind of info usually derived from exit polls? I've never been exit polled here nor do I remember hearing about any here. Maybe I've just been paying attention to other stuff election day.

            1. 23.1.1.1.1.1

              Thanks.

              Looks like they ask all the questions needed, but don't work out the split weka's looking for. You'd need the individual questionnaires for that.

              3000-odd results also strikes me as a smallish sample size for meaningful results for the smaller parties.

        2. 23.1.1.2

          As to half the Greens vote from 2014 apparently shifting to Labour, I'm sure you can find convincing arguments for whatever hypothesis you favour and against whichever ideas you disfavour, such as:

          The Greens are popular when Labour looks like a mess, when Labour gets its shit together those voters go back.

          With the loss of Graham and Clendon, it looks like the Greens' focus on environment has been lost in favour of social issues, so those voters really focused on environmental issues don't feel Greens really speak for them any more (or alternatively actively disagree with the social justice positions).

          I'm sure there's more but I'm out of energy for trying to think them up and articulate them.

          1. 23.1.1.2.1

            When Labour's vote looked in desperate straits, left support swung that way. This time the reverse ought to apply.

  24. 24

    The party vote numbers always get the headlines, but often there's more revealing data in the other, less noticed numbers.

    83% approve of Ardern's performance. That number has been consistently high for months. It hasn't really changed, all through the game of Blue Musical Chairs. (Note: approval. Not preferred PM, a different measure).

    It's not really about Bridges/Muller/Collins/Whoever. If a PM is very popular, they get re-elected. Labour never beat Key.

    1. 24.1

      Yep. We’ve pretty much made our minds up who we want to lead the country through the aftermath of Covid. Whether I would wish that on the shoulders of that amazing young woman is another thing.

  25. 25

    Let's hope that this denotes a permanent shift in public consciousness. Also, in a hyper-individualized culture, it looks like leadership, or the perception of leaders, is the single biggest determinant of electoral outcomes. Scary, and to my mind, odd. But it means that labour needs to put some serious effort into talent management and succession planning for Ardern.

  26. 26

    Damn the poll coming out on a Sunday night. Now Mike Hosking will have to do a rewrite of Monday's Moan. I wonder what angle he'll take.

    The words 'momentum' and 'traction' might get a mention which will be ironic since Collins' recent big announcement about big roading projects with no idea of costs was literally and metaphorically movement, momentum and traction. I'll be amazed if he doesn't get 'hypocrisy' in there somewhere.

  27. 27

    With ACT polling 3.3% National can't afford not to gift them Epsom as that would make a 3-4 seat difference to the overall margin.

    Does that mean that Goldsmith misses out?

    Does it mean that the gun lobby gets their MP? Who is 4th on the ACT list (Chris Baillie)? Is he as crazy as some of the other coat-tailers have been in the past?

    1. 27.1

      Does Goldsmith even get in on National’s list on these numbers? If the people of Epsom want him they might just have to vote for him.

        2. 27.1.1.2

          Just feature the word gold on the billboard of Goldsmith in Epsom, that will give him a much better chance.

  28. 28

    Tell crusher she is dreaming if she can still win from here, and tell her she would have more chance at winning next Saturday’s Lotto draw either the dogs or the trots at Addington than this yrs election.

  29. 29

    I’d go light on the alcohol tonight were I a Collin’s supporter as I just might regret it in the morning.

  30. 30

    I think we should all agree that this is, in fact, a rogue poll. smiley

    So in the spirit of fairness, I've knocked a generous 10% off Labour's support, and transferred it directly to National, up 10%. (All other parties unchanged).

    New result: Labour 65, Greens 7. National 44, ACT 4.

    I hope Gerry is happy now.

  31. 31

    Crusher was going to Crush cars she managed a paltry 2 Cars a good insight to her all bark and no bite. Barking mad with voters she's barking up the wrong tree .

    1. 31.1

      People keep saying this but it's wrong. Despite overseeing the passage of the legislation, Collins crushed zero cars. Only two cars were crushed, true, but that was under Tolley.

      1. 31.1.1

        Amazing how few remember that the reputation is totally confected – including the press gallery. Low standards.

  32. 32

    Don't get too carried away.

    The time for celebration will be at about 9-10pm on September 19.

    Not a moment before.

  33. 33

    Dear Media, please savage Judith Collins tomorrow about how she has led the National Party to their lowest polling in 20 years.

    1. 33.1

      If a 3.1 % increase for Collins as the preferred PM is all she can manage, she may as well not have bothered.

  34. 34

    a 10% swing against the National Party Since Crushless Took over now she can't do any better than Muller or Bridges.

    Desperation has done huge damage to National the Strong team dwindles a long with their popularity.

    JLR has another round of Dirt to dump on the Dirty Politics Party.

    Goldsmith is way ou t of his depth as Finance Minister suggesting we take a chainsaw to public spending.$80 billion over 10 years .

    Look across the Tasman to the Liberal Party Australias version of the Nactional Party are spending more per Capita in $NZ value.

    So the Liberal Party know what they are doing but Goldsmith is happy to under finance the economy in the deepest recession since 1929.

    That's why NZ had a much longer recession /depression because the Conservatives were more interested in balancing the budget than keeping the economy afloat.

  35. 35

    Interesting thing about this result is that it gives Labour 77 MPs. Their list only has 81 people on it. If their vote were to be a little higher than this, such that it entitled them to 82 or more MPs, they'd actually create an *underhang* and shrink Parliament.

    2. 35.2

      The other funny potential result is that National currently have 38 electorate MPs and this result would give them 32 MPs. Of course there'd be a general swing towards Labour and they'd lose electorates, but it puts them in the position of potentially getting 0 list MPs (which is important for Goldsmith in Epsom) *and* creating an overhang.

      So totally nutso potential results:

      1. Labour creates an underhang of a couple of seats

      2. National creates an overhang of a couple of seats

      3. Act gets knocked out increasing the 'wasted vote' which is redistributed back to the other parties, giving the Greens 1 or 2 more MPs than might be expected.

      2. 35.2.2

        61%-25% means the Nats get down to a dozen electorates (assuming that there's some vote splitting to save Nat electorate MPs – otherwise we're looking at a situation where Labour basically sweeps the country*).

        Of that dozen, most of them would be in Auckland, with only two (Southland and Selwyn) south of Taranaki-King Country.

        *Note that Clutha-Southland went for the Nat candidate by 39% in 2017. That's about 32% more Nat than the country. If Labour's winning the country by 36%, Clutha-Southland falls on a straight swing. And since other seats would be easily maxxed out, in terms of Labour vote… the swing in Southland might actually be greater than a straight swing.

  36. 36

    With Labour apparently safely ahead some people may decide to vote for the Greens to ensure they stay safely above 5%. To hedge their bets on Swarbrick winning Auckland Central seems a risky strategy.

    1. 36.1

      Taking the seat of National matters more than who wins it.

      Labour lost a lot of electorates in the 2005 and 2008 votes and I think the Greens need to stand aside in more than a few to help get them back.

      I dont think we will see much left wing policy from Labour this time, but if National get in, we are going to have an austerity program that is unprecedented, to the point that it will sweep away what is left of the Savage/Kirk welfare state.

      We need to get out and vote Labour. Just as the USA-ians need to vote Biden.

  37. 37

    .
    Newshub Reid Research:
    Polls conducted at same point before 2011 / 2020 Elections (end of 1st term of New Govt seeking re-election):

    [Fieldwork 2 months out from Election]:

    2011 / 2020

    Lab … 26.6 .. / … 60.9

    Green 9.8 … / … 5.7

    NZF … 1.9 … / … 2.0

    Nat … 57.4 .. / .. 25.1

    ACT … 1.6 … / … 3.3

      1. 37.1.1

        Yeah, although poll movement after the 2 earthquakes was relatively minor … nowhere near the major re-alignment that happened during the COVID-19 Lockdown.

    2. 37.2

      .
      Preferred PM

      2011 / 2020:

      PM (Key: Nat) 54.5% / (Ardern: Lab) 62.0%

      Oppo Ldr (Goff: Lab) 6.2% / (Collins: Nat) 14.6

      .

      Leader Performance

      2011 / 2020

      PM

      (2011 Key: Nat) .. Well 76.2% … Poorly 11.5% … Net + 64.7

      (2020 Ardern: Lab) .. Well 85.3% … Poorly 8.2% … Net + 77.1

      Oppo Ldr

      (2011 Goff: Lab) .. Well 26.8% … Poorly 49.1% … Net – 22.3

      (2020 Collins: Nat) .. Well 39.5% … Poorly 30.8% … Net + 8.7

  39. 39

    " PM (Key: Nat) 54.5% / (Ardern: Lab) 62.0%

    Finally a PM that can claim the mantle of the most " popular Prime minister ever !!!!!

    Glad that corpse can be finally buried.

  40. 40

    Luke Malpass (who for a recent arrival from Australia seems to have established strong connections to National rather quickly) is reporting in Stuff this morning that Brownlee has told him that their internals have them 10 points higher and Labour 10 lower than last nights RR poll. That still puts Labour on or over 50% even if it’s true. I guess if that’s right we’ll soon see National’s numbers leaked to bolster their position?

    1. 40.1

      This result does seem a little bit out to me but probably by 5% between the major parties rather than 10%

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