Gone
Having resigned as Minister, how long before we see a by-election in Ohariu as Peter Dunne’s credibility keeps dripping away? And will we see an early election?
zzero use
election 2014
Trends
So, the latest Fairfax poll isn’t flash for Labour and it’s the same old story of leadership. But don’t get too excited there’s no ‘trend’ in the Fairfax – they’ve polled just three times since the election. We also know that most pollsters have been over polling National for years. Instead, lets ask what the polls show now compared to the immediate pre-election poll.
Election narratives
National has set out its narrative for the 2014 election. Time for the Left to do the same.
Budget roundup
Budget links and reaction (updates to come).
Four years of misguided austerity have delayed any recovery.
Despite the advance publicity there is nothing significant here for families in poverty.
Labour on MMP “consultation”
According to Labour: “Judith Collins has claimed that she ‘consulted’ with political parties but was unable to reach consensus. There was absolutely no consultation.”
City Rail Link in the Budget?
A reader sent us a comment from another blog by someone who was polled a couple of weeks back. The questions are very interesting, especially once you realise that it’s clearly being done for National and the Right in Auckland (one of the questions gives it away). Have a read, then I’ll tell you why I reckon the Nats are going to fund the City Rail Link in the Budget.
Key goes negative
John Key has gone hard negative, with his rants about North Korea and communism, and now an attack on the Greens. Negative is where you go when you don’t have a positive story to tell the electorate. I wonder if the Nats’ internal polling has got Key spooked…
NRT: MMP review: Running down the clock
I/S at No Right Turn on the strange disappearance of the Electoral Commission recommendations on MMP. Soon it will be too late to have changes in place for 2014…
Polling merry-go-round
The Roy Morgan polls continue their mad merry-go-round, and we bloggers continue to get too excited about it. The latest RM projects a win for Labour / Greens.
Room left for Greens in Labour reshuffle
I think the Labour reshuffle is quite clever in how it signals the portfolios that its willing to give to the Greens and encourages them to set about being lead opposition spokespeople on those topics. Sure, the reshuffle has some weird stuff in it – ChCh Earthquake spokesperson a backbencher!, 6 ex-staffers in the top 10, Mallard’s ‘demotion’ that isn’t. But there’s some smarts there too.
That ‘ol margin of error
There is no sensible “political narrative” that makes sense of the two most recent polls, it’s just noise – the margin of error. But the underlying trend is still good for the Left…
Poll of polls looking good
Yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll looks good for Labour, but individual polls are noisy. Much more importantly, better measures such as the Pundit poll of polls are also looking good for the political Left. Let’s see Labour and the Greens extend their lead to establish a clear majority, without NZF or any other party holding the balance of power…
Growing the Left vote
At the moment the Left and Right political blocs are poised more or less evenly in the polls. So how do we grow the Left vote to win in 2014?
Living together
There’s a thought in some parts of Labour that they need to ‘put the Greens in their place’, then they will get back the votes that the Greens have taken from them, and that will lead to victory. It’s an Underpants Gnome strategy, missing the crucial link of how doing what they want to do emotionally results in the supposed objective. Better to build together.
Deja vu all over again: Labour in 2014 edition
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again here: a Labour victory in 2014 isn’t necessarily better than a National victory in 2014.
And Fairfax makes three
After good news for Labour in the most recent TV1 and 3 News polls, the latest Fairfax poll is the third in the set confirming that the party has emerged from the recent media circus in OK shape. As far as I know that’s the last big poll of 2012, and with the Left / Right gap halved since the election, a reasonable place for Labour to be sitting at the end of the year.
The enemy is still not your friend
It’s pretty clear: the Greens have managed to hold on to the massive gain they made during the last election campaign, largely at Labour’s expense as it imploded. Labour’s back to its pre-campaign level, at National’s expense. Lab+Green=Nat or thereabouts but the Left needs a good 5% more from the Right to feel confident. So, this is not the time to be listening to John Armstrong’s advice.
Ministers in a Lab/Green govt
Paddy Gower looked fit to burst with excitement over ‘Greens and Labour fighting over Finance portfolio‘ last night. Of course, the actual quote not so exciting – just Russel Norman saying it was one portfolio that would be the subject of negotiations in the formation of a Lab/Green govt. But it does raise a valid question – who would be ministers in a Lab/Green govt?
Why I’m still worried
Labour may still be well below its 2008 election result, when it was chucked out after 3 terms, but, thanks to the doubling of Greens support, Labour+Green is level pegging with National in the latest Roy Morgan. Add New Zealand First, and the opposition is well clear. Except, that’s not an election winning scenario for the Left.
3 out of 3
First Gillard, then Miliband, now Shearer – three Labour leaders who have completely turned things round with one speech. The result for Shearer – an energised Labour Party ready to work for victory in 2014, and plenty for kiwis to talk about over the Christmas break.
Shuffle the caucus deck
By all means, get rid of the unfortunate experiment that is the David Shearer leadership. But the problem is really with the NZLP’s parliamentary caucus who appear to have lost sight of what we want them to achieve. Until that problem is fixed the party will continue to shed people willing to exert effort supporting them.
It really is the economy, stupid
The latest Roy Morgan also includes a poll of what people think is the single most important issue facing New Zealand.It makes informative reading. Jobs is the largest: 1 in 5 consider it the most important issue. Combined, the economic categories are 57% of people’s top issue, up from 49% a year ago, and 43% the year before that.
Supernumerary
I’ve been thinking about what you might call a ‘good problem’ for the Left.. but it leads me to a ‘problem problem’. OK, so let’s say we win the next election – as the Left must do and should do given how unpopular the Nats’ policies are and, for the last year, how inept their political management has been. How do you share the economic portfolios out?
Collins’ faction tries to magic up an ally
It’s been interesting to watch the Collins Faction of National talk down the Conservative Party all year. It’s not hard to see why – they occupy space/take votes that a Collins-led National would want for itself. What the Collins Faction would like is a decent liberal-right party. That would allow National to swing conservative and give up liberal votes to an ally, rather than to the Left.
Key / Peters 2014
John “power at any cost” Key isn’t ruling out a deal with Peters in 2014. Peters isn’t ruling it out either. Deputy PM Peters anyone?
National’s new slogan
National – Conservative coalition
The National – Conservative dream ticket for 2014 suffered a bit of a setback in the weekend, when Colin Craig pronounced Key “too gay for Helensville”. Note – this post is not satire.
Government in turmoil over spending cap
Conflict between support parties. The government without the majority needed for legislation. The Nats’ economic plans in turmoil. Thank goodness the country is in such safe, steady hands.
Turn off turnout – National’s 2014 strategy?
Depress turnout among low-income voters by changing the enrolment rules – it’s an old right-wing trick. The Republicans are doing it in the US – it looks like National may try it on here. They should not succeed.
Strategy and opinion
Thanks to Rob Salmond and Josie Pagani it is now clear that Labour’s pitch to the centre is an intentional strategy. That is helpful as now perhaps we can have a reasonable discussion about how well it’s working, and what else might work better.
Frankly Speaking: “John Banks: condition deteriorating”
Frank Macskasy over at Frankly Speaking writes some very long posts that are often full of interesting information. This one does a good analysis of the recommendations from the Electoral Commission and various party positions on it. On the way through he has a good swipe at John Banks, who it would be safe to say, he considers to be political cabbage.
Race-baiting works, a little
Meh. National has race-baited over water rights to win back some of its wavering lower-middle class Pakeha support. It’s won some of that support back. For now. The thing about turning tides is that not every wave, or even every set of waves for some time, reaches less far up the beach than the one lowest before. Within each cycle there are dips and spikes due to events. Doesn’t change the cycle.
The art of the possible
The Nats’ latest defence of asset sales is ‘if Labour doesn’t say they’ll buy them back,then they secretly agree with the sales’. Well, we would all like Labour to be able to make that commitment but, in the real world, that would be irresponsible . The incoming government is going to have to know how the bad a states the Nats leave the books in first.
Peters smacks down Key
John Key started preparing the ground to work with NZF, looking to forge a “Save Super” platform for 2014. But Winston Peters smacked him down hard.
Unable to retire
Sharples and Turia remind me of an old couple running the family store with no kids to pass it on to. They want to retire. If they do, that’ll be curtains for everything they’ve built. Without them, the Maori Party goes to a deserving death. Plus Key will be pressuring them to stay. They’re his only ghost of a chance. How much longer can they keep going? They’ll be 72 and 70 in 2014.
Polls and elections
Another poll to add to current mix. Not a big shift, but in the right direction, and getting the right kinds of headline. And here’s another headline that isn’t going to help the Nats – the wage gap with Australia is growing at the rate of $1 a month.