It has been a surprise at just how far the revelations about the GCSB governance have made into the collective conciousness of NZ. Bearing in mind the continuing outpouring from Snowden and other whistleblowers about the US and their allies surveillance efforts on citizens and friendly states, it isn’t going to be a surprise if this winds up being an issue in the election.
In 2014 the New Zealand Left must have more on its agenda than “win power”. We should want to create a better New Zealand, and doing that is about so much more than economic policy (which is also, obviously, important). It has to touch everything. And it’s going to take people working in different areas on different parts of the plan to make it all happen.
Here & in the UK: food poverty, increases in queues to foodbanks, in diseases of poverty, a crisis in affordable housing, & struggles & insecurites of the working poor. But poverty denialists blame the poor, smear beneficiaries, & talk of (always-around-the-corner) “brighter futures”.
The cult of the super rich, cheer led by the uncritical echo chamber in the MSM. Those struggling in poverty receive a few crumbs of charity, promoting superficial “good will” by those indulging in the orgy of consumerist excess. Underlying causes & solutions are ignored.
David Cunliffe has now been Labour leader for 100 days. This marks a good time for reflection on what has happened and how well he has done. And a chance to have a look into the future and predict what may happen in the next 12 months.
It’s looking like Team John Key is trying every PR spin trick in the book to gain an advantage for the election next year. Does he have anything to offer Kiwis other than bash, spin and photos ops? And McGehan Close? The underclass?
John Key’s attacks on Hone Harawira for his trip to South Africa were hypocritical: an attempt to smear a significant political opponent, and divert from the governments failings & its gradual falling out of favour with many (potential) voters.
It never fails to amaze me that supposedly experienced and professional (ie, paid) political figures routinely reaffirm a fairly deep sense of stupidity.
On Thursday Vernon Small wrote on the Chch East by-election: “Anything above 53 per cent will look like a fine result for Labour, anything under 50 per cent a relative failure. If Doocey can attract 40 per cent of the vote National can be well-pleased. Less than 33 per cent and the warning bells will be ringing for 2014.” And we know what happened next.
Everybody is talking up the Conservatives as a partner for National after 2014 to save Key from being the least successful National PM ever. But there’s one problem: they don’t agree on anything. The Conservatives are reactionaries, the Nats are neo-libs. Here’s a list of things that Colin ‘Crazy’ Craig believes in and his policies compared to the Nats’.
The Conservatives have a significant constituency and pose an interesting dynamic for the future of NZ politics. Their constituency will possibly letting the left in or sharing power on the right. The Conservatives are fond of saying how close they got in the previous election given how little time they had worked on it. Colin comes out on top against Paula then be prepared for a real change in the political landscape. They are already having an impact without being in parliament.
I’ve been thinking about what next years’ election is going to be like. Not like 2011 that’s for sure. Labour was in the doldrums and ran a largely negative campaign. Let’s assume that Labour has learnt its lesson about running an effective campaign and ticks all the boxes. The secret weapon that Labour and the Greens have eschewed for as many elections as I can remember is actually working together.
Te Reo Putake speculates on exactly what plan that National and John Key have to distort the MMP review and Iain Lee Galloway’s private members bill so that it allows them to stay in power. Most probably by gifting Crazy Colin and the Conservatives with several chances to get several partners into parliament while discarding the husks of their former coalition partners.
Formerly proud to be a westie National MP Paula Bennett has decided to seek to become the MP for the new Upper Harbour seat. Does this mean that she will now give up wearing leopard skins?
The draft boundaries for the 2014 election have been released. Down south there are significant changes in Christchurch. In West Auckland the changes are most pronounced, with a new North Harbour seat being proposed.
The resignation announcements of National MPs are coming thick and fast. It shows that National knows that it’s going to have fewer MPs are the next election. If it doesn’t want all its seats clogged with MPs that are going nowhere, they need to retire at the election. For the Left, it’s good confirmation that National knows its losing. It’s smart politics from National, though, and something Labour could emulate.
Clare Trevett details in today’s Herald how Key has taken to bringing Ministers with good news to his Monday news conferences “to lambast the media with good news about the progress being made in a certain area.” Sources tell me that the good news goes well beyond the Monday presser. Ministerial staff run a filter across all portfolio announcements: if it’s good news, the Minister gets to make the announcement. If its not such good news, the job goes to the Departmental head.
Fairfax suffered the double indignity of first having its poll contradicted by One News’ hours later and then Key himself mocking the idea that National is on 50%. Still rogue polls happen. That’s statistics. We can look through the variation in single polls by comparing the 6 After David polls to their 6 Before Cunliffe predecessors to see if there really has been a Cunliffe bounce.
John Armstrong, Tracy Watkins, and Fran O’Sullivan all write today about National’s plunging polls and the growing likelihood that this will be the first two-term National government. They take different approaches – Armstrong: there’s nothing for Key to worry about, Watkins: there was a problem but the tide’s turning back, O’Sullivan: yeah, Key’s fucked.
Granny supported little Johnny’s plan to go off to market and sell the family’s cash cow. But even she’s furious that what he’s come back with amounts to nothing more than a hill of beans. As Granny Herald notes, the Nats’ determination to push ahead with the remaining sales regardless is all about ideology, and the knowledge that they’re going to lose the next election.
At least one MP if not the whole of National’s caucus knew that the news concerning Len Brown and Bevan Chuang would break soon eight days before it did. Slater’s and Palino’s claims are becoming more and more difficult to believe. And in a comment yesterday Bad12 sums up why this is such bad news for National.
Winston Peters’ KiwiFund proposal would nationalise KiwiSaver. Russel Norman supports it, but in competition with private schemes. Cunliffe is open to negotiation. Key is dismissive, but says Peters is so untrustworthy he is likely to back down & form an alliance with National anyway.
National led the combined Labour+Green vote for 76 successive Roy Morgan polls. But how times have changed. The Left’s led 10 of the last 14 polls, and all the last five. With solid vision, policies, and a credible candidate for PM, the Left finally has the goods to win. Watch for the cracks to appear in the Nats as they position for a post-Key future.
The latest Roy Morgan poll has Labour 37%, Green 12.5%, and National down to 41.5%. As Roy Morgan says, this is the closest Labour has been since 2008. Morgan’s comment: “If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that a Labour/ Greens alliance would win easily.” The Conservatives have dropped from 2% to 0.5% – no help there.
Today’s decision that John Banks will stand trial for signing a false donations return signals the beginning of the end of the Key government. Increasingly it resembles the last days of the Shipley government only worse, as corruption replaces shambles. The decision also puts the famous tea party conversation between Key and Banks, where they stitched up the deal to provide the present Government’s majority, into new perspective.
Statistics New Zealand has released the census night data and there will be one new seat in the North Island. The process of sorting out new boundaries could have significant implications for seats particularly those around Auckland.
The Herald and John Key are whining that National will have a ‘moral mandate’ to govern after the next election if it is the highest polling party, even if it can’t form a majority and the Left can. But the Herald and Key don’t answer the critical question: how? How would a National Party that can’t secure a majority in Parliament govern?
With Cunliffe’s Labour in the ascendance, NAct and/supporters pull out their bag of dirty and deceptively manipulative, Hollow Men, tricks. Adviser to John Key & Boris Johnson, Mark Textor, will most likely be used again: ruthless attack politics, playing on fears & prejudices.
David Cunliffe’s reign as leader of the Labour Party has started with a great deal of promise and this morning’s Herald Digipoll is encouraging. Labour is finally looking united and policy statements are sharp and effective. But we may be no more than 400 days to the next election. And unless we want the instability of a Labour Green NZ First Coalition then support for the left and work by its activists will need to be increased dramatically.
The response to Metiria Turei’s sttements about affordable housing on The Vote, raises questions about political narratives are told to the general electorate? The Greens, Mana and Cunliffe have stressed their “vision“. How to tell it so it reaches the hearts of New Zealanders?
Winston Peters may be the king maker after the next election. No wonder that John Key has started to court the person he said as a matter of principle he would never have in his Government.
Over the last few weeks Labour has been in a state of agitation as the party, the affiliates and even the caucus have come to the realisation that the Shearer project has failed.
I’ve been having a look at the Roy Morgan trend. Oddly, I don’t see this Labour ‘flat patch’ that people are claiming is happening. What is happening is that the Greens are trending slightly down (as it usually does mid-term) and Labour isn’t rising fast enough to offset that. We’re still some way off the safe-zone for Labour+Greens, and the question is whether we’ll get there.
Key is clearly getting nervous about the implosion of his possible electoral partners in 2014. He’s running the “largest party has a moral mandate to govern line” again. It’s destabilising, and it’s rubbish, here’s why…
Sharples has resigned as Maori Party co-leader. Leaving politics next year. Flavell will become co-leader, I guess. The government’s getting shaky. Sharples can stay on as a minister but will he? Will Flavell be willing to stick with the National coalition? Add Dunne’s anger over the emails, Key’s dismissive treatment of him at post-Cab Banks’ trial, and Labour’s ‘flat patch’… things are getting snappy.
There’s a lot of talk at the moment about whether Labour is too close to the Greens. Lately, we’ve seen spin coming out that Labour might be able to govern without the Greens, favouring NZF instead. Meanwhile, the Greens seem happy to talk about a future Greens-Labour government. National’s leaking to Peters and Peters is playing the race card. What’s going on?
