Polity: X more thoughts on poll bias

Whenever the media report on polls, they get accused of all manner of biases by the blinkered commentariat. Most of it is nonsense, of course. But some criticism of the polling methods themselves may have more merit that Rob Salmond first thought.  While he is not yelling “fire” at this stage, he does think there may be smoke. Something that he did not think that three years ago.

On polls and things

The periodic agony and ecstasy attached to opinion poll results has kicked in with a pessimistic TVOne poll result being released on the weekend. But how accurate are they and are we in danger of damaging an election campaign by focussing too much on them?

Polity: A bad week

There’s no skating around it – Labour didn’t have a good last week. And the biggest shame is that beltway errors have been allowed to eclipse real progress on issues that actually matter to New Zealand families. The lack of direct relevance in the errors does not matter, because these issues matter for perceptions. If Labour is perceived as bumbling, or as lacking self-awareness, that will certainly be reflected at the ballot box. But there were a few bright spots.

Labour’s Manukau East candidate selection

Today the Labour Party selects its candidate for the Manukau East seat.  The seat is one of the safest Labour seats in the country and whoever wins could be in Parliament for a long time.  There is a strong lineup of candidates and the selection is a wide open one.  Update: and Jenny Selesa has been selected.

Home thoughts from abroad

Porirua mayor Nick Leggett has put up a couple  interesting posts about Labour’s prospects in the upcoming election in progressonline.  I think his political message is timely and true: Labour’s approach to this election cannot be “just a list of things that you’re against,” rather it should focus on what it’s for, and what it will do for New Zealanders. That could be very popular with voters.

David Cunliffe’s home

National is now targeting David Cunliffe and his family.   Metiria Turei was attacked for living in a castle and wearing designer jackets, and now David Cunliffe is being attacked for being wealthy.  The criticisms miss the point.  There is nothing inherently wrong with being wealthy.  But there is everything wrong in setting fire to the ladder of social support after you have had the opportunity to climb it.

Polity: Key practices 56% truth inflation

John Key makes up the figures during a session of parliament for the expected unemployment in coming years when he took office. The apparent reason is to make his governments piss-poor performance running the economy look better. Of course there is that problem that Rob Salmond can link to the December 2008 projections from the Treasury which show John Key to be lying (yet again).

Poverty on the agenda

The documentary ‘Mind the Gap’ and an interview with a UNICEF advocacy manager focus on poverty and inequality. Zombie “neoliberal” policies have increased poverty & inequality, damaging the futures of too many children. We will all benefit from good government policies underpinned by a commitment to collective approaches and responsibility.

LB: Greens’ Solar Sense and National’s Nonsense

Local Bodies looks at some (very cool) solar installations and the Greens solar policy. We are now seeing a stark contrast between a Government desperate to support the status quo of increasing charges and large company profits, while the future focussed Greens are truly progressive in their thinking.

Russel Norman to Colin Craig – Bring it on

Colin Craig has threatened Russel Norman with defamation proceedings unless he apologises for saying that Craig prefers women to be in the kitchen and gays should be in the closet.  Norman has refused to apologise.  At the risk of being thrown out of the Lawyers’ union shouldn’t they debate these issues publicly and let the public decide rather than fight it out in Court?

Easy Vote or Voter Intimidation?

Good to see Labour has stood up against National’s “harder-to-vote” revisions to the Electoral Amendment Bill, especially making voters now have to state their name to get a voting paper. The reason for this is to allow scrutineers to more easily challenge a voter’s credentials, and is similar to voter intimidation practices in conservative States in the US. Expect  National Party scrutineers questioning more voter credentials in the 2014 election.

Plausible deniability: Smoke & mirrors

It’s puzzling why John Key diverted attention from who spied on Winston Peters, by implicating Cameron Slater.  Following revelations about the 5 Eyes spying capabilities, & illegal surveillance of Kim Dotcom, there is much at stake for Key. Recapping some significant details in the surveillance saga.

National’s Herald shows its true colours

The NZ Herald starts cuddling up even closer to the National party. I guess they have definitely dropped that shallow facade of being the “Newspaper of Record”. Mind you, it isn’t a good look when Paula Bennett, the minister meant to take care of children, cuddles up with the heartless hypocrite who laughs at dead children. National really must be worried about this election.

Fairfax quotes Government cheerleader

Fairfax posted an article recently where three businessmen were interviewed on what they thought the political parties should be discussing this election year. The comments from the first interviewee were basically a John Key love in so I thought we should try and provide some balance …

John Key, Blogsters and the Dotcom leaks

This week has seen how sophisticated the publicity campaign against Kim Dotcom has been.  The surprising detail that a Herald Socialite columnist has published with political implications potentially represents a new tactic by National.  And the confirmation that Key is regularly in contact with Cameron Slater shows how deep the relationship is between National and the Sewer is.  And there was the use of, as Key calls them, blogsters to smear opposition MPs with hints of corruption.  This is going to be an interesting year …

Rotten

Stuff has an astounding interview with John Key where he reveals he has regular catch-ups with Cameron Slater.

We’ve always known that there were close ties between National and the abomination that is Whaleoil but now we know that the ties go right to the top.

NRT: Ticket clipping

National’s charter schools are predicated on the idea that the public education system is doing a bad job. They’re (over-)funded to do things differently. So its more than a little odd that He Puna Marama Trust’s charter school is simply getting local state schools to do all their teaching for them. They just clip the ticket converting taxpayers money to private profit. Ridiculous corrupt NAct policy.

Jordan Williams: running the shell game

You have to look at the “taxpayers union” and ask how even the idiots who were behind ACT think that they can play the same trick to a new generation. But Jordan Williams seems to think that despite the law, Len Brown should pay for a Auckland council ordered audit of the mayoral office. Perhaps he should actually read the law about the supershitty that ACT foisted on Auckland ratepayers. Reading the law may prevent another legal failure from the lawyer who lost for Cameron Slater.

Dotcom’s extradition and the 2014 general election

In further news about Dotcom he has said that if the Internet Party has not reached 5% in the polls before the printing of the ballot papers he will endorse another party.  An endorsement could be the difference between the left winning and losing the next election.  And the Greens have raised the prospect of a Ministerial Veto of any extradition order.

NRT: National hates transparency

Yesterday Labour tried to put forward a Parliamentary motion calling on the government to release the draft text of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement before signing it, on the simple democratic grounds that the public deserved to know what agreements were being made in our name. National refused to. The upshot: National hates transparency. It also hates democracy.

Local Bodies: First they ignore you

Local bodies writes on the way that National has been concentrating their personal attacks at the Greens. It is a pretty typical display by National in any election year. But you get the impression they’re going to seriously be dumpster diving for dirt this year – especially Judith Collins. National are getting desperate at their disappearing coalition partners. “First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win”

Key’s transparent gerrymander

For John Key, MMP stands for “Manipulate Members of Parliament”. Senior journalists are beginning to call him on the games he’s playing, and good on them; gerrymander entered the New Zealand political lexicon at Key’s press conference this week. Key wants to push the issues away till closer to the election, when he’ll know what his polling is telling him – I hope the gallery don’t let him.

Play it again John

John Key has welcomed Tony Abbott’s confirmation that Australia would extend access to students under the Higher Education Loan Program to long-term New Zealand residents in Australia.  But this policy was announced eight months ago.

NZ Herald watch – history repeats

The NZ Herald has a long history of opposing Maori resistance and supporting colonisation. It has always been right wing with a strong commercial focus & MO.  Yesterday it censored news of Waitangi Day protests.  Today an editorial spins in slippery style, for the Govt’s failing PowerCo sales.

Here’s an idea! Clean energy…

Anadarko fails to find commercially viable oil in Taranaki, and is now moving on to waste even more time, money and resources in the Canterbury basin.  This is a big fail for John Key’s casino capitalist, speculative economic policy.  And a fail for NZ’s people and environment. [update: Hikoi]

John Key: telling it like it isn’t

John Key says that the Greens make personal attacks: calling for ministers to be sacked.  This is hardly a diversionary personal attack unlike the nastiest of Key’s cheap point scoring . The Greens “go hard” in focusing on relevant issues: public transport, environment, poverty & inequality gap.

No details, please, we’re gallery hacks

Blue has a look at the the gallery hacks and what they’re looking for from a politician. The answer is – not much. Political journalists do not require any special qualifications. They go to journalism school to learn how to structure an article and avoid being sued. There is no test you must pass to become a Gallery hack proving that you understand policy, economics or statistics. Their job is write ‘colour’ pieces about the ‘cut and thrust’ of politics….