Best stick to the polling, Farrar

David Farrar has had a go at David Clark for supposedly blaming (or crediting, Farrar can’t make up his mind) National for the revenue loss resulting from Labour’s 2008 tax cuts after Clark said that National’s tax cuts have sucked 2.5% of GDP out of the Crown’s revenue, widening the deficit by $5b a year. Either Farrar can’t read or he’s desperately spinning.

Remember 1984

Labour moving to the right would be a disaster for the left. It doesn’t need to, in order to lead a winning coalition at the next election. The last time a small cabal in Labour tried that strategy was in 1984 – it proved to be a disaster for New Zealand and for the Labour Party. I’m not sure that the Labour leadership is making a definitive shift to the right – more like a tentative search for the marshmallow centre. As a strategy, it is a recipe for failure.

Labour moving to the right?

Many commentators have interpreted David Shearer’s recent speech as signaling a “move to the right”. I think it’s too early to tell. But if it’s true, I think it’s good news for lefties…

Nats running a $5b a year strategic deficit

Labour’s Revenue spokesman, David Clark, has picked up on a statement in IRD’s Briefing to the Incoming Minister that “2.5 percentage points of this decline [in tax take as a percentage of GDP] is attributable to policy changes”. 2.5% of GDP is $5 billion a year. So, a huge chunk of the record deficits that National is running is attributable to their tax cuts for the rich.

Chinese threats over Crafars deal

China’s political counsel (note, not a trade official) has threatened New Zealand over the Crafar Farms deal saying that New Zealand trade to China and investment from China is at risk. It seems an extraordinary action over a supposedly private business arrangement. As was Chinese Officials’ meeting with the OIO while the first Crafar farm decision was being made.

Port developments

Ports of Auckland management may be starting to realise that they have bitten off more than they can chew.  Faced with international union action, they have called a halt to the redundancy process.

Better ideas from Finland

David Shearer used Finland as an example of successful small country economic development in  yesterday’s very good speech, but his main focus was on education. Dianne Ravitch in the NY Review of Books shows how Finland also leads the world in education – and with few tests and excellent teachers, they don’t need to bag any “bad” ones.

Nats back down from ACC privatisation why not asset sales?

National has backed down from privatising ACC’s work account. To make it work, they were going to have to pump up ACC levies and make it pay a dividend to the Crown to make prices high enough for the private sector to compete. A sign of how weak the government is that they couldn’t push this through. Problem is, the same logic applies to asset sales.

Key’s reshuffle bad news for working Kiwis

The reshuffle announced yesterday effectively made Steven Joyce the new Minister of Labour.

Call me paranoid but I’m thinking that putting the Government’s bully-boy in charge of the rights of working Kiwis may not bode well for employment relations over the next few years.

Juking the stats

There’s some odd omissions from Key’s new ’10 targets’. There’s nothing hard. Nothing about closing the gap with Australia, formerly goal number 1. Nothing about creating jobs, despite 170,000 being promised. Nothing about the cycleway that was going to end the recession. It invites a closer look at the 10 targets. And then you discover, they’ll all happen anyway.

Operation 8 verdict

The judge is just dismissing the jury for the day – they will resume deliberations tomorrow morning.

If this is it…

Key and co’s habit of making vague lists of things they would like to happen, rather then doing anything to make them happen, is becoming a joke. The other day it was a 6 point business action plan, not to be confused with their 4 priorities or 6 point plan for growth or 120 point economic plan. Key’s big speech today addresses the 4 priorites with a 10 point wishlist. English says they’ll be divided into 5 themes. 4 priorites times 10 results divided by 5 themes. You’ll need NCEA level 2 just to do the maths.

Mythbustin’: Waitakere Man

Chris Trotter invented the myth of the so-called ‘Waitakere Man’. It assumes Labour has lost voters because we’re all contractors now or in roles where we could be contractors, and don’t need their union-based labour policies and benefit system but want simpler rules for small business. No factory or retail workers in this model. Problem is, it’s not true.

On those that need to work harder

Recently, an article appeared in the Wall Street Journal describing how CEOs around the world spend their time.  The article drew on data from a larger study, the Executive Time Use Project . This project relied on reports of time use by CEO’s personal assistants; making it more accurate. It came across my usual reading and I thought I might share some of the findings with you.

Shearer’s speech exceeds expectations

You all know that many of  us authors at The Standard have been critical of David Shearer. Well, I’ve just read Shearer’s speech. It’s brilliant. It talks about the big issues head on and unapologetically. There’s no party line pap and some nice stylistic points. It damns Key without ever mentioning him or his government and is an even more devastating critique of Key for it.

Pearson goes to ground over privacy scandal

It’s a bit rich that PoAL are claiming they’re “investigating” online privacy breaches now when it’s obvious they’ve been colluding with Cameron Slater for months.

It’s also interesting that the limited “no comment” comment PoAL has issued has been in Tony Gibson’s name rather than Richard Pearson’s.

Key’s laundry list of broken promises

He must resign. Surely. Here is Key, speaking to the PSA in 2008, making very specific promises about public service jobs, tax cuts, and asset sales that helped him get elected. Promises he has since broken. There’s no excuse. He wasn’t blind-sided by events. He made these promises never intending to keep them. Key is refusing to comment but if the man has any ethics he’ll resign.

Key: better for me if you don’t vote

Key hates interest-free student loans, the only thing that has kept thousands more from leaving the country for higher wages, but says “it’s not politically sustainable to put interest back on student loans”. Why? “That is about the only thing that will get [young people] out of bed before 7 o’clock at night to vote”. Key’s willing to keep a policy he hates as long as you don’t vote.

Wastewatch: measuring graduate incomes

The Nats abandoned their wastewatch.co.nz site a few years back after being unable to identify significant waste. They should have just waited a few years. Now, the examples are neverending.
Today’s case: Steven Joyce’s plan to publish the average incomes of graduates of different courses. A huge administrative task to tell us nothing.

More from the Port…

Emergency Council Meetings, mediation, court action – the fight continues on a number of fronts. But at the core of the dispute is the SuperCity structure National set up – to give Council company boards free-rein, and democratically elected members no say.

Port thuggery

Looks like Ports of Auckland have been unlawfully passing workers’ private information to Cameron Slater.

It’s just another example of the intimidation and thuggery the port management is becoming well known for.

Ministry of National Significance?

The trailers for John Key’s Thursday speech are calling it for a ” new super-Ministry” under the command of Steven Joyce. Merger isn’t the issue – the policy direction is. If Joyce just stays focussed on roads of national significance, mines and oil wells of national significance, and casinos of national significance it will be another waste of time reshuffle. If it becomes genuinely high quality export focussed, then it may prove worthwhile. Fingers crossed.

Reining in student loans

Student loans will remain interest free, but the Nats are planning to rein them in “in a big way”. I guess that means that typical Nat slash-and-burn thinking will result in damaging restrictions to educational access in due course.

China

There’s been much wailing and gnashing of teeth over Pengxin Shanghai’s attempt to buy the Crafar farms. Justified too. I want to take a step back and look at the strategy that China is executing and the imperatives behind it. Like any successful organisation, China is seeking to perpetuate its power. That requires securing access to resources. And China’s sitting on the low-cost cash to do it.