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1:24 pm, April 19th, 2026 - 33 comments
Categories: chris bishop, Christopher Luxon, leadership, national -
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It looks like the National Party coups may be over soon…or at least until the next poll.
Yesterday I wrote it’s now or never (before the election):
The more the coups are attempted and successfully resisted, the more likely Luxon will stay until November. Multiple reports only serve to highlight National’s weaknesses.
And narcissistic prone folks will never admit defeat or shame.
Luxon has never been able to admit weakness or mistakes & only projects it on others. It’s who he is.
And this morning, the heavily demoted National Party MP Chris Bishop, appeared on Q&A with Jack Tame to speak up his boss. Successive reports confirmed Bishop had been doing the numbers, supported by James Meager, to overthrow Luxon. But this morning Bishop denied those reports and claimed not one Caucus member felt that Luxon was doing a poor job.
Not one.
Tame had appealed to Bishop’s “honesty” but I guess that’s what you get when you try to appeal to the ethics of a former tobacco lobbyist.
TV1 poll out tonight 6 pm.
Pointless prediction: it won't be terrible enough for Luxon to quit (the One News poll tends to be more favourable than other polls to National anyway).
Bishop is smart enough to know you don't want your fingerprints on the knife. Say the obligatory things in public ("100% support") then "reluctantly" accept the job when offered.
At the current rate, we’ll enjoy 6 more monthly National Party leadership coups until Election Day. Reminds me of the story of the boy who cried coup.
LOL
Never say die, but the next election might be Winston First's last throw of the political dice. If results give him a choice between a two-party Labour–NZF coalition (35% + 12% with Green C&S), and continuing the three-party CoC (30% + 12% + 8%), Winston might just choose Labour again – he really doesn't like sharing the limelight with Seymour.
Could definitely be a Labour/NZF Coalition, they worked quite well in the 2017 Coalition, until Winston went AWOL, and started slagging Labour off, which backfired on him big time. Winston likes calling the shots, so obviously Labour would have to bend over for him, if there was to be a Labour/NZF Coalition after the 2026 November Election.
And, if this poll result was replicated in the general election, NZF wouldn't be needed to form a centre-left government. Winston wouldn’t be kingmaker – yay!
"Labour has not only overtaken National for the first time in the poll since before the 2023 election, but the party has climbed into a seven-point lead."
48% (Labour + Green) plays the CoC’s 47%.
Party Vote Green, and hang in there Luxon.
Why do people keep shipping a Labour–NZ First coalition when Winston Peters has ruled it out for quite some time now?
I suspect a lot of it comes from anxiety about the Greens and Te Pāti Māori. But the answer to that is not to go running to Matua Shane. It’s to get better at the politics of coalition management.
A Labour-led government would not be obliged to launder every Green policy, personality, or peccadillo. That is what disciplined coalition governance is for: clear boundaries, clear agreements, and a calmly delivered narrative about what is and is not government policy.
And politically, the smarter strategy is the opposite of keeping NZ First in play. It is to tie them as tightly as possible to the current coalition. Make voters see National, ACT, and NZ First as one governing bloc that rises or falls together.
That harms all three parties, weakens Peters’ will-he-or-won’t-he kingmaker routine, robs him of political oxygen, strips away his leverage, and forces NZ First onto weaker ground.
The more firmly they are bound to National and ACT, the less room they have to reinvent themselves later as some neutral patriotic alternative.
Winston will definitely go with Labour if he can get the concessions he desires, that's how MMP works, however we will not know until 7th November 2026, until then everything is pure speculation.
Sure, he might. It’s a possibility Labour should at least plan for.
But it would be better to focus on building a position where that outcome isn’t necessary. We can't afford to build our strategy around the whims of a single octogenarian.
Speculation? Sure, some of it is pure. Some of it is very shallow.
Worse for National/Luxon than I expected. 29.7% (rounded up). But the 16% for Luxon is the worst. No PM can possibly survive that. Or ever has (in MMP era).
Comparison, only using same poll (One News/Colmar Brunton as was):
Bolger's low point 20%. Clark 27%. Ardern 29%. (source: Wikipedia).
Looks like it will be coup time again soon, but if they do it again, it will need to be executed swiftly and decisively. The more they try and fail, the worse it shows up the National Party for what they are.
CEO Luxon spreads the blame for his poor performance – Party must do better
The Nats and their backers would naturally prefer Luxon to make a timely jump, and might be able winkle him out with a signed guarantee of a New Year's Day knighthood. Not a King's Birthday gong though, as the optics would be terrible.
https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/our-programmes/new-zealand-royal-honours/make-nomination/nominations-honours
" Could definitely be a Labour/NZF Coalition, they worked quite well in the 2017 Coalition "
Any " slight "movement in terms of policy to the left that Labour felt comfortable with in 2017-20 Winston vetoed it by applying his infamous hand break.
A Lab-NZF government will disappoint and frustrate many who want real reform and change that benefit many working and middle class voters that will never be delivered by Hipkins / Edmonds and Peters/Jones.
The current economic and political status quo is failing so many who don't have wealth and can't influence government direction or approach like we have seen during this administration with tax cuts for landlords and others only then to claim there is no money for public investment and enforce austerity that harms many in our communities.
As for Chris Bishop. The first mistake is believing anything he says is actually true. He has a track record of deceit.
Best case for labour is that 5% more national party supporters with half a brain, and who dislike Seymour and Peters, shift their vote to labour.
Then three years should be enough for NZ1 to dissolve (after Peter's retires) and Seymour's lot should sink. National could rebuild, giving them every chance of re-election down the track.
I think people will like Luxon more when they get to know him better…
Peters will attack The Greens vehemently. The Left will do well to return the favour, without descending to the Trumpian depths Peter's will plumb. He has enabled this Government and this Government is out of favour with the public. Don't let Peters slither out from beneath the dying body of the beast he is one of the heads of.
As others have said (incl me : ) Ol' Wily Winnie needs absolutely, to be connected as an integral part of the coalition of NACT, and all its associated shitting on New Zealanders..
No matter his, and others, attempts to spray air freshener on him : )
"NZ First is surging in support, because Peters is the only party leader to have noticed this discontent and is responding with big populist policies. It does not actually matter that NZ First is itself deeply embedded in the Establishment, sits inside the current Government, takes corporate money, and has delivered almost nothing on any of this during the parliamentary term. The “feeling” is what matters. He is the one naming the villains and promising to swing a hammer at them."
Bryce Edwards writes: https://www.facebook.com/edwards.bryce/posts/pfbid02Z9XqziaeBG7TQ6XCrmf66KuGaTcFgMDdBRNWZ54F77QhsyZzDe49rVPqHfy2Jd3Gl
Peters is bullish*tting the public. He won't do the things he's promising. What populist claim has he made real in this round? Anything at all of real substance? Putting his "achievements" up beside his promises would do the trick. Getting bogged-down in the details of what he's proposing would be a loser's game; he'll bluff and bluster better than anyone else. Just post his claims and solid achievements, if you can find any, side by side.
Wily Winnie is absolutely a Master of this(almost a Jedi…except, the opposite : )
And yep, that would be a very effective way to…stymy/thwart him.
Tie him to his past decisions, including those made while he was part of the previous Government. Be truthful. Keep it simple. Pick the populist issues he brayed about but didn't fix.
Either that or to an ass and drive it out of town.
Sounds like a positive action Plan ! Re your
In the Ol' West they used to have a very non woke way of dealing with card sharps, snake oil salesmen,grifters…and assorted shysters!
Well, yes, Peters is Minister of Rail after all.
That..was a lol : )
Wanted to say, "Sorry for derailing the thread" but decided I'd said enough already.
Winston will float with wind in the Pre Election campaign and rhetoric. Will be interesting his take on the Abolishment of the Maaori Seats, that will light up the Pre Election Campaign. The COC have been one of the most racist Government's this country has had in Modern Times and the leaders of ACT and NZF are both part Maaori.
Today's quiz: Who are the Faithless Five?
(Luxon has claimed this morning there are 5 National MPs responsible for the coup talk, up from zero a few days ago. If he says 5 then the real number is obviously higher).
List MPs about to lose their seats include Andrew Bayly and Melissa Lee, both demoted by Luxon. A couple of suspects there.
OMG Luxon completely reversed claims that 5 MPs were against him.
Idiot.
Monday morning reckons. Then Monday afternoon reverse-reckons. Then Tuesday morning "clarification". Then Tuesday afternoon …
He is quite simply the most inept Prime Minister in living memory. That's not an exaggeration. Others stumbled, but none repeated the same mistakes again and again and again and …
He’s flooding the zone with shambles.
And Shane Jones is but a chicken!