The general election is shaping up as an unpredictable nailbiter. There’s a lot of talk about overhang, which I admit confuses me. Te Pāti Māori (TPM) has all but self-destructed during this term and is limping to survival by putting all its limited resources into campaigning for the electorate votes (aka candidate votes) in the Māori Seats, perhaps more so than in the past. To my knowledge, TPM or its various predecessors have never scaled the 5% electorate mountain-like threshold. (NB The Opportunity Party (TOP) may or may not pull off this feat but it appears quite unlikely that they’ll win an Electorate Seat, e.g., Mt Albert)
Unsurprisingly, mostly people on the Right frown furiously on this deliberate tactic because it could be advantageous to the Left bloc. Although it sounds like scare-mongering and/or intimidating threats, some more fair-minded (?) folk have argued that it could undermine the legitimacy of the Māori Seats.
To avoid such accusations and undesired consequences, there’s a way out for TPM.
There’s another significant lever Te Pāti Māori could pull instead: Not submit a list at all.
Due to a quirk in the Electoral Act, a party that doesn’t submit a list doesn’t create an overhang. Instead, the remaining parties receive proportions of 120 seats, less the number of electorates won by independents or parties without a list.
TPM has 5 days left to make up their minds and compete in a ‘clean’ fight, as Nomination Day is 8 October by when parties will have to submit their party lists.
I’d argue that National should also take this avenue because 5 of its current 49 seats are List Seats with 44 Electorate Seats.
Some Right-whiners are so outraged at the prospect of TPM, or any party that’s not unequivocally Right for that matter, ‘gaming’ the system that they (conveniently?) forget the murky deal in a shady coffee shop in a leafy suburb that kept ACT alive.
I used Wikipedia to see which election under MMP resulted in an overhang in Parliament. These were in 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2023. Only once (2005) did TPM or its predecessor support a Labour-led Government; in 2008 and 2011 they supported the Fifth National Government led by John ‘Dirty Man’ Key; in 2014 the one-seat overhang was United Future that, together with the Māori Party, supported Fifth National Government. In 2023, TPM created an overhang of 2 seats but, of course, it didn’t support Luxon’s Coalition. In other words, on balance, in the past, the Māori Seats have favoured the Right more than the Left, so the cries to abolish the Māori Seats are biased and self-serving. However, it provides ammunition for the loud and proud anti-Tiriti campaigners.
Some clever clogs of the Right have suggested that National adopt a Trumpian-style approach to win the election and game the system hard and on mass scale by trying to create an overhang of and for its own. The Wikipedia information shows that National has never achieved this feat, not even in in the disastrous (for National) election in 2002 when they (National) only got 27 seats in total of which 21 were Electorate Seats. In all but 2023, National’s allocation of Electorate Seats has hovered around 70% of total seats. National came close in 2023, though (i.e., 90%). So, mate, you’re dreaming!
None of the above necessitates and includes an in-depth look at hotly contested and/or marginal seats. I have no knowledge of National Electorate MPs who perform well locally in their electorate, akin Labour MP Helen White who’s by all accounts an outstanding local MP but almost invisible in Parliament, which causes the ire of many an impatient Labour-supporter alike. There may indeed be the National outlier who will be the exception that proves the rule and defies the odds of holding on to their electorate when their flailing leader Luxon flaps his wingless arms and crashes down to grassroots ground. In any case, reading all those local and national polls plus all those commentaries and ‘analyses’ and the chances of shock-jocks getting elected gives me brain strain for no obvious gain.
Thus, I’d argue that National should also take the avenue of not submitting a list at all because 5 of its current 49 seats are List Seats with 44 Electorate Seats and on current polling none of its limpet List candidates will get into Parliament. Unless they really believe that it’ll be easier to create an overhang of their own by holding on to more electorates whilst their party vote is dropping like a diving albatross AND lead Coalition Mark II!
So, to overhang for TPM or a hangover for National, that’s the more exciting & fascinating question. It’s up the voters.
"Te Pāti Māori (TPM) has all but self-destructed during this term and is limping to survival by putting all its limited resources into campaigning for the electorate votes (aka candidate votes) in the Māori Seats"
This is not "limping" this is, finally, diving down deep into the puna and grasping the tuna by the tail.
They will succeed in this strategy and it will change everything.
"TPM has 5 days left to make up their minds and compete in a ‘clean’ fight"
Too late, he hoiho e haere ana (apologies etc.)
Maōri already know what to do.
We shall see e whai ake nei.
I think you made a textbook mistake there: TPM ≠ Māori.
Māori who vote TPM know what to do. So do Māori who don't.
My actual mistake was putting the emphasis on the "o" 🙂
I get that you get it, but not everyone gets it, so …
As of 1 Oct 2026, 55% of all enrolled Māori have enrolled on the Māori roll.
Voters on the general roll cannot vote for candidates standing in Māori electorates.
All voters can vote for whichever party they choose unless that party decides not to submit a party list by 8 Oct 2006.
My point is that TPM doesn’t speak for or represents all Māori, no party does.