The Race for Tamaki

We live in strange times.

Normally I would completely ignore the seat of Tamaki. Based in East Auckland it is one of the wealthiest areas of the city.

And normally elections inevitably result in right wing candidates winning.

The candidates on the right are at least superficially impressive. Act’s James Christmas is a lawyer who was previously highly placed on National’s list and who just missed out on Parliament last term. This goes to show how interchangable the candidates are.

National’s Mahesh Muralidhar is from a tech backgound and has strong business credentials.

In normal times one of these candidates would win.

But the seat offers an interesting juxtaposition to Mt Albert and if there is a chance of Melissa Lee winning Mt Albert because of splits on the left there is also a chance of Labour’s Max Harris winning Tamaki because of splits on the right. Act and National are competing head to head and if they split the vote well enough then a modest share of the electorate vote could win.

I understand that it is heresy to suggest that Labour could win the bluest of blue urban seats.

But there are a few forces in play.

The teal movement in Australia shows how much the right wing culture war crap is despised in inner city suburbs. These are areas full of intelligent people. Suggesting that climate change is some sort of left wing conspiracy or that immigrants should be feared or that “traditional” family values should be preferred do not go down with large parts of the local population, particulary with immigrants who comprise a fairly significant part of the electorate and more importantly with women who comprise half of the electorate.

Your climate change denying anti diversity anti intellectual anti woman lines are a turn off for many.

And when the wind is blowing strongly these seats are vulnerable.

In 1987 I remember watching with astonishment how Judith Tizard almost won Remuera. Admittedly this was the time of Rogernomics of which the wealthy approved wholeheartedly but it shows that people will vote on perceptions and principles, whatever they are.

And our previous candidate, someone who I know and someone who is an utterly decent human being, did not have the cut through that Max is achieving.

Last time the National candidate, the odious and catholically challenged Simon O’Connor scored 33.5% of the vote, Van Velden scored 43.6% and the Labour candidate achieved 21.9% of the vote. It does not take much imagination to see how an increase of the Labour vote and a split of the right wing vote could result in a quite unusal occurrance, the winning of Rob Muldoon’s seat by a left winger.

In 2020 I went out on a limb and predicted that Vanushi Walters had a fighting chance of winning Upper Harbour. In part because I was getting leaks of information from the right castigating their candidate and in part because I thought she was a great candidate. I claim bragging rights for the result.

And it should be noted that Max is running a really, really, really strong campaign.

Max is a great candidate. I have known him since he was a student activist and member of the legendary Princess Street branch of the Labour Party. He has matured into a really talented and dedicated lawyer. He is willing to give intellectual grunt and effort to causes that will not necessarily be popular but just because he believes in justice. He speaks well. He is campaigning out of his skin. His events attract huge crowds, he has a really energised team and he has had donations flood in.

He should make it to Parliament on the list. He is part of the next generation of Labour leaders that we have to get over the line and into Parliament so we can reinvigorate and reenergise the Caucus.

But the Tamaki result might be a boilover.

So watch Tamaki. There is the outside chance of a big surprise.