You know a government is in trouble when it has to resort to gerrymander to boost its prospects. The coalition government’s decision to restrict voter enrolment is disgraceful.
David Seymour’s arrogance was on full display in his snarky reference to “dropkicks.”
It was reminiscent of the same sense of entitlement shown in Hillary Clintons’ description of the “deplorables” who cost her the US Presidency in 2016. Motor-mouth Luxon also let his guard slip, saying he was not going to “take any advice from frickin’ Chris Hipkins”
The latest Talbot/Mills poll continues to show the gradual erosion of support for the present government – the leaders are neck-and-neck, Labour has edged ahead, Green support is holding up and ACT support is dropping. People are beginning to consider the idea of a Labour-led return to government at the next election.
The Government’s change to the electoral law to remove on-the-day enrolment will reduce participation. The Electoral Commission’s report on the 2023 election stated:
This election saw continued high levels of participation, with the highest enrolment rate (94.7%) since 2008 and a turnout rate of 78.2% of those enrolled.
It also saw a large increase in enrolment activity after writ day, when the electoral rolls used for issuing ordinary votes are printed. In 2023 there were more than 600,000 enrolments or updates after writ day, including 450,000 during the voting period (110,000 of which were on election day itself).
This contributed to significant growth in the number of special votes issued during the election. Over 600,000 special votes were issued – meaning 21% of voters cast a special vote. Special votes take longer to issue and to process than ordinary votes, which means additional pressure both on the service provided at voting places and on the official count.
The Electoral Commission also laid out who the changes to enrolment procedures would likely affect:
Officials warned the changes could have serious consequences on turnout. The Electoral Commission advised that special votes are more likely to come from areas with high Māori, Asian, and Pacific communities.
Younger people are also far more likely to cast special votes — particularly first-time voters. In 2023, 33% of 18- to 19-year-old voters enrolled or updated their details during the voting period, including 48% of Māori voters aged 18 to 19.
In 2023, 17.3% of Māori voters updated their details or enrolled during the voting period. The same figure for the general population is 18.9%.
Officials raised some concerns about whether the changes might raise Treaty of Waitangi problems, as the Treaty “provides for equal citizenship rights for Māori”.
“These rights include the right to political representation. Setting an earlier enrolment deadline will increase the administrative requirements to exercise this right,” they said.
Officials were also concerned that based on “previous trends” there may be an “increased likelihood” that votes cast by Māori would be disallowed at a higher rate than those cast by non-Māori, depending on how people responded to the new deadline for updating their details.
These are all groups who are most likely in the aggregate to support parties of the left, as they are most vulnerable to increases in the cost of living, where the present Government is proving to be totally ineffective.
The changes should be seen for what they are; a blatant attempt to move the goalposts by a desperate and increasingly arrogant government under fire.
This is a sharp and necessary diagnosis. We absolutely need to keep fighting the electoral law changes, both on principle and for their immediate political consequence.
But we also need to adapt quickly to the new terrain.
The coalition isn’t going to back down; for them, suppressing turnout may well be a survival strategy. Because if these clowns don't hang together, they're at real risk of being hung separately.
If we want to win under these conditions, we need to fundamentally rethink how we campaign.
First, GOTV becomes the central campaign objective, not just a late-stage push. Enrolment, re-enrolment, and direct engagement must start early and continue relentlessly. We need to be where people are: schools, unions, marae, churches, sports clubs, and treat every conversation as a chance to activate or enrol a voter.
Second, we need a clear, values-driven alternative to this government. It's not enough to point out their cruelty or incompetence; people need to believe there's a better path.
That means consistent, emotionally resonant messaging. Not massive policy drops. And a sense that voting Left is a vote for real and impactful change, not just resistance.
Third, we need to prepare for suppression and disinformation. That means a real-time comms strategy, robust volunteer training, and grassroots coordination that’s resilient and responsive.
We can't afford to be caught off guard or constantly playing catch-up.
Fourth, we need to win the social media war. The right has a structural advantage—they get their message out across traditional and social media before we’ve even got our pants on.
We need a coherent, omni-channel strategy that puts our message in front of people fast, often, and in language that lands.
Finally, this won’t be a short, sharp campaign. We’re in for a long-haul fight. One that will look more like US-style organising than the typical NZ sprint. That means building infrastructure, training leaders, and sustaining energy across many months, not just a couple of weeks.
This is smart thinking by the coalition. The Conservatives did something similar in the UK and in the US it is commonplace. Doesn't matter what it is – anything that reduces voter participation is good for the right.
Only if the left lets them.
And I’d be cautious about crediting the coalition with political genius just yet.
Sure, it’s tactically clever to try rigging the rules in your favour. But doing it this blatantly, and this far out from an election, risks serious blowback.
In the UK and US, the right at least wrapped these moves in the thin veil of “protecting against voter fraud”. A flimsy, bullshit excuse, but an excuse nonetheless. Here, there's no such cover. No one believes illegal voting is a real problem. And complaints about how long it takes to count special votes just don’t carry the same emotional charge.
That makes this harder to sell. And easier to mobilise against.
And the timing? Giving the left 15 months to build a massive enrolment and GOTV campaign focused on telling voters, “This government despises you so much it doesn't even want you to vote” is… well, let’s call it a bold move.
If they were actually smart, they’d do this kind of thing three or four months out, under urgency, and deny the opposition to chance to mobilise.
If this is attempted fascism, it’s a very Kiwi kind: half-hearted, half-assed, and vaguely apologetic. Which, honestly, is on brand for this government.
They can't even dismantle democracy properly.
Agree, although my guess is that the transparency is to minimise blowback from more reasonable Nat voters rather than totally incompetent suppression activities.
The government believes in democracy so little that it won't fund late enrolments properly – another simple attack line.
"This is smart thinking by the coalition." you think Champagne Socialist.?
Really? Selfish self seeking callous calculated cavalier crooked come to mind.
This is a clear indication that we have a rogue government screwing the scrum.
The referee recommended different rules, but they want to win the game by hook or by crook, so are gaming the rules.
So help all you are able to fight this, just as we fought the Treaty Bill and the RSBill
Further we need to give people planks to enrol and vote, Democracy in Action for
Public Health, Public Education, Full Employment, Fair Tax, Public Insurance underpinning in Disasters, Resilient Planning and involvement in decisions.
I'll say something I never thought I'd say before.
If this voter suppression tactic (cos that's what it is – voter suppression) goes through, then any National-led government after the next election becomes ILLEGITIMATE if they win by one or two seats.
Make no mistake, the polls are so bad for Nats/Act/NZFascist that they are willing to take all steps to suppress voting they might support the Left. That includes hindering people to cast a vote.
In which case physical acts of resistance will be justified.
So if all who care about access to democracy go to this website https://elections.nz/getting-involved/download-resources/
you can download A4 posters, shrink down to 4 per page, print as bumper stickers and drive around from now until 13days before the election, making it easy, obvious and accessible for everyone to see just HOW to ensure democracy has your voice.
In the same way that free thinking, compassionate Kiwis have done with Toitū Te Tiriti, I think enrolling to vote is our next big focus.
[Please stick to only one user handle here, thanks – Incognito]
Mod note
This is a clear attempt to rig the election.
The CoC is using the same divide and rule tactics, used by the right the world over.
They are 'othering' There is us. And THEM.
THEM. The lazy, disengaged dropkicks are the ones affected, so who cares about THEM.
Unfortunately, it works. Tribalism is alive and well. Othering and dehumanising is a right wing tactic dividing us against Maori, immigrants, you name it. And now, dropkicks who don't bother to register early.
United we stand, divided we fall.