Taihoa on AUKUS Pillar 2
Andrew Little says our government is willing to “explore” participating in AUKUS Pillar 2, but “foreign or local voices would not be a factor.” Our leaders will decide he says. I say “taihoa.”
International
defence
The Drums of War – Again
On 20 March 2003 the US invaded Iraq, on the basis that it had and could use weapons of mass destruction. That was a lie. Australia joined President Bush ‘coalition of the willing’, New Zealand did not. The drums of war beat strong then, they are doing so again now. This time China is the target.
The Zelensky Dump
Vladimir Zelensky’s message to the New Zealand Parliament will be delivered in the last week before Christmas, in the bury-it time-slot. That seems appropriate, for much has changed since the heady days when our Parliament went straight for sanctions on Russia without discussion.
Militarising the Pacific
The Solomons Islands security agreement with China led to paroxysms of ‘serious concern’ about militarisation of the Pacific. 3 days before the Pacific Island Forum convened, 4 US B-2 nuclear-capable stealth bombers deployed on rotation into Australia. I know what worries me most.
Should our future lie with NATO?
Not content to stay in the North Atlantic, NATO is shortly about to reveal in Madrid its next ten-year plan to contain China. Jacinda Ardern will be there, who knows why. Are we nailing our colours to a flag at half-mast?
India Rises
Why is India such a world player right now?
The Natives are Getting Uppity
Jacinda Ardern is “gravely concerned.” Peeni Henare was ‘”caught off-guard.”. Barnaby Joyce feels “intimidated.” Solomon Islands PM Sogavare found it “insulting to be branded as unfit to manage our sovereign affairs.” I think he is right.
Global Britain fell with Singapore
Today February 15th is the 80th anniversary of the fall of Singapore in 1942, described by many as Britain’s worst military disaster. It was a massive strategic fail, and its effect is still powerful today, most notably with Australia’s lockstep with the US. Current British strategists don’t seem to have learnt a thing.
CPTPP V Nuclear Submarines
In a piece of incredible timing, on the same day as Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom announced their defence technology procurement pact and pissed off ally and competitor alike, China formally applied to join the Comprehensive and Porgressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
The Top 20 Biggest U.S. Military Interventions, Best to Worst
With the last flights coming out of Kabul, it’s time to review whether this US attitude to the world is a good idea.
Are we really ready to escalate to war with China over Taiwan?
“What will the role of New Zealand be should China invade Taiwan?” was by far the most popular question for Jacinda Ardern after […]
Britain’s tin-ear ’tilt’ to the Indo-Pacific
In its new integrated defence and foreign policy strategy, Britain intends to raise its nuclear warheads on Trident from 180 to 240. What a waste. It also intends to “tilt” to the Indo-Pacific, sending the New HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier here later in the year to give a message to China. It should read its history.
We must resist US pressure on China that could lead to war
In February 2002 I was at a union-NDP conference in Ottawa watching US television in my hotel room. Back home I reported on the conference to the Labour Party caucus and stated as an aside that the US was going to war with Iraq. Helen Clark stood up straightaway and said “we won’t be going with them.” Jacinda Ardern needs to do the same now.
Reasons to abandon NZ’s Five-Eyed Folly
Wayne Brown’s recent suggestion “Is it time to sell our seat on FiveEyes?” is from someone well placed by experience to form an educated opinion. “Trade sanctions of the type Australia is facing are a weapon used by both USA and China. So let’s have a debate on whether we need Five Eyes, or whether it’s time for us to trade on independently.”
The NZ Defence Force and extreme fire events
This Guest Post by The Scud looks at the issues with the NZ Defence Force’s capability in responding to extreme fire events and climate change.
Brady under review by Canterbury University
Canterbury University is conducting a review of statements made to the Justice Select Committee by Professor Anne-Marie Brady alleging covert military transfer to China which complainants from other Universities under attack said “contained manifest errors of fact and misleading inferences.” The University would do well to broaden its review to encompass the NATO-funded Canterbury SSANSE which Brady heads. The military-purpose link there is explicit.
Operation Burnham: A disorganised cover-up?
A justified operation, no organised cover-up, but serious failures in senior defence personnel’s denial and misrepresentation, and serious failures by the intelligence agencies in handing over a suspect to torture. The Inquiry called for a review of Defence administration, an Inspector-General of Defence, a Defence Force order on dealing with allegations of civilian casualties, and an “effective detention policy.”
Payne snubs Pompeo on China regime change
Australia’s Foreign Minister Marise Payne and Defence Minister Linda Reynolds traveled to the US this week to meet face-to-face with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Minister Mark Esper. In what was clearly meant as a follow-up to recent speeches on China by the Americans, Payne firmly declined to join Pompeo in in his call for regime change in China.
Looking the wrong way? The SIS in New Zealand
Richard Northey and Nicky Hager will discuss their experiences with the SIS over the past thirty-five years, what they reveal about the agency’s values and culture, and what we might want to see in the forthcoming review of the intelligence and security agencies post the Christchurch mosque massacre. St Andrews Church, The Terrace, Wellington, Friday 3 July 5:30pm. All welcome, register here.
Get out now
General Soleimani was visiting Iraq at the request of the Iraqi Prime Minister to discuss mediation between the US and Iran. Following his assassination by the US the Iraqi Parliament has voted to ask all foreign troops to leave the country. New Zealand’s remaining troops should bring forward their scheduled departure and leave immediately.
Trump sacks Bolton – oil price nosedives!
This has been rumoured for some time now. It’s good news – peace now has a chance, as Trump has woken up to the fact that a shooting war would not be good for his re-election. Also Bolton’s hard-line strategy was failing everywhere.
Missile test shows US bad faith on INF Treaty
US’s recent test of an intermediate range missile shows that the reasons given for its withdrawal from the INF treaty were spurious. It also shows up the gullibility of our MFAT, who voted against a Russian proposal for dialogue late last year in the UN on the grounds that it was a “sidestep.”
Nuclear chickens coming home?
The Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty between the United State and Russia signed by Reagan and Gorbachev in 1987 formally ended on August 2nd. On Sunday the new US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper dined privately with Winston Peters. Before and during his trip to the Pacific, Mark Esper called for placement of intermediate-range US missiles in Asia.
Peters, Pence, Pompeo and the Rapture
Hamish Rutherfurd writes that Winston Peters’ trip to the US to secure a trade deal is far-fetched and a waste of time. I agree. But if Peters has his agenda, so will Mike Pompeo, Mike Pence, John Bolton and Dan Coats have theirs. He was scheduled to meet them all. No wonder the 9th floor are worried.
The Brady Papers
Anne-Marie Brady submitted to yesterday’s Select Committee Inquiry into foreign interference in our elections, making copious reference to her “Magic Weapons” paper of 2017. She didn’t mention another paper which casts a much different light on her independence and purpose
Peters to Pence on the Pacific – a return to colonialism?
Winston Peters went to Washington last December to see US VP Mike Pence and invited the US to engage more in the South-West Pacific without informing Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Patrick Smellie described this apparent oversight as “deeply worrying.” Even more worrying is what Peters said when he was there.
Elizabeth Warren and Foreign Policy
An analysis of recent public comments made by Elizabeth Warren and the possible implications for New Zealand of a Warren Presidency.
Should we defend global institutions?
With the world facing environmental, economic and social crises now more than ever before is a time for strong international institutions.
Trump meets Putin
Some things that President Trump won’t do as when meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki.
Evidence-based foreign policy
In the second stage of a false flag attack, facts go out the window and the sole issue becomes “are you for us or against us.” Our media and National Party politicians are well into this stage in the Skripal affair. But as questions mount and skeptics proliferate from all sides, Jacinda Ardern and Winston Peters may well be wiser than media advisers by not following blindly the western herd. 26 countries is not the whole world. Update: Porton Down unable to establish Novichok of Russian origin.
What are our SAS up to? An easy to digest guide!
A short video looking at the major issues in the Hager/Stephenson book ‘Hit and Run’
Hager Hit & Run and NZ’s Asian wars
Nicky Hager will talk about his book Hit and Run, and the issues it raises about New Zealand’s values and role in the world at 5:30pm on Wednesday 7th June at Connolly Hall, Guildford Terrace, Wellington. The book is about important events and the incoherence of New Zealand fighting it’s longest ever war in Central Asia. This talk is particularly timely in view of this week’s visit of the American Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson.
How to rescue Trump – and make up with Putin
What can the U.S. security collective do to work with their government and achieve something positive with Donald Trump?
Kansas ANZUS.
What to do when your erstwhile ally loses the plot?
Military assessment of climate change
Guardian: “Unchecked global warming is greatest threat to 21st-century security where mass migration could be ‘new normal’, say senior military”.
I’m a Muslim, an Immigrant and I voted Trump
Take a deep breath and transcend your fear.