Watching the coalition ‘partners’ over the last week or two has made it quite apparent that they are writhing in agony within their ‘coalition’. It is pretty hard to see how their warring factions of the right can work together constructively in another government. Which probably explains the almost complete policy deadlocks that have been apparent in cabinet and legislation over this past term.
Over the last week, has had a clear demonstration of this, as the right has been tearing at themselves with schemes trying to get a overhang. Which is entirely orientated towards, as Richard Harman pointed out, competition over cabinet posts. In Politik Today (email only) this morning, he wrote “The right’s plot to take over the government” which puts the perspective on the current overhang foolishness.
The so-called Overhang strategy has one important by-product. The higher the party vote ACT and NZ First get the more Cabinet Ministers they would be likely to get and, conversely, the fewer Cabinet Ministers National would have.
In other words, the two smaller parties together could dominate the Cabinet.
That is surely why the campaign is receiving such strong support from people like Don Brash (Hobson’s Pledge) and ACT itself.
Yesterday ACT gave the game away.
This is particular shows up in Epsom, which National via John Key effectively gifted the seat and Act’s political survival by asking their voters to give their party vote to Act and to party vote National in 2011 when Act was on 1.07% in the poll. The National sheeple in Epsom have been steadily following that policy ever since.
Now Paul Goldsmith, the resident hagiographer of the National party, who is facing a high probability of neither getting on the list nor winning the Epsom seat. So he and John Key have asked National party voters to vote for him as their local MP in Epsom. That is so that he can remain as a largely colourless but vaguely competent holder of Minister of Justice and other posts in cabinet. Act has been polling above 10% and presumably is capable of standing on their own feet. However that isn’t how Act sees it.
As the resident parliamentary party of the completely greedy and selfish arseholes, the Act response has been to characteristically shit all over the chances of the right winning the government benches.
They’re directing that National supporters to ignore that they have been voting for a reliable partner for National in government for decades, and to vote for Act itself. Hardly something that Act has deserved as they have looked more like hyenas than cooperative partners with different opinions. Of course NZ First hasn’t been any better, but they don’t have a chance at any electorate seats, so it is moot point.
I suspect that Act is going to find out that the voters of the centre in Epsom and Tamaki are going to find this spectable somewhat abhorrent and will be voting in less of a sheeple mode. I can’t imagine that Act directing them is going to do anything more than piss them off.
What has been notable in NZ politics since the disasters of the first MMP partliament elected in 1996, is that Epsom was the sole successful working example of strategic voting. Probably due to the makeup of the Epsom electorate. It has always seemed to have an abnormally high proportion of company directors, finance bunnies of various types, professions in involved in property transactions, and various kinds of accountants. Demographic groups that can be convinced by numbers about how to maximise returns to themselves. However they are also groups who in their professional lives rely on probity. A word that it’d be hard to argue that any Act politicians have any real understanding of.
The only forward momentum in government over the last term has been entirely negative. About the only clear direction has been in getting rid of what cabinet agreed that they disagreed with in previous Labour government policy. But it has been replaced with fuck-all and a morass of inadequate and ineffectual responses.
For instance, the replacement of three waters infrastructure rebuild with a completely under-funded and aborted plan to force a conglomeration of local bodies. Coupled with a centrally imposed cap on rates that prevents almost all water infrastructure upgrades. This is a classic case of the parties of the right not wanting to make decisions, and sticking their party up the arses of other parties in a blame game – while hoping the problem will go away if they don’t look at it.
So over the past few weeks, this has resulted in a massive volatility in the polls. Part of that caused by the segregation in the methods of polling since landlines and listed phone numbers became extinct. Also the large numbers of undecided in earlier polls finally making a decision.
Many of those will have being making a decision based on the unseemly behaviour on the right, and the relative calm on the left – and figuring out who’d they prefer to make up their government. Of course the clumsy way that this past government tried to discourage voting with its disenfranchisement legislation will have pissed off not only those that they have prevented from voting, but also a large number of people who always vote.
Based on the very early and high turnout, it is going to be a very interesting election. I suspect this is an election that is going to be all about getting a stable government that can actually do work. Rather than what got voted for in 2023 – an multi-headed opposition that has been more concerned with cabinet posts and PR opportunities rather than working on problems.
Meanwhile on the left, there are muted suggestions of why people might want to throw their vote in particular directions in particular directions. I see that weka has put one up today. But it is a far more cooperative atmosphere from the overall left – Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori, and even that enigma of the Opportunity party
The only 'plan' is plunder, thank god they weren't as effective as keys crew were due to general incompetence and the act/nzf tail wagging this dog of a government.