Open mike 03/03/2011
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English on Working for Families
English on Working for Families cuts: “around 1,000 families earning over $100,000 receive WFF, and payments to those families total only $1.1 million … Taking higher-income families out of WFF saves very little money …
In this uncertain economic climate, we want to give all families certainty about their incomes”
Christchurch Quake — More action needed in Eastern Suburbs right now
It’s 2am and, like many people in Christchurch, I am not sleeping too well just now. But at least we now have power, so I can use the time productively. My personal history of the past week will have to wait. It may be interesting to some, but it’s not important right now. What’s important is what is is NOT happening adequately in the acute post-quake period, because the official response is dwarfed by the size of the problem.
Powerless
The man tipped to be National’s next leader, Simon Power, has announced he will not be standing at the next election. The reasons are obvious. As a decent man and an old fashioned caring Tory, Power has no heart for the direction National want to take New Zealand. His resignation is a sign that within the party, the dry right have finally taken total control the idealogical reigns and there is no longer a place for liberal wets like Power.
Shock Retirement
Simon Power is not going to stand for re-election in November.
The knife edge
To get enough oil for global demand requires expensive technologies, and expending more energy. If the price is too low those investments won’t be feasible, meaning not enough production. But too high and the world can’t afford it and we enter global recession. The ‘goldilocks’ in the middle is shrinking, to a knife edge. It’s the same story with food and metals.
The art of political prediction
Make enough predictions and some of them will turn out to be true. Here are two fine examples of the art of political prediction which reach completely opposite conclusions. Take your pick…
Open mike 02/03/2011
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The Shock Doctrine
I’m really pissed off that politics has come into the Christchurch earthquake so quickly. But make no mistake, the Nats are pursuing a strongly ideological agenda. They’re using the quake as cover for radically cutting important policies and making other extreme decisions, while preserving the tax cuts for the rich. It’s called the Shock Doctrine.
No-fly zone for Libya
NATO leaders are discussing a no-fly zone over Libya to prevent the crumbling Gaddafi regime bombing and strafing protesters. Gaddafi’s loyalists are tied up keeping Tripoli under control, and the opposition is preparing to send in troops. Meanwhile, the big question elsewhere in the Arab world is what will happen on Saudi Arabia’s March 11, ‘Day of Rage’?
Govt must lead Chch rebuild
The government’s wage subsidy and universal redundancy for quake-affected workers is a start. But with 750 red-stickered buildings in the CBD alone and 200+ jobs already lost, it is just a start. The private sector won’t rebuild without demand, that will have to be supplied by the government upping its spending, and that needs to be paid for.
A Reassuring Rebuild: The Freiburg Parallel
Christchurch has been called “Victorian planning at its most remarkable”. It needs to be rebuilt in a style that retains or even amplifies as much of its formerly cosy, reassuring character as possible, for the sake of the tourism industry, the locals, and its cultural legacy. Germany’s Freiburg is a useful example of restoring a city to former glory.
Quarter of a million comments soon
As of Tuesday morning, we have had about 249,250 comments since The Standard launched three and a half years ago. We’re averaging a 317 comments a day since New Year’s. Although politics has rightly cooled in the past week due to the quake, the quarter of a million mark should still be reached on Thursday. Who will be the lucky commenter?
Two minutes silence
Today at 12:51 pm marks exactly one week since the earthquake struck, and probably around 300 people lost their lives. PM John Key has called on the country to observe 2 minutes silence, starting at that time, to honour the victims of the quake.
Open mike 01/03/2011
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Universal Income Revisited
The tax system we currently have is a relic of the pre-IT age. In the days of manual clerk-handled accounts, it was impractical […]
Tapu Misa: Right On
Tapu Misa’s latest piece in the Herald is just so right I can’t really add anything to it. She nicely sums up the Welfare Working Group’s message: “We’re not saying it’s your fault you can’t get a job. We’re just saying you’re a malingering freeloader who’s not trying hard enough.”
Rebuilding choices reveal govt priorities
Unless a leader is horribly neglectful in the wake of a disaster, like Bush after Katrina, I don’t think there is any grounds to criticise them for the immediate disaster response, which is largely out of their hands anyway. But the policy response that follows is a legitimate topic for political debate. And I’m worried about Key’s.
Christchurch power chart
They are doing pretty well on restoring the power. With the exception of some small outlying areas, along the strike line and the CBD most of the city has power again as you can see from this chart. At a guess it will probably take some time on the major remaining areas simply because these are the areas that had the most vertical acceleration during the quake.
Seismic events in Christchurch, food & fuel
Concurrently Christchurch’s second big quake, the effects of two other shocks are beginning to ripple through our country. Food prices are putting basics out of reach and this week will see another big petrol price hike. All three of these shocks will require us to pool our resources and redirect them to rebuilding resiliently.
Some personal reflections on the quake
There’s been lots of good stuff written on the quake, I’m not going to try to add to it in any systematic way. These are just a few random personal reflections from inside the disaster zone, big picture and small, all that I can put my head around writing tonight.
Open mike 28/02/2011
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Welfare reforms will drive wages down
The coming welfare reform is less a welfare policy and more another industrial relations policy in drag.
That’s because it won’t just be beneficiaries that suffer under this new regime but the majority of Kiwi workers too.
Open mike 27/02/2011
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The quake: media coverage and leadership
Apart from Radio New Zealand, which is doing an excellent job as our public broadcaster, and The Press, the media’s coverage of the quake has disappointed. Supplying needed information has been a secondary priority behind the morbid running death count and Facebook-derived stories of the dead. Also: a response to Armstrong’s quake-article.
Tax policy for economic stimulus and growth
Last week, Treasury issued a press statement saying it had commissioned research on the impact of governments’ fiscal stimulus packages, now published in the influential publication the Economic Journal. One article, “Tax policy for economic stimulus and growth”, had this to say:
Open mike 26/02/2011
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I have to (reluctantly) support Whaleoil on a course of action.
It is with a great deal of reluctance that I have to actually support Whaleoil on a post about a rather obnoxious website blaming the Christchurch quake on ‘depravity’. He actually proposes a course of action that has a good chance of getting rid of this offensive site. Of course being Whaleoil some of his other statements are just stomach churning.
The Domino recessions
I read a book a while back that was set in the near future after what it called the ‘Domino recessions’ – successive oil shocks had created a series of economic and political crises, each one before the world had recovered from the previous recession. As the second oil shock in three years hits, that scenario looks to be coming to true.
In praise of resilient communities
We hear a lot of, frankly, trite comments in times of disaster about how the people affected are ‘tough’ and a special breed. People are people. But communities can be more resilient in the face of disaster if they have existing civil society organisations to rally around and help coordinate their actions. Canterbury Students’ Association is a perfect example.
Open mike 25/02/2011
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Rebuilding
Frustration had rightly been growing at the lacklustre leadership of the recovery from Christchurch’s September earthquake. Obviously, this new quake is going to require a whole new level of energy and resource. I don’t think the government will be so negligent as to go at this half-arsed or half-cocked. Here’s some things it can do.
The accelerations of the quake
When I looked at Geonet this morning, I found this image mapping the velocity of the earth movements in the 6.3 magnitude Lyttelton quake. It is astonishing.
With ground accelerations of up to 220% of earths gravity measured near the epicentre and 80% of gravity around the central business district it would have clearly exceeded the design specifications of many buildings.
Everything is a lie
There’s a hard truth to NZ politics at the moment. It’s not one people like to think about.
But it helps to be reminded every now and then: everything is a lie.
Open mike 24/02/2011
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In praise of the bureaucracy
The Civil Defence centre, the police, the ambulance services, the firemen, the hospitals, the army, the search and rescue specialists, the social services – they’re all part of the bureaucracy, as are all those who provide their back office support.
They don’t get a great press and are often described collectively as a block to progress. They’re not called public servants for nothing. Thank God they’re there when we need them.