Warning bells ringing for Nats

On Thursday Vernon Small wrote on the Chch East by-election: “Anything above 53 per cent will look like a fine result for Labour, anything under 50 per cent a relative failure. If Doocey can attract 40 per cent of the vote National can be well-pleased. Less than 33 per cent and the warning bells will be ringing for 2014.” And we know what happened next.

Christchurch East by election

Updates to follow. Williams leads  by 1978 3,124 votes, on 30% 83% of the votes counted. Poto looking good!  96% of the vote.  I’m calling it!  Williams by 4000+ votes!  Congratulations Poto! 100% votes counted now: Williams by 4,613 votes.

The Christchurch East by election gets weird

The Christchurch East by election is getting really weird.  We have a National candidate who does not turn up to possibly the most important public meeting of the campaign, a spot of petty vandalism committed using a National MP’s van, a conservative party candidate who implies that legs on a billboard are his when they are not, a conservative party leader who does not rule out the possibility of chemtrails existing despite there being no supporting evidence while denying anthropogenic climate change when there is an abundance of evidence in support and Labour and the Greens contesting kindred votes when strategic voting could produce a positive result.

Confused?

National’s head in the silt on Christchurch East

In Christchurch East National is up and running in the by election, well sort of.  A contributor points out that the National candidate, Matthew Doocey has not referred to the most pressing issues for the residents of Christchurch East, dealing with the EQC and the Insurance companies and the cost of housing.

6 for Christchurch East

Labour yesterday announced the 6 candidates standing for selection to be the Christchurch East candidate in the impending by-election. All are locals, and there’s no Clayton Cosgrove despite early rumour-mongering. It looks a talented list.

Maori Party finished?

Gotta love the reporting of the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by election. This was a boring, predictable win for Labour, a big upset win for Mana, and probably the death knell of the Maori Party.

Update: Native Affairs has unconfirmed reports that Sharples has stood down as leader of the Maori Party.

Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election round-up

Four contenders with excellent track records. Some important issues for the electorate have been highlighted, especially related to poverty, jobs, education, and affordable housing. Some commentators claim tomorrow’s by-election will be a test of this or that party’s strength.[update: RNZ interviews]

Christchurch East maneuvering

So it looks like Labour’s Christchurch East candidate when Lianne Dalziel steps down will be either Clayton Cosgrove or James Caygill. The first question you ask is ‘why wouldn’t Clayton just stand in Waimakiriri again?’. He’s won it 4 of 5 attempts and Wilkinson only has a 600 majority. A slight swing will win it for him again, why give that up? The answer is troubling.

Campaign heroics or hubris?

I was impressed by this press statement from the Mana Party on the ground in the Ikaroa Rawhiti by-election reporting that they door-knocked […]