My OIA request for the Police file of their investigation into Banks’ anonymous donations arrived today. John Key had said the law would be changed if “they could find the time.” Today David Carter found the time to say the law will be tightened before the 2013 elections.It will be very important that all the lessons from this sorry affair can be properly considered at select committee.
We’re just days away from the end of public consultation on the MMP Review, and this week is your last chance make a submission on the Proposals Paper. You can make your submission online or via email to mmpreview@elections.govt.nz
Key has gone for a gamble again; but not the gamble some of the pundits were expecting. On the asset sales, he’s chosen flight over fight. But the real problem the asset sales face now isn’t Maori action, it’s the state of the economy.
Depress turnout among low-income voters by changing the enrolment rules – it’s an old right-wing trick. The Republicans are doing it in the US – it looks like National may try it on here. They should not succeed.
The excellent Andrew Geddis at Pundit has an interesting post up this morning. You should head on over there and check it out. Here are a couple of extracts to get you started…
Frank Macskasy over at Frankly Speaking writes some very long posts that are often full of interesting information. This one does a good analysis of the recommendations from the Electoral Commission and various party positions on it. On the way through he has a good swipe at John Banks, who it would be safe to say, he considers to be political cabbage.
Lowering the threshold to 4% is a step in the right direction but why not go further? Getting rid of coattailing is negative in theory but in practice could stop anti-democratic gaming by major parties protecting tiny client parties. Abolishing overhangs is bad – it just increases disproportionality for parties with strong electorate support vs party support – ie the Maori Party.
The first proposal paper from the Electoral Commission on the MMP review is due out soon.
Updated with the early coverage.
There’s some interesting speculation that the Government could collapse within months. The theory goes that the Government could lose its majority due to 1) the Maori Party walking away over the water rights issue and 2) John Banks being forced to resign over illegally anonymised donations in the 2010 Auckland mayoral election. I don’t see it happening, yet.
The Police have concluded their investigation into John Banks’ donations to his 2010 mayoral campaign. The Police legal section will now decide whether or not to prosecute. There are two tests; the evidential test and the public interest test. There is no question that if the evidence is sufficient, prosecution is in the public interest. It comes down to credibility – best decided in court.
You know how the Greek’s have this weird ‘winner’s bonus’ – 250 seats are proportionally allocated but the largest, and even by one vote gets another 50 seats. The rightwing got the bonus by a couple of percent over SYRIZA by screwing the scrum. How? By merging New Democracy and a small rightwing party – the Democratic Alliance. Only this allowed ND/DISY to beat SYRIZA. That trick, and PASOK going over to the right will allow a 40% coalition to govern with a majority.
Today is the last day for submissions to the MMP Review.
If you haven’t done so yet, make sure your have your say – it only takes 5 minutes for the short submission.
The media are doing a good job investigating John Banks’ donation history. The Police are presumably also doing theirs, and it seems clear that the matter must end up in Court and the issue of who is telling the truth will be decided by a judge. Some in the media have dismissed the question of any threat to National’s majority. Short-term maybe, long-term I’m not so sure.
Slippery old Key said on Monday and Tuesday that he had to apply a legal test to whether John Banks should stay on as a minister. The Cabinet manual demands the highest ethical standards. Now, Key’s flip-flopped: ethics are required – but only after one becomes a minister. Which would be worrying if true. Pansy Wong won’t be the only one to note Key’s standards a slipping.
A by-election in Epsom. If ACT or National win, the Right retains 61 votes. But, between resignation and swearing in typically takes 3 months during which the Right would have 60 v 60. Legislation fails on draws. Asset sales, SkyCity, welfare cuts, even the Budget could all fail if the Maori Party wants. And what if the Conservatives win? They’re anti-asset sales and crony capitalism. You can see why Key is turning a blind eye.
According to 3 News, Kim Dotcom paid cheques into John Banks’ campaign account in Queenstown. Duncan Garner says this would show up on Banks’ bank records as “anonymous”. So how did Kim Dotcom get TeamBanksie’s account number? Two days after he had had a lunch meeting with Banks.
More questions for the Police to ask and Banks to answer.
Campbell Live showed us pictures of the Cheques by which Kim Dotcom’s company Megastuff made donations to Team Banksie 2010. How can John Banks argue that the two donations of $25,000 from Kim Dotcom’s company Megastuff Limited are anonymous when the company name is on the cheque? You could look up their address on the website. Game over, John and John.
David Cameron’s defence of embattled Culture Secretary Jeremy Hunt has been called a “firewall” that’s failing to hold.
Cameron needs Hunt to stay or else Cameron is the next to go. It is the same for John Key.
As the stench of corruption around John Banks grows, he desperately needs him to stay or else all he loses legitimacy for asset sales and potentially his majority on the issue as well.
Party donations for the 2011 general election will be published on Tuesday . One new provision in the Act provides for the declaration of the number of donations in two bands; $1500 to $5,000, and up to $15,000. It will be very interesting to see the number of upper level donations in National and ACT particularly. They could hide Banks-type split donations from asset-sale backers.
Many commentators have interpreted David Shearer’s recent speech as signaling a “move to the right”. I think it’s too early to tell. But if it’s true, I think it’s good news for lefties…
The option that most eligible voters in NZ supported in 2011 was “don’t vote”. Nearly 7% didn’t enroll, and if enrolled then more than 25% didn’t vote. Of the eligible voters from the 2006 census, over 30% didn’t vote at all. And since 2006 the voting population has almost certainly increased. It means that National’s large vote is probably less than the biggest “party”. Not a particularly good mandate unless you’re as deluded as John Key.
Lower the threshold and reduce wasted vote; leave it at 2-3% to make it less likely multiple one-man bands hold balance of power. Stop winning an electorate being a route to getting list seats; eliminate most dirty deals. Let List MPs run in by-elections and people stand both in seats and on lists; banning these would result in undesirable tactics from parties.
You may have noticed the ads about The Standard for the MMP Review that the Electoral Commission announced yesterday.
Now’s your chance to have your say on what MMP will look like in the future.
There was some pretty low-grade reporting on the Waitakere race that suggested some kind of organised voter fraud may have taken place. Under the title Questions over Waitakere vote, the Herald reporter said 9 dual votes had been found and 393 special votes had been cast by people not enrolled to vote. But that’s not evidence of foul play: it’s par for the course.
Some people reckon that if you run as an electorate candidate and lose you shouldn’t be allowed to go in as a list MP. You’re ‘not wanted’. But that doesn’t make sense. Some electorate MPs won with 6,000-8,000 votes, while 19 list MPs won more votes than that in losing an electorate race. Besides, not all constituencies are geographic. NRT elaborates:
Official Election results are out. Carmel Sepuloni takes Waitakere back for Labour by 11 votes, and National loses one seat to the Greens. MMP wins by a mile. Well done Carmel – I’m really glad she stays in Parliament. I don’t think a recount will change anything – I scrutineered the official count last election and the people doing it were very very careful.
I ran David Shearer’s campaign headquarters in the 2009 Mt Albert by-election. That gave me unique perspective to get a good hard look […]
I see that the Nats in drag anti-MMP campaign have brought space on our banner. Now I know the mood of the authors on this subject. They’d like MMP with tweaks – which will happen in 2014.
I looked at the anti’s pathetic ad, and decided that it was more effective to take their money, counter it (like the Standards enhanced logo?) and comment on it.
The Herald reports CEOs are moaning that MMP won’t let them ram through unpopular policies. I can’t think of a better reason to vote MMP.
Campaign for MMP has recently started selling T-shirts as part of their campaign fundraising.
Their “Keep Calm and Vote MMP” T-shirts are a very reasonably priced $40 and come in a stylish black.
Keep MMP are having their campaign launch in Auckland this Friday.
Launch in the morning at Wynyard Quarter; Party in the evening on K Rd.
Get along, have fun, and show your support. Make sure all our votes count.
Just why is it that the anti-MMP crowd only complain about small parties having too much power when those parties are the Greens?
Queen of Thorns has a few thoughts on the matter…
RNZ’s Insight is hosting a debate on the Electoral System Referendum in Wellington. It’s an excellent panel. If you want to be part of the audience, get along to Te Papa’s Sounding’s Theatre at 6pm next Wednesday, October 26.
The Broadcasting Standards Authority has decided that Key’s hour-long promotional programme on RadioLive was not an election programme.
It will now be very interesting to see what the Electoral Commission decides in relation to advertising complaints.
Key’s staff spun to media that his Radio Live show was ok if he didn’t discuss politics, saying the station had received advice from the Electoral Commission that “political content’ could breach rules. That didn’t sound right to me, so I asked the Commission what they actually said.
The Campaign for MMP has a series of vids that we’ll be running. This one looks at how MMP has lifted the representation of women in Parliament. Makes you wonder about the people who want to send us backwards. By the by, due the paucity of women on National and ACT’s lists, the next Parliament is likely be to be first since 1978 to see the number of women decrease.
