The latest unemployment statistics came out yesterday, just in time for people to digest and consider when they’re voting.
The bottom line is that unemployment has become worse, and has risen to a new high of 5.7% of the workforce.
Unemployment is one of National’s biggest weaknesses; they are legendary for not caring about workers or ordinary people. The strong impression they give is that they prefer unemployment, that way they can to put pressure downwards on wages so that their supporters do not have to pay so much.
Having a big pool of unemployment is one of the best ways of putting downward pressure on wages.
But National never says this out loud. Insteads it promises flowers and a pony for everyone. Full employment is just around the corner, just as soon as trickledown works.
Unfortunately trickledown has not worked yet, despite 40 years of intensive trying.
National’s recent spin is to claim that 220,000 jobs will be created in the near future. The figure presupposes GDP growth of 2.7% per annum. Population growth is part of this and if it is not factored in GDP growth per person is just over half of the amount needed.
The claim is jarring when the latest unemployment figures are considered.
From Gyles Beckford at Radio New Zealand:
Unemployment rose to its highest level in nearly 11 years as the economy shed jobs, and there are signs some people may have stopped looking for work.
Stats NZ said the unemployment rate was 5.7 percent in the three months ended September, up from 5.6 percent in the previous quarter.
A total of 174,000 people were unemployed, a rise of 3000 on the previous quarter and 14,000 higher than a year ago.
The data was above most forecasts.
Unemployment has held at decade highs as businesses have generally held on to staff, but been cautious about hiring because of weak demand and higher costs.
The numbers also showed a marked rise in the number of long term unemployed – those out of work for a year or more – making up about 21.5 percent of the total, and the highest since mid-1994.
True to form, Nicola Willis tried to claim that it was because it was all Labour’s fault.
If, God forbid, National was still in power in 10 years’ time, I could imagine Nicola Willis still trying to blame the 2017 to 2023 Labour government for the economic calamity that they had led us into by then, but such is National Party politics.
And Labour always drives unemployment down. When Labour took over the unemployment rate was 4.9%. By 2023 it was 3.7% and then rose to 4.7% in this Government’s first year.
When people go to the polls on Saturday, they should remember that this government does not give a damn about their employment prospects, that it thrives on unemployment being as high as possible, that its claims are completely illusory and that its indifference is essentially cruelty.
Unemployment rate hit a low in the Dec 2021 quarter at 3.2%. When the change of government occurred at the end of 2023 it was 4.0%. So labour is also responsible for increased unemployment.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/unemployment-rate/
Still higher than the 4.5% in December 2017 when they took office.
Cyclone Gabrielle had a big part to play in that, alongside the other weather events that occurred both before and after. The wiping out of orchard blocks meant no season for parts of the country (Hawkes Bay and Gisborne hit the hardest with that. This flowed on to the lack of early seasonal work the next season as well.
National and Treasury are wedded to that great NZ invention The Phillips curve with the modified Nairu revision. Their forecasting is pretty shit.
Must be a very small pond you swim in if you're going to turn up with that weak effort and try be the shark.
Just to add to the misery… Monetary Policy Statement Sep 2026
Table 6.5 on page 54 has forecast CPI and LCI (labour costs):
If this ends up being accurate, there will be a real pay cut and then stagnation of wages vs inflation as an average across the economy (individual experiences may vary…).
Unemployment Let's blame it on the 27 registered banks in NZAO taking money away from the veins that it should be circulating in, near the working hands and feet of active people! Why should we have unemployment? We are living in a modern economy and have academics coming out of our ears, studying and passing on information and theories for centuries; so many professionals of all types that they are falling out of our upper domes that we call heads, that enclose what we call brains.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2611/S00026/rbnz-registers-revolut-as-a-bank-in-new-zealand.htm
…Revolut NZ has been operating in New Zealand as a financial services provider since July 2023. With today’s registration, Revolut NZ becomes the 27th registered bank in New Zealand.
Director of Specialist Supervision, Scott McKinnon, noted: “The Reserve Bank recognises the value that credible new entrants can bring to a competitive, resilient, inclusive, and efficient financial system, and we are pleased Revolut NZ has met the required standard for bank registration in New Zealand.”….
Oh blah blah. Sir Humphrey talks with one of the banking cabal. 3.08m
and Professor Moorad Choudhry: Banking lessons drawn from above: 9.07m – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNBfA63syG8
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361106904/public-service-chiefs-ordered-plan-9000-job-cuts-during-election-campaign
There first move if re-elected is to sack 9000 people,