The Northland Buy Election

Written By: notices and features - Date published: - 201 comments
Categories: john key, national - Tags: , ,

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The polling booths are closed and the count has begun. Will National lose one of its safest seats to the man National attacked and ridiculed in 2008?

Will this be the beginning of the end of the John Key reign? Will the good people of Northland judge that National’s reign is intellectually and ethically bankrupt and they no longer deserve support? Will the circumstances of Mike Sabin’s exit from Parliament, whatever they are, cause locals to shun the party that has represented Northland for many decades?

The first thing to look for is the results of the early votes which should be announced reasonably quickly.  There are a sizeable number of them, 13,089 in fact.  This is over 3,500 more than in the 2014 general election.  This may be indication of increased interest although it may reflect the amount of resources National has put into the campaign.

Today Cameron Slater claimed to have received a complaint from the Electoral Commission (donotlink link) and asked to take a number of articles down.  It is hard to imagine why.  But they seem to include all articles that mention Mike Sabin or Mark Osborne or Northland.  Funny that.

Stay tuned …

201 comments on “The Northland Buy Election”

Comment numbers have changed to permanent references. Older quoted numbers may no longer identify the same comment.

  2. 2

    Winston leading by 1,278 at 4197 to 2901 at 7521 total counted, 9.2% of booths.

    Assuming that’s the early voting coming it, it seems to favour Winston heavily.

      1. 3.2.1

        Nah, it is good for Wonston, and John Key. Winston gets the baubles of office he is addicted to, and Key gets to continue to lord it over us.

        What on Earth makes people think Winston will do anything other than foist himself upon the National led government?

        1. 3.2.1.1

          It would be better to have Winston tapping on the breaks on the donkey juggernaut, rather than not having such breaks at all.

        2. 3.2.1.2

          Wat baubles do you think Nat will offer him lurgee, given you are sure they will offer them and he will take them?

    3. 3.3

      As I look at it at 5:13 pm Brisbane time, I can see that the ACT voters didn’t take RImmer’s advice. They all still voted ACT.

  4. 4

    What do you think the chances are that Peters will do a deal with National if he wins like he did in 1996. I hope he doesn’t.

    1. 4.1

      ?

      Winston winning is not going to change the make-up of Parliament. He might negotiate on the RMA bill, but that’s about it.

      1. 4.1.1

        he will take the smug grin from the faces of the front bench of Gnacts .. then he will begin his real work. Winston is for NZ, not USA.

    2. 5.2

      The Tracy and Stacey show is floundering. Tracy Watkins has left to go meet print deadlines leaving Stacey Kirk to describe the progress, but Stacey seems to be having enormous difficulty writing ‘National is getting handed their hat’ 🙂

  7. 7

    A 3611 advance vote increase is immense for a byelection. That’s 138% of the 2014 general election. LPrent may have been right when he suggested that the advance would be around 50% of total votes; 26178 would be 75% of the 2014 turnout – which would be high for a byelection.

    My guess is that the early results (representing advance votes) will favour National, though NZF may take even these. I expect Peters to be ahead by 9pm (50% of today’s vote added to advance).

    1. 7.1

      The final turnout was 83.7% of the 2014 result (just shy of 30 thousand if specials are included, though some will prove to be invalid). 43.8% of these were advance votes.

      The commenting system was a bit glitchy this evening – but I imagine TS had a fair bit of traffic compared to an average Saturday! Congratulations and thanks to all in Northland.

  9. 9

    OK brother & sisters of the Standard here is the latest report from Russelll.

    Katie Bradford has just told me Peters is ahead by 1300 with 3℅ of votes counted. I’m on the piss with yyachting friends next to the Duke where Peters function is being held. At the rate i am drinking I will be staggering in to the invite only gig. Feeling a little special their is only about a 150 on the list.

      2. 9.1.2

        I don’t do water sorry. As is customary Peters is not here yet the crowd is nervous from 30 meters away. O’Brien waved to me and looks glum faced Katie B has gone to dolly up, Peters is 2000 ahead at 50 % coubted.

        More of my friends have turned up we are having much more fun. The thought of going to join what appears to be Tories ( walking by is off putting) anyway another drink has arrived, however I’d rather have a drink on tight Peters lol. OK I will get in there soon folks.

    2. 9.2

      Cool it mate. We’re counting on you to keep us up to date with EVERYTHING. Lay off the piss for a bit longer please… or is it too late. 🙁

  11. 11

    I cant get the Electoral Commission website to update figures .. anyone else having similar ? so where else to get figures ?

    1. 12.1

      thx de Withiel .. have that but the updating doesn’t change figures for me … will, watch Stuff until TV3 later I guess .. and here of course !

    1. 15.1

      Bloody marvelous ! Never doubted it ! Just proves how out of touch and over-spun Key et al truly are .. not a bloody clue. Yah sux boo to Crosby Textor … eat this. Now we can try to get NZ back, please !

  17. 17

    Anybody know where the early votes were cast. If there are a lot of south of Whangarei votes in it then possibly Nact are in real trouble?

  21. 21

    Right now, Key is calling Tony Abbott and asking him how he managed to survive the knives in the back…

    33% and a 1600 vote lead for Winston…

    1. 22.1

      I doubt very much if he will. Key, on the other hand, will almost definitely offer. I think Winnie will turn him down.

    2. 22.2

      nothing, why do you think they will offer? They have Rimmer and Hairspray. You tell us who key will remove from a post in favour of Peters, as you are so sure.

  24. 24

    As the reports come in with Winston so far ahead and the one I have just heard has Willow Jean Prime at just uner 700, I want to say that I think she has proved an excellent candidate saying all the right things and very staunch. She sounds a great find for Labour. I think there is a baby due in a while, and wish her well with that event and a period of consolidation of support building in the electorate. And I hope all goes well so she can stand again in 2017.

    1. 24.1

      You are so correct – a super lady and a real talent. has a new baby the wait until 2017 will be a good thing.

  28. 28

    This looks like a good old fashioned hiding. Wonder what made the good people of Northland vote this way?

    😀

    1. 28.1

      indignation for starters … fool me once, and all that …. just wonderful. 9000 majority at GE and now this loss ? Thank you Northland voters.

    2. 28.2

      Well I am in Northland and I want a fairer country – especially for the forgotton folk up here. Life opportunities are low here and up until now no one gives a dam. Poverty is never a good thing but even worse is disrespect.

    3. 28.3

      Surely the burning question is, why haven’t Labour been able to do the same as Winston?

      There is obviously dissatisfaction with National. But the dislike of Labour seems to be even stronger.

        1. 28.3.1.1

          You don’t think it is just a bit sad that we’re reduced to getting all excited about Winston Peters doing the job we’ve been totally incapable of doing?

          Without, it must be noted, disturbing a hair of his perfectly coiffured head.

          Key will doubtless recognise Peters – not Labour or the greens – as the real danger and ensure he is stuffed full of baubles before the end of the week.

          1. 28.3.1.1.1

            You do understand that Northland is a vERY TRADITIONAL RIGHT WING SEAT?

            It is unlikely anyone from the left would unseat National.

            Your comments throughout this thread are uninformed or deliberately inflaming.

      2. 28.3.2

        I don’t think this question is so much “burning” as it is “pointless”. Your second statement answers your initial question to a large extent. It’s historically a safe National seat, which means that many voters have two reflexes: 1. Vote National, 2. Don’t vote Labour.

        Peters is an old-school conservative, a Nat from three/four decades ago. In a case of heavy dissatisfaction with National, he offers an option that is palatable in ways (political and tribal) that voting a Labour candidate simply isn’t.

          1. 28.3.2.1.1

            If Winston Peters had got 54% of the nationwide vote, there might be reason to project the Northland experience across the wider electorate. Seeing has he didn’t, however, I’m really not seeing your point here.

            1. 28.3.2.1.1.1

              I didn’t suggest projecting your answer across the electorate, I suggested projecting the question.

              If the opposition as a whole could campaign across the country half as well as Winston has in Northland, they wouldn’t be in opposition.

              .

              1. 28.3.2.1.1.1.1

                I agree that the question of why Labour has gained so little traction with the wider electorate is worthy of asking, but it has been asked on here virtually every day for at least the last six years. I don’t think that Peters’ campaign will provide many insights, however, since elections rarely throw up the sort of perfect storm that this by-election did, and very few NZ politicians (i. e. one) are Winston Peters.

                1. 28.3.2.1.1.1.1.1

                  Yes indeed. I don’t think many would want to live in a world with more than one, in fact plenty find that number too high.

                  I think if there are lessons here they are that a little co-operation goes a long way, and that Key and Crosby/Textor are not frickin magic.

                  1. 28.3.2.1.1.1.1.1.1

                    and as you wrote, by understanding that the NZ electorate is a conservative one but Peter’s version of conservative is far more caring than the Nats version since 1984 (and I include Douglas, Prebble, Goff, Dunne and others in that )

          1. 28.3.2.2.1

            I imagine Peters’ added clout will make life difficult for both of the major parties. I think that its effect on this third-term National government will be more detrimental than it will be on a Labour opposition, however. After all, Labour, being in opposition, don’t have to take responsibility for anything. I’m not saying that I think that Peters’ success is a good thing per se. However, I do think that it presents a opportunity to Labour (or anybody in opposition), to the extent that it weakens Key’s image in the eyes of the public, a state of affairs that may snowball – especially if National continue to show such inept and panicky judgment as they appear to have done over the last few weeks.

          2. 28.3.2.2.2

            Given the only other realistic option was for osbourne to have won, what “political realities” do you think Northland and the nation would have been waking to this morning had that happened?

    1. 29.1

      Thanks freedom for the handly link. I feel that the other candidates should be praised for putting themselves forward and going through the election process when it was likely to be a three horse race at most.

  31. 31

    🙂 see Rob Painting stood on a Climate Ticket. Good on him. Rob is a regular correspondent and contributor on Sceptical Science specialising in Oceanography and the acidification of the oceans. Met him briefly at the Auckland Town Hall when James Hansen was visiting a couple of years back. Lovely guy. He would have had my vote, even though Winston needs to win this for the country.

    1. 31.1

      Winston is winning it for Winston. He wants to be Minister of something or other.

      Why do the left never, ever learn from history? This is the farce to the prior tragedy!

      1. 32.1.1

        It’s only a lie if you know it to be false at the time it is said. So a good 60% of the “lies” on Blips list immediately are disqualified; this would just be another one.

          1. 32.1.1.1.1

            Arrogant, and using the information he had available at that point – there had not yet been any polling done.

          2. 32.1.1.1.2

            Just another one of Key’s skewed opinions rather than a lie. Anyone with half a brain would know that it was at the best an educated guess, if that.

  35. 35

    looks like some of the bigger booths came in and they are mostly in the blue areas. Winston increases lead from them

    2. 36.2

      I was interested in the number of eligible voters in the electorate – I see on Radionz it is 45,000.

    1. 37.1

      I won’t be toasting a Peters’ victory. A Labour, Mana or Green victory, yes. But not one that is just going to extend John Key’s reign.

      Look, I know there is a desperate need to see the words “National defeated” in any context. But this result will change nothing and – given the comparative ease with which Peters has managed it – it raises some troubling questions about Labour’s utter inability to challenge Key.

      Sorry to spoil the party, but it isn’t our party. It is the party of Winston Peters, a self serving right wing demagogue. Nothing for progressives to celebrate here.

        1. 37.2.3.1

          Haeremai everything is kapai, Winston,
          You’re here at last, you’re really here at last.
          Haeremai not a cloud in the sky (yet)
          Throughout the land they want to hold your hand.
          You’re welcome as the sunshine
          You’re welcome as a king
          Pai kori this is fun time
          We’ll really have a fling.

  38. 38

    Osbourne hardly had the chance to speak during the campaign. I wonder if any of Key/Joyce/Bridges/Bennett are willing to do his conceding speech?

  39. 39

    Looks like the legendary National Party Machine isn’t quite all it’s cracked-up to be.

    Widespread speculation on the Blue-ness of the Early Votes appears to have been wrong. Angry rather than compliant Northlanders.

    1. 39.1

      It’s probably what happens when the opposition actually cooperates and stops acting like rabid dogs fighting over a piece of meat.

  40. 40

    I am fascinated by the factions in Nat head office and parliament. Can someone please explain the implications of this Nat disaster for the various wannabes.

  41. 41

    “Today Cameron Slater claimed to have received a complaint from the Electoral Commission and asked to take a number of articles down.”

    Well with his corrupt friends in high places gig the wailing boy-wonder should get a reply to his “we have OIAd who has laid the complaint” before Winston is declared winner.

    1. 42.1

      What strategy? The one that involved showing that Key and National are beatable, except by Labour?

      Enjoy your victory-by-proxy, because I think this is a long term disaster. It changes nothing, other than forcing Key and Peters to get used to working together, making it even less likely NZ First will look Labour’s way in 2017. And if we’re going to be stuck on 30% then, we’ll need the simpering glances of every coquette we can get.

    1. 43.1

      Snap. Am pleasantly surprised. It’s possible this election has generated more local attention than many seats in the general election.

    2. 43.2

      The Early March TV3 Reid Research Poll suggested almost half of 2014 Labour voters were already thinking of strategically voting Winston at that very early stage. The latest One News Colmar Brunton had nearly 70% of Labour supporters going Winnie by the start of this week. Left voters come in for a lot of flak for supposedly not voting strategically in Epsom, Ohariu etc but I’d say Northland Labour supporters deserve a major pat on the back. They were way ahead of the game.

    1. 44.1

      84.7% Winston leads by 3241.

      According to Paula Bennett on TV1 (of course) there will be some dancing tonight at the Kerikeri Golf Club. Yeah right, look forward to seeing it.

    3. 47.3

      No mocking ACT, they generously invited their supporters to vote National – which needs to be bought up as soon as Key accuses Labour of unfair deals btw

          1. 47.3.1.1.1

            I think about 17.5% of elected ACT MPs have been done for deceit or fraud, but now it seems the same number dont get tactical voting… The brilliant elite are suffering from in-breeding I think.

    1. 49.1

      🙂
      I think the rumour machine has been in top gear these past few weeks. Might have been better if they had fronted up.
      Or maybe not.
      Bastards.

    2. 49.2

      i am actually glad it never came out..

      ..’cos they could have used that as an excuse for the victory..

      ..peters has won it fair an square – and on his own merits..

      well done !..that man..!

      1. 49.2.1

        Well Phillip it would have served them right to have re-selected u no who in the first place.
        ie He should have gone quietly (for personal reasons) in 2014.
        But their arrogance is appalling. and the people of Northland have delivered their judgement.

  50. 50

    I still cant see any reason to celebrate.
    center/center right – about 85% of the vote
    left/center left – about 15% of the vote.
    Again, someone please explain to me how this will help Labour form the next government.

    2. 50.2

      It’s a massive blow to National’s brand, pretty simple really. It helps Labour form the next government by weakening National.

      1. 50.2.1

        Alternately, it helps National form the next government by making them form a working relationship with Peters now, so that it will be natural to continue that relationship in 2017 … and a National Party being held in check by Peters between now and then will probably be a touch more electable than a National Party that has been free to do its own thing (which is what we’ve effectively got just now).

    3. 50.3

      Again, someone please explain to me how this will help Labour form the next government.

      It tarnishes Key and makes him look weak. He’s had an unparalleled run of electoral success since 2008. I think this may be his first setback. When soft National voters start looking for other options, then they start thinking about voting for a change of government.

      1. 50.3.1

        That’s very hopeful. The alternative view is it made Labour look weak as they had to rely on Winston showing up in the mood for a fight. And it weakens the progressive position for the longer term. And as for weakening Key’s brand, he’ll shrug and grin a bit and say he’s sure everything will be okay, Winston will be stuffed full of the baubles of office, and that will be that.

    6. 50.6

      @ Alan W
      If you read past comments in posts on Northland which have appeared every day you will find much discussion about the strategic value of Winston getting in, and what it will. might or might not achieve. Overall, the feeling is that it is a positive thing, may achieve worthwhile results, puts a spoke in National’s progress which has too long been on a primrose path not justified by the their cretinous policies and the state of the country, and has aroused unprecedented energy and interest in Northland’s voters and the country.

    7. 50.7

      it actually does not matter if ‘this’ will help Labour form the next government or not.

      It matters that for the next two years, National will actually have to work to get bills to pass, and that hopefully Winston is a NZ First kind a guy who will not sell the country and its people down the dried up river bed.

      It matters that for the next two years, Dear Leader will have to grin and bare it anytime Mr. Winston calls him to task.

      it matters for those hat have not voted for Dear Leader in the last election, the 1 third of the population that actively voted against him, and the 1 third that was so cut of they did not bother to vote at all.

      Labour, if they want to, will have a shot at 2017 and if their programe is right they will be voted in and will form a government, with or without Winston.

      It matters, that National did not manage to put their sockpuppet forward and win.

      the end.

  52. 52

    Hans Christian Andersen’s Emperor story somehow has parallels here. Is Winston going to be the young fellow who yells out to John Key “But he is not wearing anything!”
    Are the good citizens of Northland setting a precedent by indicating the Nats have lost their way?

  53. 53

    WOo-hoo…..let’s look forward to National having to actually debate Bills and consult others! A great win for New Zealand’s democratic process. Let’s hope the RMA survives!

      3. 54.1.3

        Turnout-
        GE 2014: 35,707 Today: 28,468

        National votes: GE – 18,269 Today – 11,347
        Labour: GE – 8,969 Today – 1,315
        FocusNZ: GE – 1,661 Today – 107
        Green Party: GE – 3,639 – Today – N/A
        Conservative: GE – 1,555 Today – N/A

        NZ First – GE – 4,546 Today – 15,359

  55. 55

    To get National out, people have to be pissed off with them and start to vote against them. This has just happened.

  58. 58

    One booth to count. Will Winston crack the 4000 ahead of Osborne figure? That is the only question not yet answered. Northland told NACT where to go in no uncertain terms

  59. 59

    99% counted, Majority: 3,995 The winner, and still the grinniest guy in the room

    Winston Peters
    polite applause drifts across from the KeriKeri Golf Club

    3. 60.3

      Jeez imagine standing in the most widely covered by-election in a generation and your party leader doesn’t even show up to support you.

      What happened to the “team” in “Team Key (lbp)”?

        1. 61.1.1.1

          and have a look at the photo of Paula Bennett on the Stuff website .. more hysterical laughter to come !!!

  64. 64

    Yes, it looks like a real slap around the ears with a red snapper.
    Will be interesting to see how Key tries to cover up and deflect on the TV on Monday morning.
    There will be much working into the early morning from the PR machine trying to find someone to blame, someone or something to try and take the publics’s attention away from Winston.
    Tuesday in the house will be a wonderful event, shows what working together can do.
    I do so hope Peter Dunn sees what it’s about, but I have a horrible feeling he will be given an extra job and reward to remain loyal.

    1. 64.1

      Someone to blame? That’s easy it’s all Labour’s fault, they cheated and Winston stole OUR seat 😀

      “shows what working together can do”

      +1

    1. 65.1

      and he can tell the country what other promises he held back.
      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11424115

      “Mr Key said it had pulled plans for some other promises, but would deliver them after the byelection.” Read on and you see “Some would be in the Budget in May.”
      That does suggest National was ready to use upcoming budget announcements for by election promises, saw the signs and held back.

      Next week, will a single journalist be heard to ask
      “Mr Prime Minister, about the other promises for Northland you mentioned last week?”

      1. 65.1.1

        That will be Winstons job in parliament to ask the “Mr Prime Minister, about the other promises for Northland you mentioned last week?” question as well as push for all the pork they have already offered.
        If Labour keeps up its previous pressure on National also you are likely to see even more multiple sided attacks on them in the up coming question times chipping away even more of that Teflon coating that Key has relied on in the past.
        If Winston can walk the right line then the Nats might just find Northland lost to them again at the next election also and possibly for some years to come.

        1. 65.1.1.1

          and dare we hope for clear concise single issue questions where Carter’s [manipulation of his] position as arbiter of reality in the House is constrained.

            1. 65.1.1.1.1.1

              Lockwood’s special talent was being a master of the sly re-interpretation of a Minister’s answer when ruling, Carter just let’s them get away with not even bothering to answer and sometimes you are left wondering if he was even in the room 🙁

  66. 66

    “If we say we are going to do something we are bribing them if we don’t do anything we are neglecting them.” Welcome to the world of political criticism – where they have not been before

  68. 68

    The scowling weasel is not looking very happy. Good, unless it intensifies the urge to grind down the underclasses, which is likely to be the case.

    And what the hell is mischaracterisation? This actually seems to be a word found in dictionaries. Could it mean how dare you fail to give credit to our spin, evasions, blatant bribes, and dare I say it, outright lies? And how come the slurring weasel could pronounce it?

    You must have heard the interview in which the weasel said he was keeping his intended bounty for Northland under wraps in case his announcements were ‘mischaracterised’ by the meeja. Bad meeja.

    Alas the country is still in the grasp of an incompetent and dodgy government seemingly forever.

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