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7:54 am, December 24th, 2025 - 22 comments
Categories: Free Trade, labour, national, nz first, same old national, trade -
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Earlier this week the Government was cock a hoop about the announcement of a free trade deal with India.
This was a major policy announced during Luxon’s 2023 election campaign and a rather strange one. Announcing that you had to do a deal by a certain date would make the party that you are negotiating with realise they had some serious leverage over you and that you were quite desperate.
The announcement was high on hype and low on detail.
Luxon said that he had delivered on the promise and that the deal would remove or reduce tarriffs on 95% of NZ exports to India.
But then the details started to become clear. Dairy would not be included, New Zealand opens its markets to India completely whereas tarrifs on New Zealand goods entering India are in many cases phased out or reduced over a period of time. The deal facilitates large scale immigration from India. And there is the requirement for New Zealand to facilitate US$20 billion investment in India and reports that if this does not happen then India can wind back the opening of its market to New Zealand exporters.
And then Winston chose to rain on Luxon’s parade and declare that NZ First had agreed to disagree on the matter and would not support the trade deal empowering legislation.
From the NZ First press release:
New Zealand First is regrettably opposed to the India Free Trade Agreement announced today.
We consider the India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement to be neither free nor fair.
Regrettably, this is a bad deal for New Zealand. It gives too much away, especially on immigration, and does not get enough in return for New Zealanders, including on dairy.
New Zealand First urged its coalition partner not to rush into concluding a low-quality deal with India, and to use all three years of this Parliamentary cycle in order to get the best possible deal. We also indicated we felt it would be unwise for National to sign up to a deal with India when a Parliamentary majority for that deal was uncertain.
Unfortunately, these pleas went unheeded. National preferred doing a quick, low-quality deal over doing the hard work necessary to get a fair deal that delivers for both New Zealanders and Indians.
This puts Labour in the Kingmaker role. Support from Labour will get the treaty over the line. I am sure the pro trade Labour MPs will be itching to support the deal, even with all of its faults.
But why should it save Luxon from his publicity stunt and reckless negotiations of a trade deal which looks awfully one sided.
It could just say no to the deal. Or it could promise to renegotiate the deal if and when it leads the Government.
Luxon’s decision making is calamatous. He could have said that coalition politics prevented him from concluding the deal and left it at that. But announcing a flawed deal and facing a Parliamentary defeat on such a major issue is reckless in the extreme.
This could get very interesting.
The old adage of desperate times lead to desperate measures has some irony here….as there are also none so increasingly desperate, as Luxury Luxon .
I think you are leaving out one factor Psych. It is the patronage of the very wealthy that Luxon enjoys. The logic of what he has been doing fits the interests of those who will benefit from the opening of this Pandoras box.
We, our 5 million people with the desire to enjoy monetary pleasures and levels of wealth thinking that we can make good agreements that allow giant economies to access our equivalent pocket money, is just giving away the fruit from the orchard for a golden locket. Luxon and other pollies were in charge of our fruitful orchard but have given away control of the goods that we need for our survival.
But by easing the way for overseas wealthy, right- wing Natafacts sort themselves into the phalanx of these people. All they have to do is tear across the dotted line and they are implicit mates. We have been opened up to the wealthy and corporations that have transmuted into 'corpse', and without a war while we are confused; the rise from the ordinary working Labour person to the middle class seems to transmute the plebeians into patricians* as we see now. And so the mousewheel goes and we cannot elevate ourselves beyond it even with our superior education.
We needed to apply ourselves to philosophy; to discuss ourselves, what personal and community values and practices to be chosen by us kindly and thoughtfully, to adhere and aspire to. Can we still achieve this? Otherwise remaining tangled in argumentation; perpetually unknowing of how we will stray from once seeming eternal certain paths.
*AI puts it simply and clearly: A wealthy Roman who wasn't a patrician (noble) was – a Plebeian, and a famous example is Marcus Licinius Crassus, part of the wealthy plebeian gens Licinia, who became incredibly rich through land, business, and proscriptions during the Late Republic, showcasing how wealth could elevate commoners even if they weren't patrician by birth.
Hi GWS,you maybe have missed my(many)previous comments on Luxury Luxon, (Luxo to his friends..) but your quote example would be a given : )
Re the way our NZ is heading…as I have commented previously IMO its an update on the Descent Society of Bolger, English, and Key. Version 2.0 as it were….
It will take a huge commitment from the Left to prevent any further, and wholeheartedly reverse some major damage already done…
Also, on another, I rate your Philosophical input. I started reading History many years ago, and the Ancient Philosophers. Very interesting Minds : )
Thanks for comment Psy. I have been raising my philosophical reading training steadily for a while and consider I've done well from the ordinary educated's level of near zero. It is eye and mind opening and has been much lacking in NZ education, also the ability to discuss, argue on a point to some set objective not just randomly fault-find or throw disagreement around. So we are in this country well educated people many of whom now are satisfied praising themselves as 'Knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing'.
"This puts Labour in the Kingmaker role. Support from Labour will get the treaty over the line. I am sure the pro trade Labour MPs will be itching to support the deal, even with all of its faults."
I would love to know what the pro worker Labour MPs think of the deal.
So far we only have Luxon's gushiness and Peter's curmudgeonly description. Does the voting public get to see the details?
I doubt any genuine pro worker mp's would be particularly impressed with 700 000 more punters in a struggling job market over the next four years .
Hi Fred, where did you get the 700,000 figure from?
If it's true, Hipkins should not be saying anything positive about The Great Negotiator's latest gaff.
In his haste to get a 'deal' with India so it could look good on his CV I think Luxon has made a huge and for NZ an Expensive Mistake. And as per usual the NZ Taxpayers will be the Ambulance at the Bottom of the cliff and of course Luxon's very OWN ATMs.
NZ is to give India NZ$34billion in 'investment' but what will NZ get in return?
Luxon has 'found' the money i.e the $34billion to India but 'Cannot Find' the money for the Teachers, Doctors, Nurses, Fire-fighters, Police, Ambulance crews better pay and work conditions eg the run-down public hospitals here in NZ.
His actions Reek of Monstrous Hypocrisy on his part and all for the purpose of Enhancing Luxon's Ego. He has literally thrown the Dairy Farmers under a bus because all in all he has absolutely Zero/Nil/Nada/Sweet F A interest in this country and its population.
I have a huge concern about the 'investment' for India because it's a country that is rife with Corruption on all levels. With the right amount a bribery a criminal can get the documentation for a Visa to NZ and the NZ officials will be none the wiser as no thorough background checks would be made.
NZFirst are monstrously selfish.
But Hipkins should not support it in Parliament. National have wilfully torn up longstanding bipartisan agreements in climate, transport, and housing. They are political scum.
This Indian government is a bunch of mercenary, Russia-supporting, hard core nationalists who will scree us for everything we have to give.
Let's not make the same mistakes we made with China FTA.
Let Luxon burn on this.
Indeed National have, and indeed they are.
What chance the Nats would renegotiate bipartisan transport and housing agreements as a quid pro quo for Labour supporting Luxon’s sub-standard FTA with India? Climate / methane is (naturally) off the table – “The Mad Cow Shouldn't Have Signed“, etc.
A new word! To scree someone (vb) 1. to sieve out all the good and worthwhile bits, leaving just stones 2. to walk painfully uphill, one pace up and half a pace down 3. to descend a stony slope digging in the heels 4. to shower stones upon others below (a version of trickle down)
Best to stay off the mountain with those guys.
The Indian government's point of view is here:
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressNoteDetails.aspx?id=156654&NoteId=156654&ModuleId=3®=3&lang=1
It says "India- New Zealand FTA eliminates duty on 100% of Indian Exports"
Tariffs on some NZ exports are subject to exclusions(including diary), delays ("phased in over 7 years" ) and we also have additional commitments.
The best I could find in NZ was:
https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements-concluded-but-not-in-force/new-zealand-india-free-trade-agreement/key-outcomes
It would be helpful to see the full agreement but from the partial information released it seems to me that India may have got the better deal.
It would be beneficial to be a little less dependent on exports to China.
Probably we were looking at the possible terms and turned up at the wrong time or day to discuss. Read 'diary' thinking that is how 'dairy' is spelt, a common error from farmers who are rather common people?
So cluxin bent over for modi
Peters is against it because his voters won't like more Indians in nz ..
If labour chooses to back make the barstards pay, but I suspect as the only adults in government labour will, support because it probably is the right thing to do. .
we sell out dairy no problem elsewhere, and I understand incase reluctance on dairy is to protect small farmers, I can live with that.
To be objective, I don't think NZ1 are anti-trade per se, they are anti this deal because it's a dumb deal and not in this country's interest to sign it.
One can only imagine the pressure that Desperate Dan-Luxon will have heaped on NZ1 to support it, so credit where it's due, I say.
Labour can't afford to support it, IMHO, if the details here are correct. Like it or not, the left will come out either looking like they are aligning with NACT if they vote it in and I can't see the greens or TPM supporting it, so they will look like the lefts coalition is thrown under the bus for the sake of an early deal that puts money in business owners pockets to the potential detriment of workers wages. By the sound of it, even the business owners profits are only temporary.
Luxon and the negotiating tean should have read a bit of Kipling!
Now it is not good for the Christian health
To hustle the Aryan brown,
For the Christian riles, and the Aryan smiles
And he weareth the Christian down;
And the end of the fight is a tombstone white
With the name of the late deceased,
And the epitaph drear: "A Fool lies here
Who tried to hustle the East."
Every statement of "Growth growth growth" by Luxon and sidekicks, invariably turned to custard. Why would we get excited about this questionable negotiation effort? Mountain Tiu has a great summary on his site.
This is one of the worst deals ever negotiated.
Allowing an additional 2000 “students” every year from India, with unfettered work rights, and ability to bring in their family members without question is shocking.
even the China FTA had restrictions on the limit of movement. The India FTA completely rides roughshod over all other immigration requirements.
New Zealand has already seen innumerate examples where subcontinent business owners exploit their fellow man, see rape in an arranged marriage as acceptable, and otherwise make little effort to ensure they comply with NZ laws.
If Labour support this FTA, they should be pillocked.
Hipkins is already a weak milquetoast leader with no compelling characteristics, which is why this election I’ve decided Labour is done as a party vote option, and will be giving my party vote to TPM.
Electorate wise? Labour has a healthy majority in the electorate, so I’m tempted to give the EV to a greens candidate.
if I was in Epsom, I’d give my electorate vote to the National candidate in an effort to get rid of Seymour.
If only Lab/Grn voters had held their noses in 2020 and given their electorate vote to Paul Goldsmith, Seymour would most likely no longer be in NZ politics. It’s a shame that most Lab/Grn voters appear unwilling/unable to understand how to maximise their electorate vote to reduce the number of seats held by National. Fewer seats mean less taxpayer funding to spend on misinformation.
India free trade agreement excludes dairy, but that could change – minister https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/582697/india-free-trade-agreement-excludes-dairy-but-that-could-change-minister
It gets worse. Yes dairy is excluded from the agreement but maybe we could include it later, a year after the original deal is signed and sealed. Duh.
That's like buying a car and asking for a towbar as part of the deal, to be declined and thinking the dealer might be more accommodating after the car is bought and paid for. Again, Duh. Investment deals (which this is) make their profits at the front end. To hope for unbanked hypothetical gains later on is risky.
Sorry, but that really diminishes all our bargaining chips. A tough negotiator like luxon ought to insist it gets sorted now, not later after the agreement is in place and includes rules around how further negotiations take place.
If Labour backs Luxon in this half-finished agreement just so he can proclaim he met his obligations to the NZ people and capture some of the swinging voters who might otherwise have voted left, not to mention driving a wedge through the left coalition structure,I might vote Winston next time!!
IMO the Left….should NOT support this deal. Not for any particular Political advantage…but because it just doesnt pass any future positives for NZ. Its the old classic Win/Win….with the, as usual,one winner….
And among very many other comments on The Standard, Mountain Tui, and others questioning, I link Prof Jane Kelsey' perspective…
I don't have much problem with zero tariffs on Indians goods and phased reduction of our own – or even the exclusion of bulk dairy.
But I do have a problem with immigration being included (we should retain a non discriminatory migration regime).
Requirement for New Zealand to facilitate US$20 billion investment in India – what is Modi, another Trump?
and reports that if this does not happen then India can wind back the opening of its market to New Zealand exporters.
Just no.
"The deal facilitates large scale immigration from India."
That alone should be enough for all other parties to reject it out-of-hand. India's population is around 280 times larger than NZ's, so even if the two countries were at a similar economic level, large-scale immigration from India could be very large-scale. But our per-capita GDP is around 18 times larger than India's, which creates a big incentive for Indians to migrate here. Any Parliament that votes for this has a majority of lunatics.