Budget castles in the air

Apparently the budget will forecast strong growth in GDP and wages, and a return to surplus within a few years.  Sounds good?  Well yes, but it is all based on purely hypothetical “projected growth”.  Wishful thinking from Treasury analysts with a three year record of being wrong wrong wrong.

Open mike 17/05/2011

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The Sword of Damocles Budget

John Key is fond of saying “there is a constituency for every dollar you spend”. So, having borrowed to the hilt for tax cuts for the rich, which he refuses to reverse, how can Key cut enough to satisfy the credit ratings agencies without pissing off too many voters? He can’t, but he’s gonna say he can and leave the hard choices to his successor.

Fabian lecture Wellington

Fabian lecture from Rick Boven of New Zealand Institute on “The Plan for the Productive Economy” St John’s Church Hall, Tuesday 17th, 6pm. All welcome. I heard Rick in Auckland, he was very good.

James Hansen and other talks

James Hansen was among the first to raise the alarm about climate change, and is sometimes called “the father of climate change science” for his trouble. He’s currently in New Zealand, and had an excellent interview last Saturday with Kim Hill on RNZ.  Click through for a schedule of his public lectures, and also two “Dark Ecologies” talks.

Some are more equal than others

As we wait to see just how bad the economy has got under National, and what cuts they will force on us to pay for their follies, Michael Bott’s reports on canvassing in Masterton: “I spent a weekend with a team of Labour volunteers listening to the concerns of the people. A repeated remark was, ‘‘ no matter how hard I try, I just can’t get ahead’’”

Will ACT vote against the Budget?

Reading Don Brash’s letter to John Key and watching Roger Douglas on Q+A, I wonder if the Nats behind the takeover of ACT realised what they were unleashing. I’ve heard some talk that ACT won’t vote for Key’s Budget. Where would that leave Rodney Hide? Where would that leave the Maori Party? Could we see a snap election?

There Is An Alternative

The run up to the budget has all been about cuts.  How many?  How deep?  Like lemmings we’re accepting National’s framing, and marching even faster to our economic doom.  But, there is an alternative. Instead of slashing spending, we can raise government income. Here’s how.

Open mike 16/05/2011

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Drug-peddlers

Lobbyist Mark Unsworth of Saunders Unsworth is campaigning against Pharmac, ahead of the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade negotiations with the US. They want more money spent on patented drugs.

Lloyd Morrison and Gareth Morgan have come to the defence of Pharmac.

Krugman: The unwisdom of elites

Paul Krugman on the real reasons for the economic carnage.  Not social spending policies, but the daft economic policies of the right-wing “policy elites”.  Our focus should not be on slashing spending, but on National’s stupid, unaffordable tax cuts.

If only smiles were dollars

The minor party debate on Q+A was very interesting. Rahui Katene was self-contradictory and vague, like the Maori Party always is. Peter Dunne was pathetic. Roger Douglas slammed the government’s borrowing as did Russel Norman, who pointed out the other three had all voted for National’s debt-increasing tax cuts for the rich.

March against RWR’s racism

At midday on May 27, New Zealanders will take to Queen St to spit in the face of the pathetic, racist Rightwing Resistance. Actually, the march organisers say it’s to “express how we actually LOVE having diversity in our communities and we want to accommodate and be inclusive”. Be there.

Open mike 15/05/2011

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Jackel’s week that was

This week in The Jackel’s week that was: deepsea oil protests continue, Prince Charles against business as usual, child poverty, Libya, bees, onshore oil protests, US flooding, Nats prepare for cuts as we pay for their mistakes, ACC’s hardline savings come at a price, Wikileaks, and more!

The CERA salary

CERA’s new head, Roger Sutton, seems like a good guy. Transformative vision for Chch. Seems committed and realistic. Might just survive having to work with Brownlee. But what’s with the $500K salary? He says he wanted the job. So why pay him $10K per week while Cantabrians are getting their wage support cut?

Finding the balance

MrSmith argues that the need to provide ‘balance’ undermines our media. It lets well-financed or extreme interest groups skew public discourse through the fallacy of moderation – present two sides and people will tend to think that the truth is somewhere in the middle. MrSmith wants media that is unafraid to voice its opinion on what is right.

TV3 on the cost of living

Over the coming week Campbell Live will be highlighting the rising cost of living, falling wages, life on the pension, and so on.  In short, exactly the sort of stuff which should be front and centre of any budget, and any election campaign.

Beemer watch

What is going to happen to the “old” BMW limos when the government gets rid of them?  The franchise that just donated $50,000 to the Nats has said it wants its share of the “honey pot”.  I wonder if the Nats will oblige?

Open mike 14/05/2011

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The Dear John Letter

This letter is getting more media attention than it deserves, because its basically Brash regurgitating his 2025 task force stuff.  Key and the Nats have, quite rightly, ignored it once, and they’ll ignore it this time too.

Canterbury rebuild

MrSmith argues that the government’s announcement of $42 million over four years for trades training for the Canterbury rebuild is mis-directed. He says it takes too long to train a tradesperson and the money would be better spent getting building workers back from Aussie, or keeping the ones that are still leaving.

100% Clueless

When confronted with the scientific evidence on the hollowness of our “100% Pure” slogan John Key, as usual, tried to attack the credibility of the source.  Key said “He’s one academic and, like lawyers, I could provide you others who would give a counter view”.   Now the source (Dr Mike Joy) has called the PM on his clueless claim.

Key’s panda plan falls through

The second plank of John Key’s economic plan for New Zealand has fallen through. First, the ‘national cycleway’ became a scattered assortment of cycle paths that were already under construction. Now, the pandas Key was going to rent so we could get rich buying tickets to see them won’t be coming and we have revealing emails to share.

Open mike 13/05/2011

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Choices choices

Watch Jacinda Ardern clean up Jamie-Lee Ross on Breakfast this morning. Nearly half of the National Government’s much-quoted borrowing of $300 million a week is to pay for their tax cuts. That was this government’s choice. Now their choice is that everyone else has to pay for it.

Jon Stephenson replies to critics

PM John Key attacked journalist Jon Stephenson, calling him not credible over his claims on SAS links to the torture of prisoners in Afghanistan.  Now Stephenson has replied to his critics, in detail.

National reforms Kiwisaver – again

John Key has announced National’s third reform of Kiwisaver in 3 years, saying the government’s contribution will be cut and made up with higher minimum contributions from members and their employers. It’s an embarrassing flip-flop from the government that cut default contribution rates and shows no plan for the future.

The Kiwisaver “employer contribution” scam

The media is claiming Kiwisaver cuts will be offset by increased worker and employer contributions.

But because of a loophole in the scheme National created in 2009, employers can simply take their “contribution” out of their workers’ wages.

No wonder business lobby groups are unconcerned by the move.

The “big issues”

John Key is whinging about how labour isn’t focusing on the “big issues”

But he and his government have been avoiding the big issues for years.

That’s not surprising given how badly they do on these big issues. But it’s still pitiful to see them whinging about it.

Open mike 12/05/2011

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Maggie Barry

National have tonight chosen Mt Albert resident Maggie Barry as their North Shore candidate.

Cash for cars?

A $50,000 donation from a BMW franchise to National?

This latest twist to the BMW saga has a real stench about it.