Vernon Small jumps the shark
There’s lies, damn lies, and statistics. And then there’s writing a beat-up story and providing none of the numbers needed to back it up at all.
Updated: Other bloggers commenting on the ‘maths’
Open mike 18/07/2014
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Tales from the left ground
I was uplifted by seeing Team Carmel Sepuloni out campaigning in Henderson today. Marama Davidson has been out on the ground in Otara. The Internet-Mana Party have gone on a Road Trip. There’s been an on-going left campaign in Ohariu…. what are the tales from the left, campaigning on the ground?!
90 Minutes, Extra Time, Then Penalties.
If there is evidence that Key lied about when he first heard of Dotcom, then that strengthens Dotcom’s defence against extradition. He can then rightly say he has not had a fair go; that the parties trying to send him to the States to stand trial do not have clean hands. The potential personal gain for Kim Dotcom is obvious. The effect on the election may not be quite as positive.
IPCA review of the illegal spying on Kim Dotcom
The IPCA has upheld the Police decision not to prosecute members of the GCSB for illegally spying on Kim Dotcom.
What’s so important about 15 September?
I’m intrigued by Kim Dotcom’s announcement of earth-shattering revelations to be made on 15 September – just 5 days out from the last voting day of this general election.
NRT: More statistical censorship from National
Last year, the Ministry for the Environment reported that 61% of New Zealand’s rivers were unsafe for swimming. National’s response? Shut down the monitoring program.
Polity: New Polls
The Roy Morgan and Fairfax/Ipsos polls out overnight are both bad news for the cause of positive change in New Zealand. Labour is below 25% in both polls, which is disaster territory if is solidifies. The potential coalitions of the left look just as bad. This doesn’t look like a change in the left-right split. The effects of the National / NZ Herald /Liu smear campaign feeding through fits the usual polling lag time period of about 4-6 weeks.
Open mike 17/07/2014
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Russel Norman: ‘smart, green’, innovation economy
Russel Norman has announced a business-friendly policy for a “smart, green” focus on innovation. A move towards a “Green New Deal”, working with the current system, and away from neoliberalism. It won’t dismantle capitalism, but exists within a framework for a fairer NZ.
NRT: GCHQ’s bag of dirty tricks
The UK intelligence agency GCHQ has developed sophisticated tools to manipulate online polls, spam targets with SMS messages, track people by impersonating spammers and monitor social media postings, according to newly-published documents leaked by NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden.
Polity: Minimum wage rises do not cause unemployment
In the cartoon world of Economics 101, there is perfect supply, perfect competition, perfect demand, perfect information and prices for labour (and everything else) are set at their true market values. The real world is somewhat different.
Dotcom – Who applied the political pressure?
National is claiming that Immigration NZ’s decision to allow Kim Dotcom to stay was made without any political pressure being applied. But it was the decision of the SIS to remove its block on Dotcom’s application that let the approval be granted. Why did the SIS remove its block and who applied the political pressure?
Open mike 16/07/2014
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The FBI also wanted DotCom to stay in New Zealand
The FBI had been working with the New Zealand authorities for a year before he was arrested. They wanted to arrest him on his birthday “because it would be a big party and all the assets would be there.”A Department of Justice official revealed this to ex-Senator Dodd, chief lobbyist for the Motion Picture Association of America. The FBI is a Justice Department agency. The “party assets” were why he had to be kept here.
NZ First conference – the kingmakers?
It looks like I’ll be able to head to the NZ First conference at Alexandra Park racecourse on the weekend as media. This election the position of NZ First party members is probably going to be crucial for any coalition that forms. In this rather long post I explain my (and other peoples) thinking on possible coalition results for National after the election. They aren’t good because they really depend on a political group that National has been denigrating for quite a while.
Dear Greenpeace – difficult cases make bad law
Greenpeace has been told by the Electoral Commission that its Climate Voter Website requires third party authorisation and that a cap on the amount that can be spent applies. There is an exception in the law if the site is a “news media” site which is paradoxically the same defence Cameron Slater is running in his case against Matt Blomfield justifying his refusal to disclose who his informant is. The sense of irony is strong here …
NRT: Election 2014: A clear choice on clean rivers
The National government’s policy for economic growth has been simple: pump up dairy production, export more low-value milk powder, and keep low-value farmers as the “backbone of the economy”. To achieve this, they have dismantled the protections for and then defiled our fresh water on an industrial scale. The Greens want to reverse that and thereby ensure a long-term future for both our farming and peoples. Updated.
Polity: Armstrong on Labour, turnout, MMP
Over the weekend John Armstrong had a column about youth voter turnout in the upcoming election. Much of the material was familiar – young people don’t vote so much – nobody talks their language, yo! – parties are Trying Very Hard, but they are also old fuddy-duddies – and so on. He then blamed much of it on a perceived trend toward centrist politics under MPP. But runs directly-if-casually contrary to at least two large research programmes in political science.
National wanted Dotcom to stay in NZ
The Herald is reporting that direct political pressure was applied on Immigration NZ to grant Kim Dotcom and his family residence in New Zealand. And the SIS tried to block the application but dropped their objection after being told there was “political pressure”.
Updated with more links
Open mike 15/07/2014
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Polity: Judith Collins on crime
Last week, new information became public about potential stat-juking by our Police. The practice of reclassifying crimes as “incidents” has the effect of artificially reducing the apparent crime rate. This practice occurred mainly in the Counties-Manukau police district, which operates in the electorate of then-Police Minister Judith Collins. That is, of course, troubling on a number of levels.
Updated.
Labour Party Policy on Sexual Violence – A Closer Look
This past week has seen both mainstream media and political blogs of all persuasions, opine with fact-free ranting on the reversal of the burden of proof in sexual offence cases.
A bit of a plea . Sexual Violence is a sensitive issue. The least that ought be done, by those releasing policy around it; the media reporting it; the bloggers opining on it; and us, the individual’s commenting on it; the least we can do is try and make sure we have our facts in order first. Please?
The Worm turns: serves the media not democracy
I am really sorry to see the return of the Worm this election. It’s bad enough we have way more polling than we need, interfering with democratic process. Now we have even more of the same, with the way the Worm is to be implemented. [Updated]
Palestine
Palestine in in the news again for all the wrong reasons. A one sided relentless series of Palestinian civilian deaths suggests that Israel is not acting in legitimate self defence.
Open mike 14/07/2014
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Cops cooking crime stats
The Herald on Sunday is reporting that South Auckland police have doctored crime statistics for the area by reclassifying burglary offences as less serious offences.
Open mike 13/07/2014
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Green Party election priorities launch
Today the Green Party launched the first of it’s election priorities in Hamilton at 11. 00 am. The focus is on building a cleaner, fairer, smarter New Zealand. The Internet Party is onboard with a new environment policy. There are differences between these 2 parties and Labour on oil and gas exploration. Equality continues to be a key priority for the Green Party. [Updated]
National and Pasifika
National’s desire of increasing its support among Pasifika is understandable in an MMP world. But John Key’s and National’s selection of socially conservative candidates in South Auckland in an attempt to be attractive to some socially conservative voters is more than a little disingenuous.
Open mike 12/07/2014
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John Oliver, the media and climate change
If you ever wanted an entertaining, succinct, yet devastating critique of the media handling of Climate Change then John Oliver’s recent attempt from his Last Week Tonight show should be compulsory viewing.
Polity: National rejects helping the most vulnerable kids
Reposted from Polity. Here is Vernon Small this morning: The Government rejected plans to include beneficiaries in a package to help families with […]
Jon Stephenson vs NZDF retrial
The NZ Defense Force have been defending themselves in a defamation case against some grossly inaccurate claims that they made about reporter Jon Stephenson back in 2011 (and that John Key recklessly and foolishly chimed in on). They have been forced to concede that their claims were inaccurate. But a hung jury about how defamatory the claims were is causing it to proceeding to second trial. It looks like legal maneuvering by the NZDF has failed. My view is that the NZDF are being completely stupid about owning up to their screwup.
Polity: The ENV debate: Some more data
Rob Salmond presents the David Farrar / Steven Joyce / John Key argument that 2011 non voters are a National-leaning bunch. Then he shows that a better look at their own data undermines their claim. This matters because it helps us understand which bloc has more to gain from voter mobilization efforts in 2014. This means the left has a lot more to gain than the right from mobilization in 2014.
Labour on digital
This morning Labour will be announcing it’s Digital Economic Upgrade (ICT policy). “Streamed live to the world” at 8am. As a dedicated member of the programming fraternity and often aghast at the stupidity of the how the government treats the digital community, I want to hear this.
So I will live blog some of this as it goes through.