Open mike 23/09/2023

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64 comments on “Open mike 23/09/2023”

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  1. 1

    Coalition..of Chaos ! .

    Winston Peters refuses to use David Seymour's name

    NZ First's leader took his election campaign tour to the heartland of ACT's David Seymour in Auckland's Epsom and, as Garth Bray writes, the crowd couldn't miss his pointed refusal to utter his opponent's name once.

    https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/09/22/winston-peters-refuses-to-use-david-seymours-name/

    Oh yea…Cmon the Left. Solidarity…and we have the advantage..they are fighting themselves !

    1. 1.1

      "Coalition of … "

      Lots of options really. "Cuts" has been used, but my favourites would include "crazies", "con-men" "conspiracists", "cash-lifters", "crackpots" and "cock-wavers". No doubt the potential list is nearly endless.

      1. 1.1.1

        Aye..theres a whole meme generator in those ! Also Creeps? Critters?

        However…The Coalition of crazy con-men is a bit of a combo standout : )

    2. 1.2

      Was it significant that in the minor parties debate the other night, Seymour and Peters were as far away from each other as was possible?

      Truly, if, God forbid, they ever have to go into coalition with Natz to form a government, they will be a Coalition of Chaos, and a Coalition of Cuts, with or without the 'n' factor!

      1. 1.2.1

        Divide..and Rule. As they… like some horrific, poisonous, protozoa… self divide.

        Into oblivion.

        I sincerely hope : )

        And obvs….We Rule !

  2. 2

    Credit Parker with intelligent steering in the right direction, plus delivery!

    Issuing clearer guidance to councils about assessing natural hazard risk is one of the measures in the National Adaptation Plan adopted by the Government last year. Consultation is open until November 13 and the policy is scheduled to be in force early next year.

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/govt-suggests-barring-development-in-climate-exposed-areas

    Also fair to say that this is Labour at its best & likely worth at least 9/10… although, being political substance rather than fluff they probably won't use it in the campaign…

  3. 3

    Bomber wants the PM to surprise everyone by morphing into a socialist:

    I’ve known you for ages, you are a good man and this country can not handle the social carnage ACT and National will bring.

    Fight for it Chippy. Fight for NZ. Announce David and Grant’s Wealth Tax and ignite the populism that made Bernie Sanders so powerful.

    You are out of options, and this is the last play.

    If the Left votes – the Left wins!

    Give the Left a reason to vote for you Chippy!

    Numbers, lad. Those disenchanted leftists you reckon need a reason to vote would likely clock in around 1%. Most leftists are already motivated.

    Those who will create the election outcome are floaters, not leftists. Just look at the polling trend since Labour was in parity with National not that long ago. Eyeball that Stuff rolling poll of polls graphic, showing floaters have produced a differential around 10%. That measures the floaters who have shifted as 5% of the electorate. Then spot the floaters who still haven't decided, currently around 10%.

    The PM won't admit he's wrong about a wealth tax, Bomber. It would mean ditching neoliberalism: that ideology in his head, like an operating system in a computer.

    However there's a technical possibility that a brainwave happens to him & he spits it out. Such brilliance can captivate floaters, could make him a winner. Magical thinking.

    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/09/23/dear-chippy-some-thoughts-on-your-debate-performance-the-inevitability-of-a-wealth-tax/

    1. 4.1

      Snarky comment.

      Tucker wants Putin interview, as does half the world. The ratings would set a record.

      An even better interview would be his top minister Lavrov.

      Either of them would shred any western politician.

  5. 5

    On TV One News, Friday they had quite a big segment of Vote Compass. Amongst all the main concerns…(cost of living, economy, and healthcare) was Rent and ..Tax.

    I noted unsurprisingly…

    Among renters, support for limits on rent rises climbs to 86%.

    Wealthy should pay more

    A majority of respondents wanted to tax the wealthy more — broken down to 32% who wanted the wealthy to pay much more and 35% who wanted somewhat more.

    This next part did surprise me ..a little ?. This group not so conservative/right wing in that regard? Good on them : )

    Notably, 70% of respondents aged over 65 believe wealthy people should pay somewhat or much more in taxes — higher than the national average and all other age groups.

    https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/09/22/vote-compass-reveals-which-cost-of-living-policies-kiwis-support/

    Anyway was good to see/hear views.

    1. 5.1

      Yeah, it is interesting.
      In BBQ conversations (of course an entirely unrepresentative sample), I found increased tax for wealth is reasonably supported. The caveat being, that none of these people would consider themselves wealthy (although many would tip over the edge in the GP criteria – depending on the value of their houses). Support for 'other people' paying taxes is always much higher than support for your own tax bill going up.

      I can’t find the actual question asked, in the article – but I wonder if it distinguished between increased income taxes and an asset tax (the GP wealth tax).
      The elderly (generalizing here) are often in favour of increased income tax (which they largely don’t pay) and against increased asset taxes (currently rates) which they do.

        1. 5.1.1.1

          Yes. However, I would expect that the assumption from those was increased income tax – rather than asset tax. It's not explicit in the question. Nor is 'wealthy' defined (as I said, the general assumption – unless you're a billionaire – is that this group doesn't include you)

          The answer, certainly from some target groups (over 65 is a prime example) is likely to vary considerably over exactly what form the tax takes.

  6. 6

    [The elderly (generalizing here) are often in favour of increased income tax (which they largely don’t pay) and against increased asset taxes (currently rates) which they do.]

    It is probably well known that wealth taxes, in those circumstances, could be deferred until their property is sold, or passes into their estate when they die, or is transferred to a trust.

    1. 6.1

      It can be. However, this group already has this 'defer' option for rates – and are highly reluctant to use it – therefore being one of the major groups opposing rate rises.

      Also being aware that 'sold' is likely to be to fund their retirement care – which is getting more expensive all the time – so unwilling to agree to substantial tax payments to operate at this time.

      They are also one of the least likely groups to perceive themselves as 'wealthy' – since their wealth has largely been gained through the operations of a property market in which they haven't participated (bought 40 years ago, and haven't been property flippers).

      I've yet to see a survey with a question along the lines – "Would you, personally, be prepared to pay a wealth tax and/or increased income taxes?"

      2. 6.1.2

        Would make no difference to themselves for funding for residential care though. It would just mean that as the rest home takes their money they would qualify for government subsidy earlier.

        Might make the difference in being able to afford a residential village arrangement prior to needing rest home care but under current settings the residential village both takes their money and makes the capital gains. They seem to be extremely willing to enter into those arrangements – and yep I have family members who chewed through much more than a million as they lived under those arrangements for more than 10 years. Those villages have great add on costs as well.

        1. 6.1.2.1

          License to occupy dosnt attract taxpayer subsidies (currently)…so that rort is of no interest to taxpayers, however the care subsidy is of concern…as is the quality of care.

          1. 6.1.2.1.1

            No but a prior caveat of a decent value may reduce the money gained from sale to be able to afford the capital outlay/ongoing cost.

            rates deferral less of an issue as if you are deferring your rates you likely don't have the capital to afford a residential village anyway.

            A deferral for wealth tax could build up over the years though.

            1. 6.1.2.1.1.1

              rates deferral less of an issue as if you are deferring your rates you likely don't have the capital to afford a residential village anyway.

              I think otherwise. This is classic 'granny' scenario. House worth 3 million + – but she lives on her pension (no other income stream) – and can’t afford the 6K or so each year. She's relying on the house sale, when it becomes necessary, to fund her retirement home placing.

        2. 6.1.2.2

          Lots of the good quality rest homes require a co-payment.
          The ones which allow only the government subsidy are…. not that great (certainly in Auckland)

          That’s based on a wide range of family and friends dealing with placement of elderly relatives.

          1. 6.1.2.2.1

            None of my family are in rest homes in Auckland. They all have had good service around the country – apart from one co-payment one which when their money ran out after 12 years she was moved from her room to a ward and died within 3 months.

            When she went in she was very unwell and wasn't expected to live more than a few months. Picked up enormously after she went in.

  7. 7

    A bfd.

    United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain on Friday invited President Joe Biden to join the picket line as striking workers expanded their walkout to dozens more General Motors and Stellantis

    facilities.

    “We invite and encourage everyone who supports our cause to join us on the picket line from our friends and families all the way up to the president of the United States,” Fain said during a Facebook Live stream.

    “We invite you to join us in our fight,” the union boss said.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/22/uaw-strikes-shawn-fain-invites-joe-biden-to-join-picket-line.html

  8. 8

    Amongst all the NZ Election…mind warps…I found this. In Hamilton. Where only recently a Cluster (?) of Conspiracists, were hating-on the Hamilton City Council about all kinds of weird conspiracy BS.

    Emily Coffey from Hamilton City Council gave RNZ a sticky-beak at the council's new Nature In The City app before it launches on 25 September. It was designed by the council as part of its work to add nearly 1000 hectares of native vegetation to the city by 2050.

    Not a Finch..but a Bellbird !

    In the Mangakotukutuku Gully for example, you could see or hear a bellbird – a sight so rare in Hamilton, Smith could not quite believe it when he first saw them.

    "I thought, 'No, it's a finch mate, it's a finch.' And then I just looked at it for a while, it flew across the stream and it started singing and it was 100 percent a bellbird."

    A..Bat Hotspot !

    Hamilton has one of the only urban bat populations. Smith said he and his family liked to bike down to the "bat hotspot" at dusk, lie on their backs in the grass and watch the bats flicker in and out of the bat houses.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/498575/hamilton-launches-app-to-get-people-rediscovering-the-city-s-nature

    What could..and should be.

    Onya guys. : )

    1. 8.1

      Thanks for that, real good news… yes I wondered if the bellbird was just a male explorer or one of a couple, then realised that it could be a female explorer too.

      Incidentally, that set of three possibilities is a triad. In the deep Green view of life one can adopt a neopythagorean stance & correlate 3 as archetype (originating principle) to process in nature. Then you get a generic theory emerging which bridges metaphysics and science. Humanity, like many other species, reproduces a child from two parents, thus 3 takes form, extending the sex binary into family via trinity.

      With computers we must discern binary code & the element 3 adds to that binary which transforms it into digital process. Switching 0/1. The slash symbol represents that function. Binary readers need not freak out when told that quantum computing works on the basis that a bit need not be zero or one at any particular moment – it can be anywhere in between those two states. In temporal structure, discern the triad 0/x/1 where x is any fraction of 1, because the switching occurs in real time.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qubit

      I've been reading quantum biology lately and can reassure you that it ain't just in high-tech, Gaia does it too…

  9. 9

    By my counting there are six certain plus one arguable nutter/conspiracy theorist parties running for election this time.

    Democracy NZ

    Freedoms NZ

    Leighton Baker Party

    New Nation Party

    NZ Loyal

    Vision NZ

    NZ Outdoors and Freedom Party (the arguable one).

    This loony list is the best argument against lowering the current 5% party vote threshold.

    Let's all wish them well, may they each score 4% of the party vote because that will mean 28% of the party vote, a few hundred thousand votes that will NOT go to the NACTs and instead go into the wastepaper basket. Labour will not lose diddly squat because none of these turds would have voted Labour anyway.

    Potential result if it happens this way:

    National losing the election by a whisker and Luxon in shock and disbelief. How could we have lost this?

    Labour sneaking in for a third term and can't quite believe its luck. "You mean we WON!!!!

    The Greens quietly satisfied.

    ACT: Seymour having a tantrum on the floor.

    T Pati Maori: Bwaaaaaaa! Bwaaaaaaa!

    NZ First: Winston insisting the vote was a fraud and demanding another election or threatening a coup detat.

    Wouldn't it be nice!

    3. 9.3

      That's the potential outcome that may be driving National and ACT's paranoia in pandering to the fringe elements. 20+% wasted vote that would have otherwise predominantly gone to, or gains by National would really rip their nighty. Could get to that easily if NZ First doesn't quite make it.

      Another scenario giving the same result, is National and ACT going too far into cooker territory and their rational base stays home.

      But then it's doubtful that cookers + NZ First adds up to much much more than 5 – 10% of the electorate.

      1. 9.3.1

        I think that you're profoundly misunderstanding what happens under MMP to the wasted vote. It's distributed proportionally to those parties which are in parliament.

        So, unless you're also pre-supposing a switch of 5% from the right to the left (which would make all of this manoeuvring entirely academic). Luxon would still be leading a National/ACT government.

  10. 10

    "Labour will not lose diddly squat because none of these turds would have voted Labour anyway."

    What makes you so sure of this?

    1. 10.1

      What makes me so sure?

      You only have to read what they write, listen to what they say. They each think they are the only way to salvation. Their only unifying force is hatred of Labour and even that is not enough for them to do the sensible thing, form an alliance and have a chance of winning a couple of seats.

      The Loony Alliance – that would look good on the ballot paper!

  11. 11

    Surprise! The cooker wonder drug of choice does zip.

    /

    Question Does ivermectin, with a maximum targeted dose of 600 μg/kg daily for 6 days, compared with placebo, shorten symptom duration among adult (≥30 years) outpatients with symptomatic mild to moderate COVID-19?

    Findings In this double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled platform trial including 1206 US adults with COVID-19 during February 2022 to July 2022, the median time to sustained recovery was 11 days in the ivermectin group and 11 days in the placebo group. In this largely vaccinated (84%) population, the posterior probability that ivermectin reduced symptom duration by more than 1 day was less than 0.1%.

    Meaning These findings do not support the use of ivermectin among outpatients with COVID-19.

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2801827

    3. 11.3

      I wonder about the disparity of these double blind trials and the cooker experiences with ivermectin. Do they do them on a select demographic that represents the people who are using it 'off label', or is it a standard randomised medical trial?

      From observation of the cooker demographic, a good worming probably wouldn't do them any harm, and probably do a world of good for their viral resistance. Works with sickly, grumpy sheep.

      1. 11.3.1

        Parasites , ( of the macro kind) as part of their survival strategy in the host, have the ability to repress the immune system .

        Get rid of the parasites , and your immune system is better able to deal with the virus

        (a micro parasite)

  12. 12

    On National’s Tax Cuts [31 August 2023]
    Revealingly, National’s chart setting out the potential income gains has omitted everyone earning below $30,000 as if they don’t exist – and that’s an accurate reflection of how the “bottom feeders” simply don’t register on the centre-right’s voter radar.

    Today's classroom visitor is Mr Luxon from the National Party
    MR LUXON: If you were naughty you went to boot camp and got scared into being an ordinary hardworking New Zealander. Or you became a bottom-feeder. Don’t become bottom-feeders, boys and girls.

    So how many Kiwi "bottom feeder" votes might it take to avoid a NAct government?

    Nat pollies may own (a lot) more properties than "bottom feeders" (3.3 properties per polly on average), but every Kiwi has the same number of party votes – ONE.

    So c'mon, there's still time to enrol to vote – help is available if you need it.

    https://vote.nz/enrolling/enrol-or-update/enrol-or-update-online/

    What other methods are there to enrol?

    If you don't have regular access to the internet, or the right identification details (New Zealand driver licence, New Zealand passport or RealMe ID) to accompany an online enrolment, you can still enrol in other ways.

    You can enrol or update your details by filling in an enrolment form. Call 0800 36 76 56 or freetext your name and address to 3676 to have one sent to you. You can pick up an enrolment form at a Citizen's Advice Bureau, most public libraries, and Electoral Commission offices.

    Three weeks to go – Up the "Bottom Feeders", Up the Wahs, DON'T FORGET TO VOTE smiley

    1. 12.1

      It would be nice if we could ignore the gurus expounding theories as to will pepsi or coke win the election for a wee while.

      Roger Whitaker has died, a sad sad day.

      One of the most talented and likeable muso's of our time

  13. 13

    The Left vote in Wellington Central might be 60% but if it splits 35% Omer for Labour and 25% for Paul for the Greens then Sheeran of National will win with just 36%

      1. 13.1.1

        That's the beauty of FPP. In that poll the ACT party scored 3.5% but have no candidate so obviously add 3.5% to 28% and you get 31,5%. That was then!. Now it will be 33% and could easily be 36% by election time

  14. 14

    Greg O'Connor is apparently ditching Hipkins and Labour in the campaign, and making an all-out-effort to convince the Ohariu voters to return him, personally.

    He said that Nicola Willis will be the Finance minister in the next government – and that voters should give him their electorate vote to ensure he gets back into Parliament (no mention of party vote Labour at the meeting, although he subsequently corrected this)

    In a bid to hold on to his north Wellington seat Ōhāriu, O’Connor also said residents should give him their “electorate vote only” to ensure he remains in Parliament.

    https://www.thepost.co.nz/a/politics/350076455/labour-mp-concedes-his-party-will-likely-lose-election

    1. 14.1

      what a dickhead. How many election campaigns has he been through, and he 'forgot' to mention the party vote?

      That article is a little unclear, but if he did in fact say “electorate vote only” I hope he loses his seat.

    2. 14.2

      He said that Nicola Willis will be the Finance minister in the next government…

      C'mon B, that's what you wanted O'Connor to say – odd for a ‘centrist’ to leave out the word ‘likely’, when it’s in the URL in your comment, and occurs several times in the linked article, including the article’s title.

      Maybe it’s an example of perception being at odds with reality – makes you think?

      “Let’s face it, unless something changes in the debate tonight, Nicola’s likely to be the next Minister of Finance,”
      …
      “My main opponent is Nicola … there’s probably a very good chance that if the polls stay the way they are, she’ll end up a cabinet minister in the next government,” he told the Bupa retirement village.
      …
      At a third meeting, again at the town hall, he said: “Polling going the way it is, she’s likely to be a minister.”
      …
      “All I said is, on current polling, she is likely to be,” he told The Post. “You don’t need your school cert to work it out. That’s not to say the polling won’t change.”

    2. 15.2

      Nup. Tamatha has WC in the bag.

      Couldn't give a fuck about that idiot Greg O'Connor, in fact I hope he gets bumped. He's in the wrong party.

        1. 15.2.1.1

          I seem to remember No Right Turn calling him a "jack-booted fascist" at one time. Pretty harsh! But I always got a bit of a right-leaning vibe from him (like I did from Stuart Nash).

      1. 16.2.1

        The image makes the context clear, I'm laughing at halfwit reckons about a truck load of scaffolding being evidence of a war crime, without linking to their vatnik stupidity.

        [this not the first time I’ve asked you to link to tweets. Next time, a comment with tweet without direct links will get deleted – weka]

        1. 16.2.1.1

          Well then I guess that tweet is right, it is dangerous.

          Seems to be scaffolding, but if you'd said it was bomb tubes and mini mortars (or something) I probably would have believed you, since I don't know what they look like.

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