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Open mike 18/01/2023
61 comments on “Open mike 18/01/2023”
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What is climate denial?
Much of the stuff out there is discussion on how best to deal with climate change – it seems to me.
We most certainly cannot have a Static Climate for it is certain changes have been continuously occurring over millions of years.
Surely a policy of least present damage for least future damage has some attraction?
I am trying not to ask questions that are too difficult to answer and hope that open communication can get to the best answer – for us all.
[TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]
You've put your finger on it – the current rate of change is 'unnatural'.
For the purposes of commenting under my posts, here is what I consider climate denial,
I also take a dim view of arguments along the lines of 'there's nothing we can do' or 'it's too late.
Is this a good place to get information from?
https://theconversation.com/nz/topics/climate-explained-74664
Assuming that is a genuine question, I am shocked you even have to ask it. Have you looked at the list of contributors? They only represent some of the very best brains in the country.
Or are you one of those science deniers.
why are you asking me that?
FOMO (Fear Of Moderator Ostracism)
Consulting the Oracle
The one source of truth?
ROFL Incognito!
thanks for clarifying where you stand, this makes things easier.
Would you buy a car or a house from an unknown seller without enquiring first about their reputation and track record? Would you simply rely on online reviews from sources that you don’t know anything about? Or would you do a bit of research aka fact-checking and apply sound judgment to make well-informed decisions?
The expected standard on The Standard is that commenters contribute to robust informed debate by making sound arguments founded on reality and presenting their reliable trustworthy information sources with links. This helps build a culture and community of trust and respect.
very nicely put.
SUVs no longer unaffordable for those desperately troubled Groundswell gentlemen?
I may have misunderstood a recent advertising campaign but it would appear that the Triton (Mitsubishi) is being offered with the surcharge being paid for them by MMC. Now they might be able to buy another GPS-controlled-air conditioned-cab-tractor for exclusive use on demonstrations.
Mitisbushi have had to be very proactive to sell the Triton in Aotearoa. Reality is they're not that good compared to a Hilux or Ranger, very much built down to a price.
In my circle they are referred to as an Itsbitsy Tighton.
But reality is that demand is shifting very quickly from diesel double cabs to EVs
The rebate scheme is affirming what people want in the market and looks like the market is responding.
I'm also hearing people say they are putting of buying a new ute until hybrids or BEVs come out later this year or early next. Unfortunately the decision is being driven by running cost and business image, rather than pure environmental thinking, but result is same.
Meanwhile, in Wyoming
Wyoming bill calls for ban on EV sales by 2035 (motorauthority.com)
They tried to ban motorcars in Queenstown NZ back in the day too, ended up with a flag man in front of the car on some roads for a while.
Good grief, really? Sounds like an invitation to angry petrol heads to revolt!
yes, and the other side wants to ban sell of the other cars. https://www.npr.org/2022/08/25/1119456396/california-is-set-to-ban-sales-of-new-gasoline-powered-cars-by-2035#:~:text=Press-,California%20bans%20the%20sale%20of%20gas%2Dpowered%20cars%20by%202035,global%20warming%20and%20health%20issues.
china too https://apnews.com/article/technology-china-electric-vehicles-south-sea-42eb8e86a31d24506c8e463a5af3a718
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-state-to-ban-sale-of-gasoline-powered-vehicles-by-2035-11664487387
it is literally just all a fucking useless tit for tat.
In fact both sides are just increasing anxiety and hate in voters. Cars are a tool for freedom for many people. People live in their cars/vans/rvs for heavens sake.
But then in the end neither side actually has anything meaningful to offer to those that need cars.
I mean here in NZ we are giving money to quite rich people to buy cars they can afford on their own, but we are not subsidizing a single EV bike, or better even an EV – Cargo bike. Nah, you environmental considerate person, go buy your own toys you lazy bludgers.
Its all just a constant ramping up of crappy feelings that both sides guilty of.
Neither one of them is courageous to admit that private transport will be phased out, will be a privilege for a very few, generally connected people with the correct credentials, whilst the rest can take a hike. No pun intended.
Neither one of the whole lot irrespective their house colors is courageous to admit that their tinkering on the edges has done nothing but frayed the edges, caused rips in the fabric and sadly we never created enough public transport to remove the need for private transport already years ago. And here we go, let us bamboozle you with meaningless drivel so that you can hype up the comrades.
Never mind, that the banning/phasing out of private transport is what is being implemented but as always it is sadly to late.
A box on both of their houses. May their buses be late, their trains broken down and their flights cancelled.
"May their buses be late, their trains broken down"
In Auckland, you've already got your wish
Symond Street. No buses for hours, suddenly all the buses at once.
T’was always so.
Symonds St. 100 bus movements an hour pre-pandemic. Basically a bus sewer. An even now – we have never waited more than 10 minutes for a bus.
That sounds good. I used to bus daily and it was hit and miss in 2010 – 2015 but if a bus were late it usually was several due to road mayhem elsewhere.
Ditto upper Queenstreet. Love the Onehunga Depot though. That was well done.
"black ute's matter" was their rather clever slogan
Getting more free dental care is like pulling teeth. It seems a no-brainer but one with a huge price tag, allegedly. Let’s see if National and/or ACT will sink their teeth into this. My guess is that apart from the usual hollow meaningless National SM flutters they won’t.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/free-dental-care-a-political-win-but-a-financial-nightmare
Thats a frankly absurd way to discuss dental care. The cost is completely irrelevant to the question.
Probably there are some serious questions, such as would dentists want to work for a nationalised service, how would treatment costs be allocated and would it be worth the restructuring process in results. That would be worth discussing.
I also expect changing from price rationing to need rationing would immediately demonstrate shortages of dentists.
No need to waste much time & energy on this as it is not top-priority. Government is clearing the desk for the policies that they will want to push through this year and an extension of free dental care ain’t one of those. If any other Party wants to campaign for/on it they’ll need to do the work and the onus is on them to sell it to the people aka voters. It is sensible politics in an election year, IMO.
The article covers the knowns.
The problem is lack of dentists and providing free service to those privileged enough to afford care now (and being in areas where they are available) is clearly not a priority.
There are not enough for free care to those under 18's (and problems getting services to isolated areas – mobile vehicles being one lack atm)***.
These are already in play
There has been the increase in subsidy for private dentist treatment (via Work and Income) from $300 to $1000 (improves chances to get a job/be work able).
I would add that examination for tooth removal at hospitals is free for those with CSC, and they also do the removal. Those not eligible such as those in work have been pulling their own teeth out.
There should be an extension of the free tooth removal to those on low incomes or otherwise a subsidy for such private dentist work.
The next need is a subsidy for an annual check for those with CSC and low income parents.
It is a known fact that poor dental care impacts on health – infections can lead to heart problems and thus cost to the health system.
https://locustfamilydentistry.com/5-reasons-why-oral-hygiene-is-important/
Free dental 'care' means different things to different people. To someone on a benefit or minimum wage it means getting a tooth ache fixed so they can do more than just exist. To a retiree it's getting properly fitting dentures or implants so they can eat and converse to have a life. To someone entering the workforce at a mid to upper level it's getting your teeth straightened so you look acceptable and can get a good job. to an up and coming manager or sales professional it getting the perfect smile to really look the part. The industry is geared about leading customers to the expensive options.
The cost of those services goes from a couple of hundred up into high tens of thousands + so setting the stage for some really intense boundary issues.
I'm not sure how well the free treatment for under 18 works for people who haven't a hope of ever affording more cosmetic dental work. The places are set up to be comfortable to people who can afford extensive treatments and are quite intimidating if you can't. I think we lost a lot when the School Dental Service was shut down, that should have been broadened to be a multi disciplinary school health service in all schools. But I'm biased, Mum worked at the murder house.
There used to be dental services through some of the DHBs at hospital level, but that was really for people who were in a very bad way and beyond a local anaesthetic.
Probably the best option would be to make the dentist a primary healthcare provider and fund them like GPs, with similar treatment pathways to public or private services at different levels and funding sources.
Right now though we're seeing people who are stuffed because they can't get, or afford dental care. Something's not working.
What is Newsroom doing? Is it becoming the media-friendly face for Government announcements? Where is the critical analysis?
Anywho:
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/pro/2023-when-rubber-hits-the-road-for-lgwm
National MPs seem to be stuck in potholes and ACT is racing to get the speed limits dropped but hardly anything else as far as I can tell.
Someone says something positive about Labour's policies/achievements and they must be biased Incog?
You have been reading the Herald too much.
On dental care I have been under the impression for at least 50 years that the handbrake, in fact the full emergency stop, has been down to dentists. In the late 40s or early50s I think it was when theGovt of the day dragged doctors kicking and screaming into subsidised care the dentists held out. That’s why dental care is so bloody expensive, the dentists did not want the government determining the fee structure.
https://twitter.com/nz_voter/status/1615420935317905408
Yep. Had the same conversation with a mechanic last week. Walked him round that circle and maybe moderated his pretty rabid anti Government attitude.
No business confidence is down because the people that shop, that need doctors/dentists/carfixed/houses bought/sold etc are telling everyone that they don't earn enough, their costs are through the roof, they are wondering if they can afford to still rent/pay the mortgage in a month times.
Business confidence is down because despite the 'low unemployment' it seems everyone needs either an emergency grant or a food parcel or ends up in emergency housing for lack of affordable rentals.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/govt-has-spent-1b-on-emergency-housing-grants-including-motel-accommodation/ZISPLXHMVIOIYV34HCE5KSJIVM/#:~:text=Currently%2C%20there%20are%20roughly%204000,New%20Zealand%20%E2%80%93%20many%20in%20motels.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/129337880/emergency-food-parcels-numbers-skyrocket-since-pandemic
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/i-have-never-seen-it-as-busy-huge-increase-in-struggling-families-needing-support/X5UIJ7RN3BDBNILCSXP73M7TJA/
Business confidence is down because you can't get ingredients, tools, materials etc and what ever you can get is getting more expensive by the day, costs that will be rolled over into the end price of said product that people eventually can't afford anymore and thus will go without it.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/476633/construction-costs-for-new-homes-rise-by-record-9-point-6-percent-over-12-months
Business confidence is down because you have two main parties that are seemingly out of touch with the reality that businesses are dealing with and well that does not bode well for the future.
Business confidence is down because you have a major war in Europe which most likely will spill over and escalate, and a whole lot of other quibbles that could seriously disrupt the world wide trading and dealings.
And 21.20 per week on a 30+ hour is not a lot before tax when your median rent is 580 NZD per week, your gorceries have gone up 10+%, never mind electricity and all the other jazz. And that too is something that businesses know, and they also know that you can not have enough increases in min wage to make up the lack of regulations in the rental market, food market, energy market. So even if you put the min wage to 50 per hour you would still not make enough for hte median wage of 1250 per week.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/130801129/by-the-numbers-the-rental-market-at-years-end
https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/annual-food-price-increase-remains-at-a-13-year-high-of-8-3-percent/#:~:text=of%208.3%20percent-,Annual%20food%20price%20increase%20remains%20at%20a,year%20high%20of%208.3%20percent&text=Food%20prices%20were%208.3%20percent,the%20highest%20since%20July%202009.
You can have high income, high inflation, 'low unemployment' and be poorer then you were ever before.
Underemployment at 9% https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/underutilisation-rate/
Youth Unemployment 9% https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/unemployed-persons#:~:text=In%20New%20Zealand%2C%20unemployed%20persons,and%20actively%20seeking%20to%20work.
Unemployment by 'sex'
and then of course what is employed vs unemployed
underemployement:
So no, we don't have a booming economy. We might have a few sectors that are 'booming' if you count banks making record profits on increasing interest rates as booming for example, but does that actually help the overall economy? And does it make for a good economic outlook? No, no it does not.
This year will be tough as there are many people due to come to the end of their mortgage fixed interest period and will likely face interest increases from around 3% to +6%. So people will have less money to spend in the economy. Also, rental interest deductibility on private rentals is reducing from 75% to only 50% being able to be claimed as a tax deduction (from 1April 2023). I will be increasing the rent on my property to cover this. Tenant has been there for more than 15 years and is totally understanding about it.
Interesting that you still have a mortgage after 15 years
As long as you could deduct the interest paid on a loan to buy the property from your taxable income you got as rent it would make very good sense to have a mortgage. Indeed you would be best off by never paying it off.
You might get a little worried if you were unable to rent the property out and you were as highly geared as that implies of course.
Was originally a 25 year mortgage so is now less than 1/2 original amount
Fair enough.
I have had my mortgage for 41 years, For about 30 of them, it had a zero balance. I did not discharge it so it just sat there until I wanted to borrow some more $$$$ about 5 years ago.
Bit of a downside of using monetary policy, rather than fiscal policy, to moderate demand. Even after deciding the OCR needs to go back it will be up to ~5 years before the prior decisions stop having impact. This generates a real risk of the RBNZ having ongoing, unwanted impacts and unnecessary overtightening.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/10/government-s-108b-tax-take-what-s-behind-the-haul-and-are-tax-cuts-on-the-table.html
The following shows
New Zealand Tax Revenue was reported at 78.791 USD bn in Dec 2022 up from 76.972 USD bn for Dec 2021. Note this is in US dollars.
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/new-zealand/tax-revenue
It’s over NZ $120B.
There is another way to understand these budget forecast errors.
The deficit (surplus) in the budget is associated with an acceptable inflation forecast. When the deficit is over-estimated (as happens frequently) that says the forecast error amount in public spending was left on the table within budgeted inflation forecasts.
There's the other side to that with clients stepping back from the market until things settle down a bit. Heck, six months work ahead of you in construction is normally good times.
Six months work in todays market is half a house….in other words no forward orders.
Actually a 'normal' state for most builders in normal trading conditions.
Once the forward work gets out to 12 months prices start going silly and clients start dropping out of the market.
The last three years have been exceptional for the building industry, probably the best ever for the work that's out there. It's good to see it moving back to some sanity.
The cure for high prices is high prices….whats the cure for debt defaults?
"Concerns about failures in the building industry are beginning to be backed up by statistics.
Nearly a quarter of all liquidations last month were businesses from the building and construction sector.
Simplicity Living's Shane Brealey said within six months the construction of new homes will halve and the industry will basically "fall off a cliff".
He believes the industry could lose up to 45,000 jobs"
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/12/building-industry-downturn-could-cost-45-000-jobs-as-construction-halves-expert.html
Judges need to actually impose a sentence that keeps people like this who constantly re-offend off the street to keep the public safe. Three months community detention……what a joke. He's probably already driving again!
Lets hope they actually get around to installing the alcohol interlock although that doesn't stop him jumping into another vehicle.
Drink-driver gives up attempt to flee police, sculls beer, throws away keys before arrest – NZ Herald
You would have thrown him jail, no doubt, for how long? And then what?
Only Judge Jimmy can judge Right.
The current deterrents are obviously not working. And from the article:
"although he was attending counselling, Judge Krebs described his cavalier attitude of having a beer before his sessions as “counterproductive”."
I would hate to be driving (or riding my bike) on the same road. The judge did say it warranted a prison sentence.
Perhaps while in jail (I would suggest three to four months in jail) attending compulsory alcohol counselling where hopefully he cannot drink beforehand may make a difference. The interlocking device although not foolproof should be compulsory after jail IMO.
A very considered and bold sentence by Judge Jonathan, IMO. Judge Jimmy still has a lot to learn.
This wouldn't get the tick from judge Jimmy as we all know the intensive supervision would not be possible we do not have the resources, and he will coming and going as he pleases with an occasional check to see if he is sticking to the rules (of which he hasn't previously). Even the terrorist bloke who stabbed people in Countdown Lynn Mall had constant supervision.
Be interesting to see if he gets caught again driving in several months time and we have the same debate.
Being taxed into penury would be too good for this fucker. Let's eat him.
https://twitter.com/yasmin_poole/status/1615133384036040709
No surly he isn't a complete arshole, I mean national gave him citizenship didn't they?
Not a complete arshole.
The PayPal cofounder Peter Thiel said in 2020 that crypto was one of two poles of technological conflict, the other being artificial intelligence. AI could “theoretically make it possible to centrally control an entire economy” while crypto “holds out the prospect of a decentralised and individualised world”. He concluded that AI is communist and crypto is libertarian; it was unnecessary to add which of those he thought was better.
[…]
I think Thiel is right: crypto is the ultimate technology of libertarianism, the final frontier of discovery. He just missed the second footfall, which is that, through crypto, we will discover that libertarianism is bullshit.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/17/whats-the-true-value-of-crypto-it-lays-bare-the-lies-of-libertarians-ftx
Well…you'd need a LOT of something, to hide the shit taste …
But yea a creepy scumbag for sure. Back in time he might have been a Count..(Count, I say : ) in a castle on the lurk for "wirgen blood"…
But apparently..Now…he is NOT a vampire
Still..he is some kind of blood sucker.
These people are disgusting.
https://twitter.com/RawiriTaonui/status/1615024623489544194
1990 National cut benefits because of budget concern and yet also ended the estate tax.
2008 Key increased GST to afford promised income tax cuts.
2023 ACT want to reduce the incomes of the poor and cut tax for the rich.
What’s the dirty politics going on in the National Party in Tukituki?
”Allegations of “dirty politics” have emerged from a National Party candidate selection, with one would-be MP claiming “concocted fabrications” and “half-truths” surround his bid for Parliament.”
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/01/election-2023-allegations-of-dirty-politics-in-national-candidate-selection-as-parties-set-to-kick-off-political-year.html
Tenants starting to see some justice after 2000 years. In this case a win for wrongful eviction. That's nice but what is better is the Tenancy Tribunal is finally slamming slumlords with (slightly) better fines and reparations. Said landlord had to pay the tenant $2000 for two years of illegal dealings. But that's just $20/week fine over the length of tenancy. Still a long way to go before amateur landlordism is crushed for good.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/tenant-given-notice-after-sparking-council-investigation-over-missing-rubbish-bin/2R6XYLIOWVCRBAEEYZDKJORTA4/
Eugenie Sage is leaving parliament this year, and I just heard on twitter that Jan Logie is too. Those are two experienced MPs the Greens are losing.
https://twitter.com/Adam_Currie_NZ/status/1615571431768850432