One News CB Poll July 2020

Written By: te reo putake - Date published: - 132 comments
Categories: class war, Dirty Politics, election 2020, Gerry Brownlee, greens, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, labour, Media, nz first, Politics, same old national

TVNZ’s latest Colmar Brunton poll is released at 6pm. This post will be updated with the results then. In the meantime, some context:

The June Colmar Brunton saw a 9% swing from Labour to National under the exciting new leadership of Todd Muller. However, if replicated on election day, it still would have seen Labour able to govern alone.

Colmar Brunton poll, June 2020:

The poll before that was even worse, with the Tories on 29% and Labour nearing 60%.

Feel free to have a guess at tonight’s result. Me, I reckon National’s vote will still be in the thirties. If it’s lower than that, Judith Collins will look like a busted flush, an idea whose time has come … and gone.

UPDATE:

Labour: 53%, up 3. National: 32% down 6. The Greens: 5% down 1. ACT: 5% up 2.  NZ First: 2% no change.

 

Good news for Labour and the new leader of the opposition, David Seymour. The defection of significant numbers of Nats to the Epsom Gun Club is a sure sign their voters know the game is up for the Tories.

Collins makes an impact in the preferred PM though: Ardern is steady on 54%, Collins is 20%, up 18%.  Peters and Seymour both have 1%.

 

 

132 comments on “One News CB Poll July 2020”

Comment numbers have changed to permanent references. Older quoted numbers may no longer identify the same comment.

      1. 1.2.1

        We were invited to take a punt: "Feel free to have a guess at tonight’s result." Once the poll was broadcast, TRP added his update…

  3. 3

    .
    Lab 55%

    Nat 32%

    Green 5%

    ACT 3.4%

    NZF 2.6%

    Other 2.3%

    (= slightly over 100 due to rounding of larger Parties)

    Mind you, on those very rare occasions when a Curia is leaked & a Colmar Brunton comes out around the same time … the Nats always do better in the CB than their own Internals …

    … BUT (1) very few cases + (2) Curia leaked strategically / selectively so not necessarily typical … + (3) an impending CB more Nat-friendly than Curia's 47/36 (or 49/36) would mean an absolutely unprecedented divergence from Newshub RR Poll …

    … so, while a close CB would certainly throw the cat among the pigeons, I'm sticking with the idea that the latest Nat internals & June CB were outliers … & that July CB will fall between the Newshub & Curia extremes. (Ardern gave a subtle hint a few days ago that the Newshub poll might be a little too high for Labour … presumably based on her knowledge of latest UMRs).

    But then … what to make of this ? … Tweeted 40 minutes ago … New Account / 1 follower / 0 follows … genuine or bogus ?

    https://twitter.com/ColmarPoll/status/1288701390156525569

    1. 3.1

      If genuine … egg on face time for Judith, Gerry & DPF.

      And apologies all around to TV3 Newshub & Reid Research.

  4. 4

    Wasn’t there some speculation when National ‘leaked’ their internals earlier this week that there were two sets of numbers and the ones given to the media weren’t the most recent?

      1. 6.1.1

        perhaps..but I suspect they'll do a little better than their current numbers when it counts…Winston First however i think not

      2. 6.1.2

        The stability of the Greens' base is one of the remarkable features of NZ polling in 2020. No minor party supporting a government has ever done so well, in 24 years of MMP (a historical, mathematical fact).

        1. 6.1.2.1

          A fact, or a pure fantasy !

          Greens are history this election, and Labour don't need the extra baggage while governing in their own right.

          Greens are normally heading north in the polls at this time in the election cycle, yet this time they are heading south. Given their traditional 2-3% drop election night, it's all over red rover.

          Wonder is Tax is still Love ???

          Jacinda has this in the bag

          1. 6.1.2.1.1

            A fact. As stated. Feel free to rebut with a single example of a party's support holding up in the same way.

            If "Jacinda has this in the bag" (and I certainly hope so) that makes it all the more likely that the Greens will benefit. Think that one through.

            If they can survive damaging dramas like Corngate and the Metiria story then they can certainly stay above the threshold in the good times.

          2. 6.1.2.1.2

            Climate change and helping the neediest is everything. Unless a party makes a superior argument for that the Greens are the best next govt.

        1. 6.3.1.1

          Or maybe those Nat-to-ACT just think Seymour will be a more effective opposition than Judthulhu.

          But in the preferred PM stakes …

          edit: hmm, trying to adjust the image width didn’t quite work as expected. But the result works anyway.

          [Image resized so we can see the Kingmaker too – Incognito]

          1. 6.3.1.1.1

            He he Jessica looks a little shorter and wider than normal- you have a"through the looking glass vibe" going

        2. 6.3.2.2

          Excellent.

          If Rimmer does half as well as the poll shows, and he gets a buddy in the beehive, Gordon Brittas may become more appropriate.

      1. 8.1.1

        So when Jack asked her about the difference to the RR result, she said it was due to the more immediate reaction (shock/horror) to the Nat misbehaviour & CB polling in the aftermath of that period. This assumption that volatility is the key to the difference seems to have been floated as an alternative to the `rogue' thesis. Chalk one up for my pinball theory, eh?

        The only real news is that some Nats have agreed to jump to ACT to provide National with a coalition partner. I was seeing the word on that getting agreement on rightist blogs recently. Only works if National gets back up into the ballpark again.

  10. 10

    Stuff reporting that National “have closed the gap”. They’re deliberately referencing this Colmar Brunton against the RR Newshub poll rather than against the previous CB which has seen National drop 6 points and Labour climb by 3.

    1. 10.1

      Yeah the idea that polls sample the public mood is widespread. The idea that different pollsters sample different publics is not!

  11. 11

    A predictable – and widely predicted – poll result.

    I'm enjoying the tables being turned on one aspect in particular. For years Labour in opposition had to endure the misguided media analysis of MMP (i.e. headlines focusing on Nats v Labour, not the right and left blocs).

    Now ACT are no longer at their customary 1%, it's National who suffer by comparison. The Right can protest ("it's the bloc!") and they'd be right, but it's a bit late to discover this.

    (obviously the numbers still don't add up for the Right, not by a long way, but it was Collins herself who cited 35 for job security, so tough bikkies).

    1. 11.1

      I'd like to see a Lab/Green coalition than a Labour only, even if Lab do return 55% on the day.

      But I do think what you highlight is one of the areas that doesn't work for MMP, in that the major parties have become much more moderate and it being much more difficult to contest elections on ideas rather than personalities.

      The Green vote in the dark days never really dragged Labour left, it just made victory dependent on moving to the centre, rather than moving the centre left (maybe…I'm mostly musing, and know that's not really the subject of your post)

      1. 11.1.1

        Interesting observations Scott but the UK election under FPP was entirely personality fought.

        OK. It was the character assasination of Jeremy Corbyn by the MSM but still personality fought.

        [Corrected minor typo in user name. Unfortunately, there’s another user with an almost identical user name. Therefore, it is important that readers/commenters can tell the difference and don’t confuse the two of you – Incognito]

        1. 11.1.1.1

          [Corrected minor typo in user name. Unfortunately, there’s another user with an almost identical user name. Therefore, it is important that readers/commenters can tell the difference and don’t confuse the two of you – Incognito]

  12. 12

    Judith is definitely looking and acting like a Prime Minister in waiting . Jacinda needs to avoid campaigning on her lockdown abilities and tell us how we are going to get out of this mess.

        1. 12.1.1.1

          Speak for yourself Robert.It is a good time to be a dairy farmer,and it is very satisfying to know that your efforts are helping everyone recover from the economic effects of the political management of this dreadfull disease.

    4. 12.4

      Presuming that the legendary kiwi complacency is no longer prevalent? Gee, you're even more radical than me. If, by mess, you mean the pandemic, the chances that Labour can take us by rocket ship through a wormhole to a pandemic-free Aotearoa in a different part of the multiverse appear slim.

    5. 12.5

      Judith is definitely looking and acting like a Prime Minister in waiting

      Are you sure?

      Party support for the nat's has dropped by 6%, is that a reflection of her leadership?

      2. 12.5.2

        Judith is looking and acting like a Prime Minister in waiting?

        Waiting for the bus to take her to the repository for discarded National leaders?

    11. 12.11

      Well, it isnt going to be by cutting benefits, cutting wages and Americanising our health care. Nor is it by allowing people like you to further fuck the water table up in your pursuit of profits.

  13. 13

    Collins' 20% debut in Colmar Brunton Preferred PM was entirely predictable … long-time high-profile = name recognition, popular with Party base, election campaign visibility … her debut is higher than Brash in 2003 (15%) but a little lower than English in 2001 (21%).

    Key measure is Ardern-Collins gap … an enormous 34 points.

    1. 13.1

      When 82% of voters trust a country's leader, they don't lose elections. Not in any democracy, anywhere, any time.

      The party vote numbers always get the headlines, but Ardern's numbers have been so constant for so long that they are no longer "news".

      2. 13.1.2

        " but Ardern's numbers have been so constant for so long that they are no longer "news" " – this, yes.

      3. 13.1.3

        Prior to Covid national under bridges was out polling labour and was polling at numbers that would see them return to the government benches – despite bridges lack of popularity – so your thinking is extremely flawed.

        1. 13.1.3.1

          It's not "flawed", it's the evidence of history. Name an incumbent in any democracy who lost, with such numbers.

          I'm not sure what it is proved by imagining the big thing that happened, didn't. What election is there except the real one?

    2. 13.2

      .
      Comparison: Colmar Brunton Polls at same point before 2011 / 2020 Elections
      (end of New 1st term Govts seeking re-election)

      [A little less than 2 Months out]

      2011 / 2020

      Lab 29 / 53

      Green 9 / 5

      NZF 1.9 / 2

      Nat 56 / 32

      ACT 1.3 / 4.8
      .

      Preferred PM

      Key 59 / Ardern 54

      Goff 8 / Collins 20

      .

    4. 13.4

      one third of national party voters don't want her as prime minister

      as Tova obrien said on Tuesday, the voting public dont trust you Judith

      including a good chunk of her own party voters

        1. 13.4.1.1

          Indeed Ian good point, it might be a case of "takes one to know one" in terms of Judith's trustworthiness

  14. 14

    Seymour will get Epsom for sure.

    Collin's on 20% for preferred PM falls short considering her experience.

    It is clear that votes for Labour will not be wasted.

    The only hope for NZ First is that Shane Jones wins the Northland seat.

    1. 14.1

      I wonder if Goldsmith is thinking his only way back to parliament is by taking Epsom as an electorate MP. Nat list mp's look a bit endangered.

    2. 14.2

      @ Treetop (14) …

      "The only hope for NZ First is that Shane Jones wins the Northland seat."

      I sincerely hope not! Because if Jones wins the seat, it will give Peters another three years of oxygen space in Parliament (not to mention Jones himself and Ron Mark)! The only talent in NZF is Tracey Martin.

  15. 15

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_New_Zealand_general_election

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2014_New_Zealand_general_election

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2011_New_Zealand_general_election

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2008_New_Zealand_general_election

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2005_New_Zealand_general_election

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2002_New_Zealand_general_election

  17. 17

    Quite obviously there will be a very strong 'gun lobby' in the next Parliament with ACT tied to it. Many of them will be there for the next two to five election cycles – so we need to get prepared.

    The "Epsom Gun Club" is awash with its share of the $102 millions paid out for semi-automatics – most of those people bolted from NZFirst to ACT rather than transferred their allegiance from the Nats.

    Every action has an opposite action – and these persons are taught to punch back twice as hard.

    1. 17.1

      Third on the list is gun lobbyist Nicole McKee, who headed up the campaign against the Government's recent gun laws and is also running in the safe Labour seat of Rongotai.

      ACT was the only party to vote against the first tranche of gun reforms passed in the wake of the March 15 terror attack and has seen a slight increase in support ever since

      https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300044090/act-reveals-new-list-elects-27yearold-staffer-deputy-leader-and-puts-gun-lobbyist-at-number-three

      1. 17.1.1

        I always thought that having a Maori woman be the spokesperson for the gun lobby in this country after the CHC shootings was anything but co-incidental.

    2. 17.2

      Law changes lead to a new status quo. It's much harder to reverse laws than simply oppose them when they are proposed and go through Parliament.

      I'd suggest there is no chance of National agreeing to abolish an existing gun registry, which is what NZ will have. Or roll back other gun reforms in any significant way. And there is certainly no chance of ACT saying to National "in that case we withdraw support on confidence and supply". National could double income tax and Seymour still wouldn't do that.

    3. 17.3

      The gun culture can stay in the USA. Aside from this, Seymour has worked hard and will be rewarded in having a caucus. Maybe Collins needs to look at what is making Seymour successful.

      2. 17.3.2

        "gun culture" has always been here – somewhat different to the US version…

        But it has now been radicalised and has stepped openly in to the political arena both with ACT and New Conservatives.

        They are certainly ready to push back and make demands upon any who wish to represent them … and have their votes.

        This is something that has yet to play out and time will tell if they will become more part of mainstream politics.

        1. 17.3.2.1

          There has been a steady influx of extremely conservative right wing South Africans come into the country over the past 15-20 years. These people are bascially the Christian Taliban, and hold very right wing and more often than not, racist views.

      1. 18.1.1

        More NZ First voters going to Act. I think some centre Nat voters who are or who will be unemployed are going to Labour this election cycle.

  20. 20

    I wonder if Goldsmith is thinking his only way back to parliament is by taking Epsom as an electorate MP. Nat list mp's look a bit endangered.

    1. 20.1

      He'll be in the top 4 (list due next week) so I'd say 99% safe. National MPs will lose enough electorates to save candidates at the top of the list.

  21. 21

    so this must be the rogue poll National have been banging on about

    averaging the 2 recent polls, National on about 28/29 %

    seems about accurate

    voters liking for judith collins is about 10% below her party vote

    both polls show that

    so one third of National Party voters dont like or trust Collins

    interesting and telling that fact alone

  24. 24

    Act's polling is a very impressive recovery. If they get over 5% they don't need Epsom.

    Do we presume that the Greens's base is loyal enough to turn out to get them over the line? Presumably the overseas votes will help them over the line.

    Jones in Northland is now do-or-die for NZF.

    2. 24.2

      Very scary having ACT at 5%. Lord help us if they get in government. Homelessness would double, for a start.

  25. 25

    David Cormack talking about polls on Checkpoint tonight said that there was something coming soon about Operation Burnham which will be a further blow to National?

    1. 25.1

      Very interesting. Thanks for that ScottGN.

      Since its the season for punting I'll have a go:

      At some point after Operation Burnham was carried out, there was a combined cover-up involving both the American and the NZ contingents involved in the raid in an effort to ensure the mistakes made would never be publicly revealed. And that cover-up took place at a very high level of power.

      We should know tomorrow. 😉

    1. 26.1

      Surely the back benches with in the National Party will be getting nervous as to their future ?

      Many did not want Collins or Gerry as their leaders any way,

      Time is running out, so if they are going to make a move against JC, it will be in the next week or so.

  27. 27

    https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/heather-du-plessis-allan-drive/audio/barry-soper-latest-tvnz-poll-proves-newshub-one-was-an-outlier/

    Newstalk ZB think National will win the election based on this poll -because Judith Colins has good approval ratings and Act’s rise should be enough to form the next Govt as the gap between the two major parties closes.

    Here is a message to Soper and Du-Plessis -Allen "Your dreaming, because if the gap closed up Labour and Greens voters would vote tactitly in Epson (theres always a first time)–eat that !"

      1. 27.1.1

        In Epsom Brian? I want what they're smoking in Epsom too. -just imagine if Act got 4.9 and Labour and Greens voters voted tactitly in Epsom and knocked Act out of parliament -just imagine ! Dream big and good shit will happen!- National Black Ops Team smoke that 🙃

  28. 28

    Save the celebrations till 10pm, on Sept 19th. Not a moment before.

    It's not in the bag yet. We still have 3 debates to go through, plus the campaign hasnt even started yet.

    Think tortise and hare,.

    1. 28.1

      The last couple of elections the nat's have lost a seat after the special votes were counted.

      I'm predicting a record number of special votes this election.

    2. 28.2

      Does anybody really place any stock in these faux staged debates.

      All you hear is politicians reciting scripted answers to pre formulated questions.

      If people are undecided voters at this stage, then perhaps they don't hold sufficient intelligence to vote in the first place.

      1. 28.2.1

        Hey, you couldn't understand the proposed legislation for charging for managed isolation so perhaps you shouldn't make judgements on the intelligence of others.

  29. 29

    I rather hate all these comments on the froth of the waves of surface politics. 70s politics, fine, but everything matters now. And actually wasn't deep politics much more important than surface waves over the last 36 years since 1984. The move of our country to the 'meritocratic' rich and the leaving behind of , well, it amounts to, 80 %.

    And why do I expect a Labour Movement site to react negatively to this point of view?!

    1. 29.1

      I don't dispute that ' everything matters now' . Being metriocratic would that not be the best kind of democracy, sumsuch?

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