Written By:
- Date published:
12:36 pm, March 27th, 2026 - 23 comments
Categories: 2026 oil crisis, energy, uncategorized -
Tags: National Fuel Plan, strait of hormuz
NZH’s livestream,
RNZ’s write up of the press conference,
Government reveals details of fuel crisis rationing plan – and who will be prioritised
The government has fleshed out its National Fuel Plan, outlining rationing measures that would be taken if supplies start running dry.
Resembling the Covid alert levels, the plan has four ‘phases’. New Zealand is at phase one.
Phase 2 would see homes, businesses and the public sector encouraged to conserve fuel.
The higher phases are still under consultation.
Phase 3 would see fuel prioritised for life-preserving services and phase 4 would see stricter intervention in fuel distribution.
Moving up or down levels is decided by a ministerial oversight group based on fuel stocks, restrictions and supply chain data.
…
- The government has fleshed out its National Fuel Plan, outlining rationing measures that would be taken if supplies start running dry.
Resembling the Covid alert levels, the plan has four ‘phases’. New Zealand is at phase one.
Phase 2 would see homes, businesses and the public sector encouraged to conserve fuel.
The higher phases are still under consultation.
Phase 3 would see fuel prioritised for life-preserving services and phase 4 would see stricter intervention in fuel distribution.
Moving up or down levels is decided by a ministerial oversight group based on fuel stocks, restrictions and supply chain data.
…
“New Zealand has sufficient fuel stocks, but we are planning for potential scenarios where obtaining future supply could become increasingly difficult.”
The criteria for changing phases were:
- export restrictions – if any of New Zealand’s source refineries introduce or relax export restrictions
- changes to New Zealand’s fuel stock levels of plus or minus three days since the most recent published update
- a fuel company informs the government that they are unlikely or unable to fill future orders
- a breach, or a notification of an imminent breach, of the minimum storage obligations
- any significant policy changes in Australia or from the International Energy Agency
- a significant disruption to regional distribution.
One key point is that none of the existing supply contracts have been cancelled.
There’s a lot of detail in the press conference, outlining deep government department planning. This will be a relief to those of us who’ve been wondering why the government has appeared to be sitting on its hands.
Near the end Willis talks about the EECA providing education and an ad campaign on how people can save energy themselves. Willis makes a point of saying that this isn’t the government telling people what to do.
Only one question: where is the Prime Minister? I thought he was the one in charge.
It's obvious he's been actively managed to stay out of the public eye from now on, he can't communicate anything at all without management speak.
Willis is good in the press conference. Jones is painful to listen to, he doesn't sound confident that he knows what he is doing. I don't listen to him often so can't tell if that's just how he communicates or not.
Willis: US-Israel attacks on Iran "hurting all Kiwis".
Wellington.Scoop » Govt to pay $50 a week to low-income families unable to afford increased fuel costs
Willis' (nominal) boss: supports those attacks on Iran which are "hurting all Kiwis".
Or at least, he did a couple of weeks ago. As you rightly say, he is now being kept away from the subject as much as possible, in case the reporters wake up and start challenging him on the cause (that he welcomed) instead of the consequences (that he doesn't).
And then ask very obvious questions about Luxon's terrible judgement. War in Middle East is bad, who could possibly have predicted that?
Jenna Lynch backs this up with more detail:
A crisis can be an opportunity, and Christopher Luxon is missing his moment | Stuff
What brilliant Beehive strategist has decided that the best use of the PM is to hide him? And that it can somehow continue for 8 months?
Dumping him was the best option, but there was a reasonable case for the alternative: he stays and wins voter approval with his leadership, his "CEO in a crisis" mode. Carpe diem and all that.
There is no case at all for keeping him and hoping nobody notices his absence.
A friend of mine that does a lot of work for a local national electorate has been toting out the lines that Luxon is managing the different factions and that is why he is best for thr role.
So this will play into that line, he sends out the people "best" suited for the plans whilst he sits back and manages everything. That he isnt like flashy showy jacinda who was always wanting to be in front of everything and announcing everything.
The true answer is he is shit and this is a way to minimize the publics reaction to him…
in the MSM Q&A, Jones is talking about 'option to buy', but I missed the details. Large reliance on trusting the refineries to tell us if there's going to be a problem.
Also outlining other options than the Middle East.
I guess we might see if the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Singapore (which has refineries) is worth the paper it is written on :
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/575559/singapore-and-new-zealand-sign-strategic-partnership
"…Both countries also concluded an Agreement on Trade in Essential Supplies, a first of its kind deal to keep essential goods moving in times of crisis…"
Had to have a cynical wry chuckle listening to Chris Bishop on the radio this morning.
Talking about not introducing a fuel tax. The first thought was that that was a move that would favour the government and its chances of re-election. Very little to do with managing tenuous amounts of fuel supplies.
But hey tories got to tory.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/590791/government-may-pause-fuel-taxes-increases
There's a right-wing government for you. It's all laissez-faire, individual freedom, "no nanny state" until laissez-faire leads to serious fuel shortages, at which point they implement full-on draconian emergency measures with "The soldiers will be carrying live ammunition" messaging.
Here's an example, farms not getting fuel, with this ironic comment "So yeah, we just have to keep going into town getting 20-litre containers. It seems a bit crazy to be going and burning fuel to go and get more fuel.". & this is just at the beginning of it all, https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/590787/farms-running-dry-of-fuel-as-rural-distributors-struggle-with-allocation
my first question is why their pumps are diesel not electric.
Second question is, wait, what? the fuel importers are placing restrictions on farms, wtaf? And why didn't RNZ find out what the rationing criteria are?
Many farms are on roads where the power lines are not up to carrying large loads and the cost of upgrading the network is not economic for so few users. I know of several dairy farms in my community that spend thousands per month on diesel to power their dairy sheds and irrigation systems as they can't get the electricity.
thanks. And the farms that did end up connected had major upgrades to the lines and are a big drain on our supply. None of that is remotely sustainable.
This is free market ideology for you. Individuals look at markets to be informed and then make rational decisions accordingly in their best interest
and that of everyone else. In times of crisis the assumption of rationality is severely tested (panic buying). Ideologues such as Dr Eric Crampton, Nicola Willis, and Christopher Luxon (https://thestandard.nz/open-mike-23-03-2026/#comment-2058741) think that the ideology will prevail over government regulation and intervention. Of course, they’re dreaming.Another irony being if we had solid leadership we could trust there wouldn't be hoarding, panic buying etc.
I also like the farmers pleading for people to not put their own self interest first, jeez they're starting to sound… socialist.
Oh, that's just sad. "…it would be up to each person on how they navigate it."
Because price rises are a form of rationing, as Eric Crampton would tell us. An excellent and efficient form of rationing from a National-led government perspective, because wealth is a proxy for merit.
That won't help us any when Luxon's sitting there ashen-faced while someone tells him South Korea and Singapore have declared force majeure and no fuel is coming our way for the next few months, which means food riots in X weeks. Suddenly, the individual freedom of each person deciding how they navigate things comes a poor second to soldiers with live ammo ensuring people starve without disturbing the peace.
With the United States having a complete collapse of institutional decision-making process across all leadership levels, the buildup of US marines for a massive invasion is now extremely likely.
WE have comprehensive diplomatic failure already this week and there’s no going back for either side.
That means major shipping chaos for months not weeks.
So we know what that means for us.
Previous Minister Woods relied extensively on forward contracts with refineries from Singapore. We are about to get the real test to see where we are in the queue.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/26/hegseth-prayer-violence-pentagon
"Hegseth prays at Pentagon service for ‘overwhelming violence’ against enemies"
Fascist clowns in ill-fitting shoes.
what are the other options for buy fuel (or the refineries buying oil)? She seemed to think we had some.
All we can really do is hope that Trump lives up to his nickname. TACO.
Otherwise, if the oil crisis drags on for 3/4 months, our economy is in sure trouble.
He's already been chickening out, he keeps extending his 'bottom line', 5 days, another 3 days, 10 days … thank goodness really.
Isn't the delay just to look reasonable while waiting for sufficient US troops to arrive in the middle East to invade Kharg Island and try to take to Iranian coast overlooking the Strait of Hormuz. Two times so far negotiations and acting reasonably on Trump's part has been subterfuge for bombing Iran.
This crisis must be a nightmare for Channel Infrastructure who must have been operating a Just In Time inventory system up until now, relying on main storage tanks emptying just enough to fit in the latest cargo as it arrives in port. There don't seem to be empty tanks just sitting there just in case.
A sudden drop in demand ie driving efficiencies, no money to pay for petrol etc throws all their careful economic modelling out the window. No wonder they are all panicking.