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2:21 pm, December 8th, 2025 - 13 comments
Categories: business, crime, Debt, Economy, education, health, national, same old national, tax, unemployment -
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That’s the headline of the pamphlet in the letterbox.
But from their own measures is that true?
In November 2026, we can tick the box that gives our own answer.
Is this National-led government changing New Zealand for the better?
Like the previous government, the current government has set itself targets to achieve over things it has a fairly high degree of control. They released a set of these indicators in September.
Not coincidentally, National also distributed a pamphlet in November to most New Zealand letterboxes claiming that it was getting the country back on track.
They will of course go to the 2026 election using their track record for voters and pundits to determine if they have improved New Zealand or not. So the measures and the claims have political weight.
They have set 9 targets.
1. Shorter stays in emergency departments
Their target is 95% and they are achieving 74%.
2. Shorter wait times for elective treatment.
Their target is 95% and they are achieving 64%, but this is better than it was.
3. Reduced child and youth offending.
Their target was a 15% reduction in child and youth serious offending, and they are tracking well for this measure. Notice that there is no mention of child poverty reduction targets, which the Labour government was tracking as its own measure.
4. Reducing violent crime.
Their target was 20,000 fewer victims of assault, sexual assault, or violent crime. Their target is on track.
5. Fewer people on the JobSeeker Support benefit.
Their target was a reduction of 50,000, and they are definitely not meeting this one.
6. Increased student attendance.
Their target is 80% of students are present for 90% of term. There is improvement, and better visibility of the data needed.
7. More students at expected curriculum levels.
Their target is 80% of Year 8 students hitting the mark in reading , writing, and maths. Not looking good on this one yet.
8. Fewer people in emergency housing
The target is on track for this one. To achieve it they simply pushed the poor out, and made it nearly impossible to get in.
9. Reduced net greenhouse gas emissions
The target is total net emissions of no more than 290 megetonnes to 2025, and 305 megatonnes and 305 to 2030.
Target is on track. Until you compare it to the much higher and more ambitious target that Labour set in the previous government.
Of the 9 targets they set themselves, they are performing well in numbers 3, 4, 8, and 9. That’s 4 out of the 9 they set to achieve.
In the pamphlet that they sent to peoples’ letterboxes, we can just go through the real headlines.
“Reduced wasteful spending, cutting inflation, and driving down mortgage rates.”
The Crown’s net debt is $186.5 billion. That’s 42.8% of the entire NZ economy. It was about $175 billion when they took office.
Inflation and mortgage rates are indeed down. Government income is way down. The entire economy is down.
“Delivered tax relief”
If anyone noticed, it would be a surprise, because it had no effect either for households or on the economy overall.
“Introduced investment boost”
New Zealand business investment intentions continue to be terrible.
An article which sums up for me our present state under this government, is that in the region with the highest unemployment, the most buoyant economy, and the strongest businesses, poverty is still skyrocketing. Take it away Southland.
Salvation Army Invercargill community ministries manager Cathy Strong said it was “shocking” to see the number of new families coming through their doors, which included a bump in the middle-income demographic
If like me you are working and crawling towards the finish line of 2025, there is no sense I can gather that people are more prosperous, more confident, more socially resilient and connected, or clear about where we are going.
National has had solid sustained policy-driven success in crime and education and they should take modest credit for that. But otherwise from even the low bars they have set themselves, they are failing New Zealand.
Your appraisal seems realistic. Perhaps mark the report card (do they still do that?) "Must try harder." Yet unlikely to improve even if they do, since they're on the wrong track due to the trickery of the great shunt-controlling, rail-switching, deity in the sky.
The entire economy is down.
Nah, that's just how it seems. The reality is itemised in corporate profits for the year. You could post an assessment of those as a reality-check, huh? Capitalism is an extremely resilient system due to being self-organising: participants never have much of a problem with privatising wealth. Others suffer the exploitation required, and socialising costs always works like a dream. Life is good!
We could do with a local version of this Canadian Tracks to Nowhere………
I disagree. Taking single-point snapshots and using simplistic metrics is lazy and likely to mislead when dealing with such complex issues that require longitudinal monitoring processes to measure progress (aka ‘success’). Of course, those won’t suit the short parliamentary cycle.
Beyond the metrics is key to law and order, because no matter their successes, the top two tiers of Police management have been shown to be about as corrupt as they can be and completely calls into question any remaining use of the IPCC and the integrity of the Minister of Police, such that the PM is finally having to front for it all.
Law and order should have been a political summer barbeque gift, and now it's just a badly rotting fish.
Well. In education, which is one of my areas of expertise, they are using dodgy obfuscation of statistics, to conceal the mess that are making.
Defunding programmes that work, in favour of previously tried, and failed, "One size fits all, "magical fixes".
Going back to the 1950's in ideas about rote learning and stifling creativity, innovation and critical thinking.
If they had the deliberate aim of fucking up state schooling to make charter schools look good, their policies make sense. Otherwise they are causing a whole lot of disruption which, like Nationals last "unfortunate experiment" in education may not show up for a decade, as the unlucky subjects get to year 13.
The interest rates are down thing is the most dumb point imaginable. First off, of course the RBNZ lowered the OCR, the government completely unnecessarily cratered the economy causing many to struggle with mortgage repayments coupled with excess unemployment and thats all the RBNZ has to combat this. Its now claiming success due a policy which takes up to 2 years to kick in.
Further its not well understood that we borrow all government spending expressly so that the RBNZ can influence interest rates via the OCR. If we didn't borrow this spending back then the 90-day bills rates and many interest rates would be automatically lower, near zero.
Similar issue in Japanese monetary policy
"Provisioning of sufficient liquidity, however, may induce the uncollateralized overnight call rate (the policy interest rate) to sharply fall below its targeted level."
So we systematically pay corporate welfare to the banks in order to claim success when the government and RBNZ are pushing the economy in opposite directions at the same time.
Increased student attendance is a joke.
I'm not sure how it's done in the rest of the country but at the 2 schools my kids go to, they have awards for 100% attendance each term and for the year overall with prizes and treats.
100% attendance means exactly that. Justified absences count against you just as much as wagging. Caught COVID? Had a medical appointment? Parent died and the funeral was midweek? No awards or treats for you.
In the end I've seen three types of reactions from students: Most just ignore the awards knowing that they are out of reach and trying not to feel too jealous of the rewards the few receive. Some know they are out of reach for reasons beyond their control and give up on regular attendance all together. Some work desperately to achieve it by refusing to go to their grandmothers funeral, coming to school with COVID or some other illness and claim the rewards trying to ignore the cost that has had on their family and other students.
Tell me how this achieves the goal of increasing attendance overall.
I remember getting those when I was at school in the 90s so that's not a new award. Agree with your points about how unfair it can feel to a student who was absent for good reason though.
Yet, too many people negatively affected by these policies will continue to vote for them, and against their own interests. Why?
Most people don't understand politics, left, right, no sense of ideologically driven positions, no critical faculty.
Back on track?
Where the track is taking NZ is never mentioned; doubtless the the destination is presumed to be success in purely material terms. The price of that approach is environmental destruction.
Noticed the msm pushing the angle our xmas shutdown is an economic 'handbrake' lately.
Maybe some holidays will get removed to help get NZ back on track as they go all out in 2026.
Flying a kite for removing a week of paid annual leave?
Ignoring the real problems and going for a "quick magical fix". How very, National!