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- Date published:
5:38 pm, April 5th, 2026 - 19 comments
Categories: chris bishop, Christopher Luxon, erica stanford, national, nicola willis, same old national -
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Spare a thought for Chris Bishop.
He was in my view the potential future National leader we should fear the most. He had managed to win the Hutt seat twice. Given that it should be heartland Labour that was no mean feat.
He was also the National politician most likely to reach over and gain those mythical centrist swing votes.
But his demise has been swift and his political career now looks terminal.
There were two things that brought about his end.
First he had the temerity to require that Auckland City should be a well designed city with intensification around the rail stations that will most benefit from the Central Rail Link.
To an urbanist this makes perfect sense. You get people living around major transport hubs. That way the desire to drive is lessened and there is more road space for commerce and essential services.
The problem was that he upset the dwellers of the inner Eastern Suburbs and they started to apply their considerable political power.
Christopher Luxon was spooked, even though Plan Change 120 would have seen *fewer* new homes in his electorate.
I get the feeling that Simeon Brown, eyeing the prospect of taking one of his competitors out, jumped at the opportunity to dent Bishop’s credentials.
There was also the ham fisted attempted coup that Bishop ran against Luxon late last year. Reports are that Bishop had two problems, only a third of the Caucus was prepared to support him, and the only possible deputies, Nicola Willis and Erica Stanford, both ruled out taking any action.
So the coup failed.
But as a further sign of Luxon’s inept leadership he did not act purposely and decisively to respond. He wanted six months before doing anything. And this happened at a time when the Taxpayers Union and Matthew Hooton were on the war path undermining his leadership. And he had the consequences of a disastrous poll to manage. And there were widespread leaks about panicked calls within National’s ranks last weekend before the reshuffle was announced.
Onto the reshuffle and Bishop was relieved of his roles as Leader of the House, Associate Sports Minister and National’s campaign chair. That will hurt. He was given the Attorney General role but that does not make it better.
But it makes you wonder why Luxon had to wait six months before doing this. Is he that lacking in control of his caucus that he had no other option?
His leadership skills are getting worse.
This oil crisis has given him a gilt edged opportunity to make his mark as Prime Minister.
Instead of this he came out with this tosh which was Donald Trump quality it was that bad.
In his article he said this:
Due to ongoing global supply-chain disruptions, fuel and other prices are likely to remain higher, and will possibly keep increasing, for a longer period.
This Government is very conscious that getting economic management wrong during this crisis will have long-lasting consequences that are difficult to unwind.
We saw this in the aftermath of Covid-19 where short-term decisions led to debt reaching $120 billion and inflation hitting a 32-year high which saw mortgage rates and other prices skyrocket. Kiwis are still grappling with the effects of that today.
National wants to ensure those mistakes are avoided. Responsible economic management matters most when the world is volatile and unpredictable.
But get this. Net core Crown debt may have been $120 billion during Covid as Labour battled a one in 100 year pandemic and a global supply crisis. The debt is now $188 billion. Even the Taxpayers Union are appalled.
I am pleased to see the end of Bishop’s chances of being next leader. That leaves National with persevering with Luxon or swapping over to Willis who has lost every electorate campaign she has ever run in. Apart from her ability to open her mouth and say stuff that on deeper analysis is not true she has no redeeming features.
But spare a thought for poor Chris Bishop. With current polling he will lose Hutt South and has a rather large chance of not being elected on the list.
He would be an excellent next Chair of NZTA, since he's clearly being eased out/overburdened until he quits.
Bishop has also done exceedingly well for his own electorate in transport spending now and many years into the future:
– Te Ara Tupua that huge cycleway+seawall from Petone to Wellington (opening in May)
– The massive Lower Hutt Riverlink projects, including Melling Station upgrades
– The new Petone to Grenada Road of National Significance
This guy delivers like the milkman when it comes to his own electorate.
He just chose the wrong party.
He gave the hatchet job on Kainga Ora to the upper valley milkman Bill English (he inspired by Poets Block decided to study literature and a cold winters morning would have led to dreams of a warmer Pacific embrace).
Such is the path to the Beehive in the city where they once made matches.
So many Christopher's. If there is to be 3 of the name as Prime Minister, will the next now be Penk? And of the two who have been, or still are, which will have a second term?
"Bishop has also done exceedingly well for his own electorate in transport spending now and many years into the future:"
There will be no Melling Station upgrade for along time, the Station has been moved closer to Petone. An old building parked inside the worksite.
You now have to travel even further to pick up the train for anyone on the Eastern Hills.
The new Petone to Grenada Road of National Significance: really !?
Putting the bulldozer through not 1 not 2 not 3 but 4 scenic reserves.
I think, they sat around the table at NZTA with the the question: what option (out of 4) goes through the most reserves?
FYI these reserves were planted by volunteers over many years. With among them mature Matai – that now will be bulldoze down..together with its birth life and insect life.
Bishop has shown once again doesn't give iota for green spaces.
If you were to live anywhere between Wgtn and Upper Hutt: people are pretty irritated. Getting to a place takes now 2- 3 times as long. A 15min trip will take you now 30-45min. And that needs to go on for the next 6 years.
What are you smoking Ad?
Not what Bishop was selling.
Bishop is one of those ones that doesn’t believe in God. He’s amoral. He’s deepest blue. He decided to be a dick about Te Reo at the NZ music awards. That’s not identity politics, it’s shitting on NZ. He just does it different to Simeon Brown.
Sure he can give houses, as he takes them away. He can give the new Think Big, that approves nothing because it is full of dodgy, dodgy complaining pricks with dodgy, dodgy projects that are bad for New Zealand.
He likes Shihad more than being anti-vax or anti-abortion. That doesn’t mean you overlook him selling tobacco or gutting public housing initiatives.
I very much look forward to the sequel “Queen takes pawn’, after 7 Nov.
Luxon is most likely in Damage Control. His rankings in the recent polls are atrocious and deservedly so.
He is too often coming across as a Frequently Missing In Action part-time prime minister. He recently said on Nationwide TV that he is the CEO when he should have said prime minister of New Zealand.
That comment probably went down like a bucket of cold sick to many.
Recently he claimed he doesn't take advice and that appears clearly in his failure to be able to deal with situations like a Crisis.
In a way I feel sorry for Chris Bishop because it looks like he has been thrown under a bus whilst the Sycophantic and Self-Serving Brown gets all the Cherries on top of the political pie.
I don't see much of a great future let alone a Great Year(as Luxon called 2026 in January this year)for National. It could well be in for a hiding to its total destruction.
Because of John Key National has backed the wrong horse when it has come to Luxon. I often wondered why he never appears on Q&A with Jack Tame and I have come to the conclusion that he lacks the Mental Intellect and Capacity to be able to answer Questions that he hasn't been taught and learnt by Rote.
He is prime minister On Paper Only. At the first sign of an event eg a Fuel Crisis or a Weather Event; he buggers off somewhere else where he can take advantage of the photo opportunities and lack of need to say anything intelligent.
I have no more love for Bishop than for Luxon, but I can't agree with the conclusion here.
Going through the steps …
1) Luxon to be replaced? 90% chance. No party in power ever chooses election defeat. Or even a paper-thin win (for ACT and NZF), but National losing many MPs. Self-interest requires change.
2) Bishop's chances of being the replacement … I have no inside info here, but I'd guess around 50-50. Simeon Brown might be preferred by caucus, but not the voters. Mark Mitchell next best option (again, for them, not me).
3) If Bishop is not leader before the election, he will be after it. Even if Luxon clings to power he will be even weaker, and dumped after "a decent interval". Increasing or at least holding the party vote is expected of any 1st term PM (Clark, Key, Ardern).
If National are in opposition, Bishop is the obvious choice.
His career and ambitions are very much on track.
I was going to make a new comment, basically the same as yours, Observer, so I am responding to yours.
Luxon has banished Bishop to the sidelines, and maybe he won't get in next time, but he could still be National's man for the Hutt and remain valid to the party itself.
He will have 3 years, unfettered by being part of Luxon's Shakesperean tragedy that is his government. Meanwhile, Simeon Brown will have blotted his own copybook by being not as good a campaign manager as Bishop (see below) and Willis will be seen as (to borrow one of Luxon's words) "unhelpful" to the party's chances of being re-elected.
Luxon has ignored the old political cliche "…keep your friends close and your enemies closer" and maybe that will work for him, but I think appointing Brown as campaign manager will be a big mistake.
Brown seems to me to put Luxon on a pedestal, at least outwardly, and so I imagine the campaign he runs will include Luxon, as in "Vote Luxon" when their best chance is "Vote National". Like the real Pee-wee Herman, his campaign is likely to reflect the attitude he has shown with Vote Health, high-level and light-weight.
Plus, whoever gets to manage the campaign (Brown, obviously) has to stop Luxon from tripping over his own shoelaces and that would take someone with the experience to be leader in his/her own right, to anticipate the pitfalls even Luxon can't see.
So, once the shock of being sidelined wore off, in Bishop's place, I would see myself as pretty lucky: 1. Offering myself to be a core part of National's push to be re-elected, 2. Against my wishes, moved to the sidelines, 3. …and therefore blameless in the train-wreck that followed, 4. Young enough to use the next 3 years to be the Winston Churchill to Luxon's Neville Chamberlain.
Of course, the above is an opinion based on a core belief that the current polls continue and that Winston knows what people think of Luxon's government and won't want to be seen to be the reason for its resurgence, post-election.
Just because Brown is from an Auckland electorate doesn’t mean he understands Auckland. The inner leafy suburbs have shafted Plan 120. They vote National/ACT anyway.
The rest of Auckland will pay the price in more sprawl, and more congestion. Not exactly vote winners.
Bishop is cunning. He's presently recalibrating.
Simeon Brown is unpalatable and in any case, will stick in the public's craw once he requires us to swallow something he's not able to sugar-coat sufficiently.
Luxon's a cracked egg but he'll brave it out till he's told to go. His party engineers knew his weakness from the get-go; his removal will have been well-mapped.
Exactly, he'll be back in spades. His party knows there's nobody else and rolling Luxon will become easier as each day passes, Luxon will guarantee that by being himself. His pathetic reshuffle has helped Bishop's leadership campaign, as well as his own demise, both at the same time. Brilliant strategy…
Has he actually been demoted, given his appointment as attorney general and his retention of a few other ministerial roles.
It was probably meant to be a demotion but I guess you could say Luxon stuffed that up as well. It must be frustrating being a nat MP knowing that everything your leader touches turns to shit.
It was probably meant to be a demotion but I guess you could say Luxon stuffed that up as well. It must be frustrating being a nat MP knowing that everything your leader touches turns to shit.
It was probably meant to be a demotion but I guess you could say Luxon stuffed that up as well. It must be frustrating being a nat MP knowing that everything your leader touches turns to shit.
Say it 3 times and it becomes true 🙂
Luxon's "difficulty" in knowing if he had any Māori MPs in Cabinet hurt him.
Didn't mean to post 3 times something went wrong maybe TS will delete the extras.
Re. Luxon, yes that would’ve hurt. It kind of feels like he's past the point of no return, that every time he opens his mouth all that even the general un-politicised populace hear is "don't respect me I'm talking shit", so the uncontrollable tailspin begins.
That’s the problem with English-first and Luxon forgot about Pāora Goldsmith.
To be fair to Luxon he has asked every New Zealander to run his head for good luck with the cyclone and the war!
In an extended speech he set out the nature of the contact, if it was appropriate to commission statues to speed up the head rubbing and that all these things were a total free pass, so there was no point rating this government and everyone should just vote them back anyway.
‘Mostly, some people when it’s clear, but not all the people like some or any Maoris.’ He concluded as advisors quickly rushed him away without questions.